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Old 08-19-2018, 10:13 AM   #1
FakeNameChanged
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Handicap this Race

Handicap Race 1 at Laurel-8/19-1-1/16M Turf- Clm 16,000 n2L

Weather is threatening today, so very likely this will come off Turf-I will “attempt” to hcp race using Calibr. Hcp. Red Scan technique. I didn’t cherry pick this race as you will see from all the variations.
Belle’ N Tonic 6/1 ML (MTO)-no gains for red scan in last 2r’s

Congrats Graduate 15/1 ML- Gained 5L’s in stretch l.r. But fin. 7(13), too far back? 71 SR at this distance and turf. 2LR also gained 1.5 L’s in stretch but fin. 7(8.5) at 5.5f T.

Beyond Forever. 20/1 ML-nothing to report, last 2 races on turf, dismal fin. 9th by ave 36 bl’s. Going back to earlier in year, this horse is looking to run back on dirt. He ran 2nd last fall in the Md. Million, where he stumbled at the start. Will consider on dirt.

Flashndynmite 6/1 ML LR gained 3.25 Ls in stretch at 5.5f-T 3 -79 SR-3rd-3.25 bl’s
Nada 2nd LR.

Bodega Bay 7/2 ML-LR gained 7.25 L’s fin. 3rd(2.25 bls) 83 SR-today’s dist. And surface
2LR gained 6.25 L’s in stretch fin. 8th (6.5 BLs)-69 SR same dist. And surf.

Stillsexyatsixty 15/1 ML- LR gained 6 L’s Turn/Move and won MC16 in the slop(off turf) 67SR)
2LR-gained 1.75 L’s Turn/Move at this dist. And turf.

Splendor Gal 5/1 ML-no gains to report in last two races but both on 1-1/6M on turf 74SR l.r.

Aunt Mitzi-20/1 ML LR gained 2 in stretch but fin. 10th by 10 BL’s? 64 SR. 2LR-gained 3.5L’s T/M + also gained 3.75 fin. 1st(2.25) 68 SR

Angelinthemorning 6/1 ML-LR gained 2L’s T/M +G 3.5 in stretch fin. 1st(5)-75Sr-Dirt 2LR gained 2.75L’s in stretch fin. 5th(7)-59 SR-this dist. And turf.

Capucine 5/2 ML- LR gained 2.25 stretch fin. 2nd 84SR. 2LR Gained 1L on turn/move-fin. 2nd same dist. And turf both races. Beat in LR by ½ L, but was 4 wide. Probable favorite along with on turf.
Ridgemont High-10/1 ML .dismal last race at OC25K, but 1st after 10 month layoff. Lightly raced and back class.
So who has Turn/Move and who has Stretch gain?
T/M-
gain of 6 and 1.75 L’s in both last 2 R’s
gain of 3.5 L’s in 2nd LR
gain of 2L’ in LR
gain of 1L in 2nd LR

Stretch Gain-
3.25 LR at 5.5f
7.25 anr 6.5 L’s in last 2 Rs
2.0 and 3.5 L’s last 2 Rs,but lr. Was 10th by 10 bl’s-
3.5 and 2.75 in last 2 R’s
2.25 L’s in LR,-2nd

Since last race for all were at diff. Dist’s and surfaces, I used LP from Bris instead of final fraction:
LP-66 dirt-58 turf
LP 85 turf
LP 49
LP 84 @ 5.5f; 73 Tampa turf
LP 91 and 90
LP 71 dirt 67 turf
LP 65/70
LP 77/83
LP 74 dirt/67 Tf
LP 77/67
LP 62 dirt/73 dirt
So do we give more credit to a T/M over a stretch gain? gained on the turn in both of his last two races, his LP is suspect if you compare to who gained in the stretch in his last two races. looks like he could also get in the mix with his last race gain, LP and tougher class of competition. is the only horse who gained on both the turn and the stretch in last race, although on the dirt. Angles plays are always much clearer when you only have one or two who qualify.
While it's often disparaged here, I will probably attend the OTB today and see if there are any toteboard signals for this race. I have found Lrl. along with Parx and GP to be good toteboard tracks. Will post my findings on that note pre-race.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 08-19-2018 at 10:16 AM.
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Old 08-19-2018, 12:14 PM   #2
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Old 08-19-2018, 12:29 PM   #3
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I'm taking the based on fitness level points and a big price. Blinkers on. WP

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Old 08-19-2018, 12:38 PM   #4
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I'm taking the based on fitness level points and a big price. WP
Not to mention, back to a trainer that had him running well and the blinkers come back off.
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Old 08-19-2018, 12:46 PM   #5
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Win and


Ex Box , ,
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Old 08-19-2018, 12:49 PM   #6
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going for longshot - horse likes grass at laurel get positive rider switch.
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Old 08-19-2018, 01:09 PM   #7
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3 8 9 5 6
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Old 08-19-2018, 01:29 PM   #8
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Win and


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Nice! The 6 was all over the track. The stewards got it right.
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Old 08-19-2018, 01:31 PM   #9
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Nice! The 6 was all over the track. The stewards got it right.

Thanks. I didn't bet so I really didn't care. It was the right call but you'd think that was a Breeder's Cup race or something for how long it took to decide.
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Old 08-19-2018, 03:14 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
Handicap Race 1 at Laurel-8/19-1-1/16M Turf- Clm 16,000 n2L

Weather is threatening today, so very likely this will come off Turf-I will “attempt” to hcp race using Calibr. Hcp. Red Scan technique. I didn’t cherry pick this race as you will see from all the variations.
Belle’ N Tonic 6/1 ML (MTO)-no gains for red scan in last 2r’s

Congrats Graduate 15/1 ML- Gained 5L’s in stretch l.r. But fin. 7(13), too far back? 71 SR at this distance and turf. 2LR also gained 1.5 L’s in stretch but fin. 7(8.5) at 5.5f T.

Beyond Forever. 20/1 ML-nothing to report, last 2 races on turf, dismal fin. 9th by ave 36 bl’s. Going back to earlier in year, this horse is looking to run back on dirt. He ran 2nd last fall in the Md. Million, where he stumbled at the start. Will consider on dirt.

Flashndynmite 6/1 ML LR gained 3.25 Ls in stretch at 5.5f-T 3 -79 SR-3rd-3.25 bl’s
Nada 2nd LR.

Bodega Bay 7/2 ML-LR gained 7.25 L’s fin. 3rd(2.25 bls) 83 SR-today’s dist. And surface
2LR gained 6.25 L’s in stretch fin. 8th (6.5 BLs)-69 SR same dist. And surf.

Stillsexyatsixty 15/1 ML- LR gained 6 L’s Turn/Move and won MC16 in the slop(off turf) 67SR)
2LR-gained 1.75 L’s Turn/Move at this dist. And turf.

Splendor Gal 5/1 ML-no gains to report in last two races but both on 1-1/6M on turf 74SR l.r.

Aunt Mitzi-20/1 ML LR gained 2 in stretch but fin. 10th by 10 BL’s? 64 SR. 2LR-gained 3.5L’s T/M + also gained 3.75 fin. 1st(2.25) 68 SR

Angelinthemorning 6/1 ML-LR gained 2L’s T/M +G 3.5 in stretch fin. 1st(5)-75Sr-Dirt 2LR gained 2.75L’s in stretch fin. 5th(7)-59 SR-this dist. And turf.

Capucine 5/2 ML- LR gained 2.25 stretch fin. 2nd 84SR. 2LR Gained 1L on turn/move-fin. 2nd same dist. And turf both races. Beat in LR by ½ L, but was 4 wide. Probable favorite along with on turf.
Ridgemont High-10/1 ML .dismal last race at OC25K, but 1st after 10 month layoff. Lightly raced and back class.
So who has Turn/Move and who has Stretch gain?
T/M-
gain of 6 and 1.75 L’s in both last 2 R’s
gain of 3.5 L’s in 2nd LR
gain of 2L’ in LR
gain of 1L in 2nd LR

Stretch Gain-
3.25 LR at 5.5f
7.25 anr 6.5 L’s in last 2 Rs
2.0 and 3.5 L’s last 2 Rs,but lr. Was 10th by 10 bl’s-
3.5 and 2.75 in last 2 R’s
2.25 L’s in LR,-2nd

Since last race for all were at diff. Dist’s and surfaces, I used LP from Bris instead of final fraction:
LP-66 dirt-58 turf
LP 85 turf
LP 49
LP 84 @ 5.5f; 73 Tampa turf
LP 91 and 90
LP 71 dirt 67 turf
LP 65/70
LP 77/83
LP 74 dirt/67 Tf
LP 77/67
LP 62 dirt/73 dirt
So do we give more credit to a T/M over a stretch gain? gained on the turn in both of his last two races, his LP is suspect if you compare to who gained in the stretch in his last two races. looks like he could also get in the mix with his last race gain, LP and tougher class of competition. is the only horse who gained on both the turn and the stretch in last race, although on the dirt. Angles plays are always much clearer when you only have one or two who qualify.
While it's often disparaged here, I will probably attend the OTB today and see if there are any toteboard signals for this race. I have found Lrl. along with Parx and GP to be good toteboard tracks. Will post my findings on that note pre-race.
So they ran after the was DQ for interfering in the stretch. ran 5th, and led for 3/4's into the stretch. Looks like 's LP of 91 and 90 was deciding factor, none of others even close. Not sure if that's how you separate contenders using Jim Lehane's method.
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Old 08-19-2018, 03:40 PM   #11
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3 8 9 5 6
Generally the tote will give a clearer signal, at least to me. The opened as the favorite, and then the both and who were 20-1 ML showed strong betting in exactas and doubles. That made some sense with the who ran against tougher in OC25 last race, but 's last couple on the turf were dismal and this made no sense. I may put Beyond Forever on a watch alert, as he hugged the rail and made no progress, but still only finished about 3-1/2 lengths from the winner which was a 28 to 39 length improvement over his last two. Someone clearly expected some improvement at the windows, it just didn't turn out as well as they'd expected. after leading for 3/4 got in tight in the stretch, was steadied around 1/16 pole. But it probably would not have mattered to who passed half the field in the stretch.
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Old 08-19-2018, 08:12 PM   #12
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Laurel must lead the nation in scratches per number of entries. It seems like a waste of time to handicap this track.
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Old 08-19-2018, 09:26 PM   #13
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Laurel must lead the nation in scratches per number of entries. It seems like a waste of time to handicap this track.
It's the same everywhere. A trainer is talked into entering a horse so the race goes, knowing that he'll be a scratch on raceday. In return he'll get a race written for one of his horses.
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Old 08-20-2018, 08:07 PM   #14
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It's the same everywhere. A trainer is talked into entering a horse so the race goes, knowing that he'll be a scratch on raceday. In return he'll get a race written for one of his horses.
The people I'm w/in partnerships do this-so I'm being a hypocrite. Laurel just frustrates the hell out of me. On many occasions Ive spent my time handicapping the races there and it will be fast/firm and a 9 horse field will scratch down to 7, etc. Its like an imaginary force that refuses a race to go off w/more than 7 horses (5F turf races, the exception-races I hate by the way). I boycott this place and some of my friends refuse to play there, also.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me

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