Multi-race wagers @ THE SPA! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 01:01 PM

Early p5 caveman

$0.50 P5 8, 10, 12, 13
$0.50 P5 4, 8, 13
$0.50 P5 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 3, 4, 5, 7
Wager Total $720.00

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 01:04 PM

multiple factors are moving in the same direction to encourage a caveman ticket (i'm hungover, some vulnerable favorites in the sequence, and inadequate prep time) , luckily I'm a few grand ahead of posted p-5s for the last few days.

I'll hit this one, and also put more thought as we go along.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 01:10 PM

That's what you look for - multiple factors moving in the same direction.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 01:33 PM

No esoteric insights in Race 2

I didn't use the

, and although $70K isn't a ton for a race horse(if this were a softer race or a statebred maybe the scale would be different), it was in May, so there may be some talent there. He's also a runt. Maybe he has quick early speed but more likely out-matched here.

didn't use the

homebred MTO with decent works, and is a nice size, but looks very green

didn't use the

turf bottom but has experience in a dirt sprint off-turf. Actually looks solid on the track. Scares me the most, but I'm not hedging in the 2nd race. If he beats me, I'll pick myself back up.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I didn't use the

, and although $70K isn't a ton for a race horse(if this were a softer race or a statebred maybe the scale would be different), it was in May, so there may be some talent there. He's also a runt. Maybe he has quick early speed but more likely out-matched here.

Got lucky. The little guy did in fact have good speed (they sure didn't pay for horseflesh), but I was bailed out by an allowance-level performance from the Chad Brown FTS. He's the heavy chalk and was singled by many, but I only went 3-deep and am happy to move to race-3.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 02:07 PM

r3 Forge is scary , oh well..

$0.50 TRI4, 6, 7
$0.50 TRI2, 3, 5
$0.50 TRI1
Wager Total $4.50 leverage bet

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

r3 Forge is scary , oh well..

$0.50 TRI4, 6, 7
$0.50 TRI2, 3, 5
$0.50 TRI1
Wager Total $4.50 leverage bet

couldn't get the trifecta as the 2,5 both came up in tandem (4-5-2-1) $4.50 down the drain.

Good news = alive after 3

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 02:16 PM

I feel like Babe Ruth in 1925. I'm hitting 25 homers and batting .290 and putting ass in the seats, but the womanizing and prohibition-era alcohol is catching up to me and I can do much better.

Just try to throw a fastball by me.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 02:49 PM

survived the first four legs...

alive to 3, 4, 5, 7

have to look at probables and some of the exclusions to decide whether any adaptations are necessary.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 02:52 PM

didn't use

,

, or

...

from public odds;

is the threat

still have to look...

Lemon Drop Husker · 08-18-2018, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

didn't use

,

, or

...

from public odds;

is the threat

still have to look...

Well done RF.

Some reasonable hedging if you are into doing that.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 03:16 PM

is a good bet-against, but I want to dutch/hege this. Manny Franco really came up short the day Johnny V. was out for the Arlington Million, but has been riding with a chip on his shoulder since that disappointing day. Maybe someone goofy like the

will go to the lead and the

could inherit a winning position with a good ride...

$120 WIN

Lemon Drop Husker · 08-18-2018, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

is a good bet-against, but I want to dutch/hege this. Manny Franco really came up short the day Johnny V. was out for the Arlington Million, but has been riding with a chip on his shoulder since that disappointing day. Maybe someone goofy like the

will go to the lead and the

could inherit a winning position with a good ride...

$120 WIN

Just tell us you at least had $40 or $50 to W on the

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 03:25 PM

Wagered: $844.50
Returned: $0.00

wins leg 5 @ 20-1. Looked 6th worst of 7 fillies. Early speed performs better than it should. This horse looked really bad on the track, stiffly kicking her right leg forward as she moved in the parade, as if she was kicking a soccer ball or something. Sharp claim for Contessa. Have to give credit.

Tough beat on what looked like a winning ticket with the 4 favs paying fairly and the 5th most-likely hedged for break-even.

The beat goes on.

Robert Fischer · 08-18-2018, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Just tell us you at least had $40 or $50 to W on the

I don't hedge for the heck of it (unless I have a limited voucher at an ADW and not willing to walk out empty handed, then i hedge 'em all for something).

Hindsight is 20/20? Hindsight is 20/1

humbling game