“Metaphysics” my ass.
This thread reeks of unadulterated conjecture on so many levels it’s ridiculous.
Congrats to those who have common sense enough to recognize the obvious.
(Nothing personal Dave) But Beyond that, I’m still trying to figure out why any cognizant player would be concerned about their game and this sort of “whale’s tale”.
“Metaphysics” my ass.
This thread reeks of unadulterated conjecture on so many levels it’s ridiculous.
Congrats to those who have common sense enough to recognize the obvious.
(Nothing personal Dave) But Beyond that, I’m still trying to figure out why any cognizant player would be concerned about their game and this sort of “whale’s tale”.
I believe 'metaphysics' was intended as a euphemism.
“Metaphysics” my ass.
This thread reeks of unadulterated conjecture on so many levels it’s ridiculous.
Congrats to those who have common sense enough to recognize the obvious.
(Nothing personal Dave) But Beyond that, I’m still trying to figure out why any cognizant player would be concerned about their game and this sort of “whale’s tale”.
Yup, whales are just a myth. All that money is being bet by mom & pop $2.
Maybe leeches was an uncalled for comment on my part.
What I wonder is whether they see the same thing Dave is seeing, that they are starting to butt heads and maybe the whole show comes to an end in 2 years. 5 years. 10. Whatever. And then wondering if they promote the industry in a way that would grow it so that they aren't ultimately on top of one another.
I'd imagine if Dave sees it, they do also, and the first to make adjustments and stay in front of the curve ends up surviving the longest/strongest.
I have to be honest, if any haven't noticed, I don't entirely understand what they are doing aside from spreading a ton of money all over the place, but I find it incredibly interesting. You gotta respect those that master their craft.
Give him some credit...he was at least able to restrain himself from bringing up Hong Kong again.
If I had a dollar for every time Nitro talked about how great Hong Kong racing is and for every time Biggestal bragged about how much money he's making on the NJ betting exchange, I could retire to Tahiti and not have to worry about the damn whales anymore.
Hey Dave, thanks for the response and the effort to correct the perception I put forward.
Two questions, and very likely you've answered them in the past.
1) How many teams do you feel are out there that you would classify as whales?
2) Are any of them proactive in the support of the industry, or are they just very, very, very big leaches disguised as whales? It would seem the models they have so laboriously constructed wouldn't work in any other endeavor, so the health of the over all horse racing industry would seem of some import to them.
Thanks in advance.
I wouldn't count on this. While I agree that they should support the industry, as an increase in handle, and less intelligent handle, is in their best interest, the fundamental principles they apply are transferable to any other sport/market. Granted, the exact model, or even structure of model (Conditional Logit), probably won't be used, the fundamental idea of predicting performance and predicting expected price stays the same. If I were running a team with intelligent quants and programmers, I'd be trying to expand in to as many sports as possible....
Maybe leeches was an uncalled for comment on my part.
What I wonder is whether they see the same thing Dave is seeing, that they are starting to butt heads and maybe the whole show comes to an end in 2 years. 5 years. 10. Whatever. And then wondering if they promote the industry in a way that would grow it so that they aren't ultimately on top of one another.
I'd imagine if Dave sees it, they do also, and the first to make adjustments and stay in front of the curve ends up surviving the longest/strongest.
I have to be honest, if any haven't noticed, I don't entirely understand what they are doing aside from spreading a ton of money all over the place, but I find it incredibly interesting. You gotta respect those that master their craft.
In 5 or 10 years, I'm imagining Dave's head floating above his trademark blue computer body, to be like HAL 9000 in 2001 Space Odyssey. Late money from whales on the exchanges as horses leave the gate will elicit a permanent erasure from the laser eyes in the DAVE-9000. Bets made thru DAVE-9000 HSH will only go up in odds.
__________________ One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
I enjoy publicity simply because it appeals to my theatrical side.
I've got 3 reputation points and I'm burning them here.
Excel, start with the Explanation Tab.
The values red circled can be supplanted with accurate dollar amounts, then the math works proportionally, therefore the calculations on the right will be accurate to the decimal.
Somewhere in this thread a person posted an excel with odds @ 30 seconds and @ Final odds. That data is our study baseline data, its located in the excel as SHEET 1. Races, 3, 4 & 5 at Gulfstream July 28th are tabbed.
With that we can with say with some certainty that a whale was in Race 4 at Gulfstream Park on July 28th and it bet # 8, His odds went from 1-1 to .50/1 in the last flash of betting.
We can also define a range of the dollar amount and what % of the 8's Win Pool that it was. In this case, between 40 and 58% of the # 8's total win pool was bet in the last 30 seconds.
Remember the mythical pool value does not matter, real pool data will work.
All the dirty work is in Tab Race 4.
... which they deserve by reason of pushing through more volume.
....
....
The bottom line is that these guys win because they deserve to win. They deserve to win because they invested time and money to make it happen.
As for the question, "Are they good for racing?" Of course not. They draw money out of the system just like a winning poker player is like an extra rake at the table.
But what is the industry to do? Bar players who win too much?
If the playing field were truly level, I don't believe most players would have a problem with winners becoming more competitive, and "earning" their profits through hard work.
But the playing field isn't level - most notably in the area of rebates. And the profits reek of unfair insider advantages.
This has been discussed in great detail in the past, and I believe the fears of a death spiral for the sport overall are becoming justified. The data presented here suggests the whales/syndicates have become so sharp, they are starting to eat into each other's profits/edges.
Even if racing were somehow blessed by vast reductions in takeout, a sane anti-drug policy and tax reforms to attract new owners, with the whales so firmly entrenched I don't see a turnaround unless the whales and varying rebates were banned as well. And a modernized tote system and higher quality PPs wouldn't hurt either....
Well Dave, at least this thread got a few "outside the box" ideas tossed around....
I enjoy publicity simply because it appeals to my theatrical side.
I've got 3 reputation points and I'm burning them here.
Excel, start with the Explanation Tab.
The values red circled can be supplanted with accurate dollar amounts, then the math works proportionally, therefore the calculations on the right will be accurate to the decimal.
Somewhere in this thread a person posted an excel with odds @ 30 seconds and @ Final odds. That data is our study baseline data, its located in the excel as SHEET 1. Races, 3, 4 & 5 at Gulfstream July 28th are tabbed.
With that we can with say with some certainty that a whale was in Race 4 at Gulfstream Park on July 28th and it bet # 8, His odds went from 1-1 to .50/1 in the last flash of betting.
We can also define a range of the dollar amount and what % of the 8's Win Pool that it was. In this case, between 40 and 58% of the # 8's total win pool was bet in the last 30 seconds.
Remember the mythical pool value does not matter, real pool data will work.
All the dirty work is in Tab Race 4.
I was hoping somebody gave this toy a whirl and calculated some real pool data. I can customize the math if anyone see's opportunity in the concept.
In terms of keeping with the theme thread of "edge" on Whales.
What requires examination is the pools following the races where we identify a whale appeared. Particularity at small pool circuits.
In my mock example, 39K+ was bet on the 4th at Gulfstream, and the wager LOST! That is key. Because we now know where $40,000 of the whales money is. Its in the hands of the group of people betting the 5th race at Gulfstream park.
Knowing that an artificial 40,000 dollars was injected into the betting hands of X people, is also power.
@
