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Old 08-03-2018, 12:16 AM   #196
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Okay. From now on, the HSH is beyond any criticism. Let us know if you should happen to use any OTHER piece of software profitably, in the future...so we can stop criticizing THAT software too.
You should spend less time trying to be cute with me, and more time moderating off-topic!
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:20 AM   #197
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So, to repeat my genuine question that I have asked above, what are the advantages that HSH brings to its user and what kind of data - metrics - algorithms is using?
The biggest advantage, for me, is being able to mold HSH to fit MY style of play and MY current objectives.

HSH isn't telling me HOW I should play, or demanding I handicap a certain way.

That's what I find most useful about the program.

The question about data, metrics, algorithms, etc., I am not going to tackle. First off, there are just way too many things going on in HSH. Most of the stuff I don't even use. Which is great. Maybe I will incorporate some of the other capabilities later on. But being a program that I can mold into my way of handicapping tells you there is a LOT going on.

Again, I think Dave would be best to answer the second part of your question.
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:53 AM   #198
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The biggest advantage, for me, is being able to mold HSH to fit MY style of play and MY current objectives.

HSH isn't telling me HOW I should play, or demanding I handicap a certain way.

That's what I find most useful about the program.

The question about data, metrics, algorithms, etc., I am not going to tackle. First off, there are just way too many things going on in HSH. Most of the stuff I don't even use. Which is great. Maybe I will incorporate some of the other capabilities later on. But being a program that I can mold into my way of handicapping tells you there is a LOT going on.

Again, I think Dave would be best to answer the second part of your question.
Thanks for the response but as you understand it does not spread a lot of light in what I am asking here.

The fact that HSH can fit to your style and your current objectives indicates flexibility and customization which are characteristics of high quality software; still and without any intention to provoke, what you are saying here is very generic and blurry and does not help us to clarify what you are talking about.

Is this about proving hand crafted decision trees? Do you have access to macro-handicapping metrics that you can customize on demand? Is machine learning involved? Can you extend this software with macros and provide it with on demand data? Do you use probability calibration? What methods of data normalization you apply? These are just a few of the questions that you need to address to make the discussion interesting and important; otherwise I am afraid that what you are saying here cannot become the topic of a handicapping conversation but remains some type of a promotion of the specific software.
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Old 08-03-2018, 02:12 AM   #199
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How many times do I have to say this?

If you want answers to these questions, ask the developer. I'm not qualified to answer your questions. I'm just a poor schmuck trying to win some money at this game.

I'm not working on commission here, so I have no desire to "sell you" on anything. Or promote anything, other than the fact that HSH is working for me.

I don't have an advanced stats or math background, so I can't even begin to answer your questions adequately. It appears you think more highly of me than I am worthy.

I appreciate the flattery...
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Old 08-03-2018, 09:02 AM   #200
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
Since I got involved in the conversation, let me please clarify my point.

My impressions from speaking to Dave Schwartz in the past is that he is a very sharp mind not only as a handicapper and salesman but as a software developer as well. I believe that some of his ideas were very innovative when they were expressed and possibly some of them still remain ahead of our time. Having used some of his products I only have good words to say both about the quality of his work and the support he provided me with.

What I wrote above is not a criticism; I have just expressed some real questions that had to do with what PA is telling us, with the intention to spawn some interesting conversations and not a sterile quarrel that does not lead us anywhere.

So, to repeat my genuine question that I have asked above, what are the advantages that HSH brings to its user and what kind of data - metrics - algorithms is using?

Of course after I hear related information I will be in the position to either criticize or applause the approach; until then there is not enough evidence to state an opinion.
DL...

You might get some elevator music on this one.....

Other than the software owners , like Dave,Jeff,Ted, (who I've dealt with in the past) will be more than helpful.....as for the other users...mums the word.
No one wants to "give" out what took so long and hard on their part.
In forums and blogs , they will give you a vague and indirect answer if you ask a question pertaining to software.....but

CAN U BLAME THEM?

Mike
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Old 08-03-2018, 09:07 AM   #201
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Again, looking at this info a little closer, you're missing 29 payoffs of the 20195 races in 2018, and 1070 payoffs in 2010. I was trying to put some percentages together, but your data is flawed. Add up lines 1,3,5,6,7 in 2010 and you don't have nearly enough payoffs for the number of races you're quoting.


These were some quickie SQL statements so possibly wrong, but I think it has to do with the 10.01and 10, and 20.01and $20. That was the way the SQL statement were put in. The main issue was the $20 and up that was the center of the conversation.

Would have to verify once I get to my main computers sometime in the future.

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Old 08-03-2018, 09:38 AM   #202
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Delta,

I would be happy to start a different thread to address your questions.

However, you are not really a valid candidate for HSH are you?

If you list all the things you would need any software to do for you, and HSH had it would you reach in your pocket and actually buy it?

Do you visualize yourself as becoming a long-time user? I think not.

As far as addressing all your questions...

Quote:
Of course after I hear related information I will be in the position to either criticize or applause the approach; until then there is not enough evidence to state an opinion.
Even after you hear the "related information," you still will not be in the position to criticize or applaud because you are one of those people who have already decided you know the right way to handicap and are not open to change.

Such a person will never be successful with HSH and should not waste the time or money to pursue it. You must do it your way.

Your beliefs are all about math and large samples of data. Anything other than large samples (I believe) will have no value to you.

Any software that does not do it your way will have to be criticized by you.

HSH is about the process of one's handicapping. There is a huge element of "Does it work?"

The real point of HSH is the development of the process and the sub-processes. It is about handicapping races quickly, having the system automatically track the results, and then being able to look back at what is beating you and how you could improve.

For a guy who believes that every program should just solve two issues: "What's the hit rate?" and "What's the return?" - this program is not likely to be a good match.

Sure, we want those things, too. Just like losing weight is all about calories burned vs. calories consumed. (The kind of calories consumed matter as well.)

But enough of this. I will build such a post in the near future. Of course, when I post it, some people will complain because it is a blatant advertisement. LOL

"The nerve of that guy!"
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Old 08-03-2018, 09:50 AM   #203
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These were some quickie SQL statements so possibly wrong, but I think it has to do with the 10.01and 10, and 20.01and $20. That was the way the SQL statement were put in. The main issue was the $20 and up that was the center of the conversation.

Would have to verify once I get to my main computers sometime in the future.
This . I would say, is about 99.9 % correct.....sorry no 2010


JAN1 - AUG 2 2018

TOTAL RACES = 23,233

<= 1 = 3982 .......... 17 %
>1 & <= 4 = 11,565 .......... 50 %
>4 & <=9 = 5032 .......... 22 %
>9 = 2654 .......... 11 %

can you make a living on a 50% category?

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Old 08-03-2018, 10:05 AM   #204
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DL...

You might get some elevator music on this one.....

Other than the software owners , like Dave,Jeff,Ted, (who I've dealt with in the past) will be more than helpful.....as for the other users...mums the word.
No one wants to "give" out what took so long and hard on their part.
In forums and blogs , they will give you a vague and indirect answer if you ask a question pertaining to software.....but

CAN U BLAME THEM?

Mike
I am not asking from anyone to give out the details of his solution but for a meaningful discussion some details on the approach and the methods are necessary.

In our days and as far as data modeling goes the functionality of domain specific software should be limited on the collection and preprocessing of the data and possibly in the way they are presented to the algorithmic part of the solution.

I other words, the main role of domain specific software should be limited in the composition of some of the existing open sourced components who can do all the dirty job of solving the problem if passed with descriptive enough data or notify us about their failure and the need to discover more descriptive metrics.

Horse handicapping represents a difficult problem whose solution assumes the creation of a sophisticated and long pipeline of processing and simply summarizing the applied concepts and the tools used will not make any damage to the owner of a specific solution.

Following this line of thought, I have absolutely no problem to reveal what third party software I am using, what kind of data I am feeding it and even to publish a winning approach and algorithm; I will not be skeptic to do so, because it will be a very low coverage model (meaning it will be able to find very few bets) and also because I am sure that anyone who does not already know how to build it he will not be passionate enough to overcome losing streaks and simply will give it up.
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Old 08-03-2018, 10:14 AM   #205
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Delta,

Do you visualize yourself as becoming a long-time user? I think not.

Such a person will never be successful with HSH and should not waste the time or money to pursue it. You must do it your way.
Since my programming time is very expensive, if I decided that a specific piece of code is solving some of the problems I have still not solved I would not hesitate a second to spend a few hundred dollars on it, back test it and eventually adopt it usage instead of develop a custom solution that will cost me many hours of work.
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Old 08-03-2018, 11:27 AM   #206
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Since my programming time is very expensive, if I decided that a specific piece of code is solving some of the problems I have still not solved I would not hesitate a second to spend a few hundred dollars on it, back test it and eventually adopt it usage instead of develop a custom solution that will cost me many hours of work.
HSH is simply not the way you would do things.
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:05 PM   #207
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Hey Dave, thanks for the response and the effort to correct the perception I put forward.

Two questions, and very likely you've answered them in the past.

1) How many teams do you feel are out there that you would classify as whales?

2) Are any of them proactive in the support of the industry, or are they just very, very, very big leaches disguised as whales? It would seem the models they have so laboriously constructed wouldn't work in any other endeavor, so the health of the over all horse racing industry would seem of some import to them.

Thanks in advance.
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:15 PM   #208
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Hey Dave, thanks for the response and the effort to correct the perception I put forward.

Two questions, and very likely you've answered them in the past.

1) How many teams do you feel are out there that you would classify as whales?

2) Are any of them proactive in the support of the industry, or are they just very, very, very big leaches disguised as whales? It would seem the models they have so laboriously constructed wouldn't work in any other endeavor, so the health of the over all horse racing industry would seem of some import to them.

Thanks in advance.
If someone bets several hundred-million dollars a year at the races, then he is supporting the industry enough...even if he is doing it with a 50% discount on the takeout. Since these whales are actually WINNING the money that they make...you can hardly call them "leeches"...IMO.
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:19 PM   #209
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This . I would say, is about 99.9 % correct.....sorry no 2010


JAN1 - AUG 2 2018

TOTAL RACES = 23,233

<= 1 = 3982 .......... 17 %
>1 & <= 4 = 11,565 .......... 50 %
>4 & <=9 = 5032 .......... 22 %
>9 = 2654 .......... 11 %

can you make a living on a 50% category?



If you know when to strike, I would think so. You'd prefer to stay on the high end, and you'd have to be a very good handicapper.
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Old 08-03-2018, 12:23 PM   #210
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If someone bets several hundred-million dollars a year at the races, then he is supporting the industry enough...even if he is doing it with a 50% discount on the takeout. Since these whales are actually WINNING the money that they make...you can hardly call them "leeches"...IMO.
The way I understand it, they aren't winning it. They are playing for a high .90s ROI and taking profit for the most part in rebates.

I finished that book "Six Habits of Successful Bettors" and Dahlmann's story of leaving Maryland for Vegas, and the OTB he frequented laying off 32 employees due to the loss of his handle is very germain to this discussion.
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