Modern day angle players

[Capper Al]

Back in the day, angle players would wait for something like first time lasix or third race off a layout. Angles are easily understood but difficult to scan for if you don't have a software program to search them out. The payouts have also gone south. Many trainers try not to show their hand when they are going to strike to get higher odds for themselves when they win, so they make sure to avoid these angle patterns.

I have never been too much of an angle player. Maybe I'm just too lazy to scan the form or add it to my software code to-do list. For me, the opposite of an angle player is the formula player. These guys use their software programs or databases to add up some sort of system score that might get them the winner. This too is very difficult. One seems to have to choose which path to start off on because time is limited and in short supply. (My wife is always telling me that I spend too much time on the computer and on racing.)

In recent years, the line between the formula player and angle player has blurred. The once scan the form to find the angle has now been commingled by the record keepers. These guys might look for something like top recent class in a claiming route with better than average speed going off at odds of such and such for a value play. This isn't the E = MC^2 bunch of the formula crowd trying to calculate the winner, although these modern angle do use formulas. To me, these are modern day angle players looking for different combinations at odds. Good bye, first time lasix.

I'm still one of the formula players, maybe a relic or a computerized Paper and Pencil handicapper. What are your thoughts on these or other approaches to handicapping?

[Ocala Mike]

Still an angle player, and probably always will be. Favorite angles are second-timers in maiden races, turf to dirt, dropdowns, and long workouts. Of course, it pays to know trainer patterns watching these and pretty much every other angle. I am pretty good at visually scanning the DRF for possible angle plays.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Still an angle player, and probably always will be. Favorite angles are second-timers in maiden races, turf to dirt, dropdowns, and long workouts. Of course, it pays to know trainer patterns watching these and pretty much every other angle. I am pretty good at visually scanning the DRF for possible angle plays.

When you typically play, how many cards would you scan and about how long does it take you to scan them?

[thaskalos]

I shake my head when I see all the different categories of horseplayers that we see in the game today. "Comprehensive handicappers", "specialists", "speed handicappers", "class handicappers", "pace handicappers", "figure handicappers", "trip handicappers", "angle handicappers", "physicality handicappers", "trainer-stat handicappers", "tote-board handicappers", "hi-tech handicappers", "pencil-and-paper handicappers", etc.

It's all pretty foolish, if you ask me. To me...all the handicappers can be safely and accurately grouped in just two categories: Winners and losers.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I shake my head when I see all the different categories of horseplayers that we see in the game today. "Comprehensive handicappers", "specialists", "speed handicappers", "class handicappers", "pace handicappers", "figure handicappers, "trip handicappers", "physicality handicappers", "trainer-stat handicappers", "tote-board handicappers", "hi-tech handicappers", "pencil-and-paper handicappers", etc.

It's all pretty foolish, if you ask me. To me...all the handicappers can be safely and accurately grouped in just two categories: Winners and losers.

I'm going to guess from your previous postings that you are modern day angle player. You read the race conditions, look over the form (could be an electronic form like BRIS Ultimate), and figure your play based on your experience without creating or using an overall figure like BRIS Prime or Morning Line or point system. How far off am I?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I'm going to guess from your previous postings that you are modern day angle player. You read the race conditions, look over the form (could be an electronic form like BRIS Ultimate), and figure your play based on your experience without creating or using an overall figure like BRIS Prime or Morning Line or point system. How far off am I?

You are pretty far off. If you look at my Racing Form, you will see that the pages are filled with numbers in three different-colored inks. But I also know a winning player whose Racing Form is completely clean. The only numbers that he ever writes down are the bet combinations that he intends to wager on.

As I said...the main thing is to win.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I shake my head when I see all the different categories of horseplayers that we see in the game today. "Comprehensive handicappers", "specialists", "speed handicappers", "class handicappers", "pace handicappers", "figure handicappers", "trip handicappers", "angle handicappers", "physicality handicappers", "trainer-stat handicappers", "tote-board handicappers", "hi-tech handicappers", "pencil-and-paper handicappers", etc.

It's all pretty foolish, if you ask me. To me...all the handicappers can be safely and accurately grouped in just two categories: Winners and losers.

I am afraid that your closing statement is probably correct Thask..


STILL, I think Al's topic is not a bad one, as it touches a central point of handicapping and there is a lot of room for related discussions and debates..

I am convinced that handicapping angles (or factors or scenarios or whatever else you might want to call them) remain and always will be important for horse betting

What makes them very interesting, is the fact that whether they indeed affect the behaviour of a horse or not, handicapping factors certainly have a great impact to the value offered, mainly because they are believed by the vast majority of the bettors.

As an example, I always remember a race, where I had placed a very heavy bet, on a fillie who had just won her maiden, trying now graded company for her first time. I was lucky to win the bet at odds around 4-1 .

What remains vivid in my memory from this red-board, is the frustration of an old bettor (close to 70), who kept on complaining to his company, that horses who have just broke their maidens are not supposed to win back to back, especially against accomplished graded winners and how the game is rigged, fixed and full of scum...

The old man, is a perfect example of how, a fallacious handicapping angle, can become profitable even if it is completely wrong, assuming of course that enough people are making the bets based on it...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I am afraid that your closing statement is probably correct Thask..


STILL, I think Al's topic is not a bad one, as it touches a central point of handicapping and there is a lot of room for related discussions and debates..

I am convinced that handicapping angles (or factors or scenarios or whatever else you might want to call them) remain and always will be important for horse betting

What makes them very interesting, is the fact that whether they indeed affect the behaviour of a horse or not, handicapping factors certainly have a great impact to the value offered, mainly because they are believed by the vast majority of the bettors.

As an example, I always remember a race, where I had placed a very heavy bet, on a fillie who had just won her maiden, trying graded company for first time. I was lucky to win the bet at odds around 4-1 .

What remains vivid in my memory from this red-board, is the frustration of an old bettor (close to 70), who kept on complaining to his company, that horses who have just broke their maidens are not supposed to win back to back, especially against accomplished graded winners and how the game is rigged, fixed and full of scum...

The old man, is a perfect example of how fallacious handicapping angle can become profitable, even if it is completely wrong, assuming of course that enough people are making the bets based on it...

I like angle play...and use a couple of these angles myself. I call them "wake up factors"...because they identify certain hints that horses sometimes give when they are about to run a much improved race, which could not otherwise be determined by just reviewing the horse's recent starts. To me, horse racing is a little like golf. You carry a bunch of different clubs...and you let the different circumstances dictate which club you will use at any one time.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

To me, horse racing is a little like golf. You carry a bunch of different clubs...and you let the different circumstances dictate which club you will use at any one time.

NOMINATED POST OF THE QUARTER

[Capper Al]

Delta,

The angles once public changes the behavior of the crowd, and trainers more than the horses.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I like angle play...and use a couple of these angles myself. I call them "wake up factors"...because they identify certain hints that horses sometimes give when they are about to run a much improved race, which could not otherwise be determined by just reviewing the horse's recent starts. To me, horse racing is a little like golf. You carry a bunch of different clubs...and you let the different circumstances dictate which club you will use at any one time.

This, my friend, is a modern angle player's approach. You may color your form, but in the end you are not summing up or averaging any points for your final selections.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

This, my friend, is a modern angle player's approach. You may color your form, but in the end you are not summing up or averaging any points for your final selections.

"Averaging" is a terribly inaccurate way of doing our work...IMO. A horse runs a sharp race, and posts a speed rating of 90. He then runs a mediocre race...which registers a speed rating of 70. Now, depending on my opinion of the horse's condition, and the circumstances of the upcoming race...I may presume that the horse might follow up with a figure of either a 90 or a 70. But under no condition will I stoop to averaging the two figures...to come up with the artificial figure of 80.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I use this angle in harness racing as much as I did in flat racing.

Every trainer has their go to jockey/driver. Whenever I see a change in class to the horse coupled with the change to their 'go to' jockey/driver, I head to the window.

You don't get many of these per week; but when you do, I tend to make money.

I have found that with my personal history of this over my lifetime, that trying to score on a horse/all/all trifecta ticket nets me less money than if I just spent the same amount on the Horse/all exacta. I have bet in small pool tracks so going to the Win pool is not a good idea as any heavy bets will show up fast on the tote.

[raybo]

I'm definitely a "formulas" player, with only one "angle", that I have used for years and years, when it arises (not too often). I have 11 primary rankings methods (one of which is a "variable" method with 6 optional ratings that can be tested and played according to how they do at specific tracks). Each rankings method is a different way of looking at the same race (via formulas and composites). The race type, distance, surface, class, age, etc., has a lot to do with which of those methods I use in individual races. My track testing of all those rankings methods also has a lot to do with how I play races at that track.

But, the rankings/ratings are only part of the picture, current form analysis can have a dramatic effect on my final selection(s). But, my form analysis has no set "angles" (except the lone angle I mentioned above), rather I try to "think like a trainer" to see if prior deficiencies/needs have been addressed via workouts and/or races and layoffs/rests, and assign horses one of 2 statuses regarding today's race: a "conditioning race" assignment or an "earnings race" assignment. If my assignment for a horse is a "conditioning race", then that horse will never be among my win contenders (unless he can win the race running backwards, and then I expect its odds to be much too low for win betting). If the horse is an "earnings race" and he is among my chosen method's win contenders, he will stay there and likely be bet, in some fashion, depending on his "potential" against this field.

My lone "angle" overrides almost all the above.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"Averaging" is a terribly inaccurate way of doing our work...IMO. A horse runs a sharp race, and posts a speed rating of 90. He then runs a mediocre race...which registers a speed rating of 70. Now, depending on my opinion of the horse's condition, and the circumstances of the upcoming race...I may presume that the horse might follow up with a figure of either a 90 or a 70. But under no condition will I stoop to averaging the two figures...to come up with the artificial figure of 80.

Both Tom Ainslie and I agree with you about the dangers of averaging.