Bounce Theory: The Most Fallacious Modern Fandicapping Idea

[DeltaLover]

The favourite of the Preakness will obviously be American Pharoah and I believe that there will be a lot of handicappers who will see him with some scepticism, mainly because of the possibility of a bounce in his form. In my opinion, this whole thing about horses bouncing after a single big race, is completely bogus and I never consider it seriously...

I really think that AP is close to a cinch to win the Preakness and I can only hope the bounce theorists to spread the word as much as possible...

Here you can read more about my thoughts in the topic...

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

The favourite of the Preakness will obviously be American Pharoah and I believe that there will be a lot of handicappers who will see him with some scepticism, mainly because of the possibility of a bounce in his form. In my opinion, this whole thing about horses bouncing after a single big race, is completely bogus and I never consider it seriously...

I really think that AP is close to a cinch to win the Preakness and I can only hope the bounce theorists to spread the word as much as possible...

Here you can read more about my thoughts in the topic...

Delta, so your Preakness winner is American "Whip-struck 32 times" Pharoah?

[thaskalos]

I happen to be one of those "bounce theorists" you mention...and I can't see why you would think that AP's Derby performance qualifies as the sort of effort which usually leads to a subsequent "bounce". You must have the Derby rated as a much more impressive effort than I have.

[Ocala Mike]

What Thas said; horses "bounce" off atypical peak performances, and I don't think that AP has anything to "bounce" off. AP has the look of a "play against" in the next two to me.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I happen to be one of those "bounce theorists" you mention...and I can't see why you would think that AP's Derby performance qualifies as the sort of effort which usually leads to a subsequent "bounce". You must have the Derby rated as a much more impressive effort than I have.

If anything, the Derby performance looked like a bounce off the ultra-impressive Ark Derby win.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Delta, so your Preakness winner is American "Whip-struck 32 times" Pharoah?

How has the "struck-with-whip-count" handicapping angle served you in the past?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I happen to be one of those "bounce theorists" you mention...

Thask, I have enough support from my databases and my related research to convince me, that this Ragozin introduced theory is completely fallacious.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

and I can't see why you would think that AP's Derby performance qualifies as the sort of effort which usually leads to a subsequent "bounce". You must have the Derby rated as a much more impressive effort than I have.

Absolutely it qualifies. Years ago, I clearly remember Len Friedman in one of his KD seminars stating that if ever had a KD winner, he would certainly skip the Preakness and go directly to Belmont to avoid the bounce..

[Saratoga_Mike]

DL - you considered AP's Derby win/related figure (not sure if you use figures or not) higher than his recent trend?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Delta, so your Preakness winner is American "Whip-struck 32 times" Pharoah?

Certainly I am turned off from the whipping.. If anything, an all out victorious performance, only elevates the quality of a horse in my eyes, since he confirms that he can outperform his top rivals under a high stress situation...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Absolutely it qualifies. Years ago, I clearly remember Len Friedman in one of his KD seminars stating that if ever had a KD winner, he would certainly skip the Preakness and go directly to Belmont to avoid the bounce..

It does NOT qualify...regardless of what Len Friedman says. The Derby winners historically have done very well at the Preakness. Friedman has it backwards, IMO. If I am ever blessed with a Derby winner...I will ship to Pimlico, and then skip the Belmont.

[Ocala Mike]

Anyway, there is a whole other aspect to the "bounce" theory that predates Ragozin but does not apply in the case of AP. That is the case where a horse ran a peak race AFTER a very long layoff, and now returns on relatively short rest. The conventional wisdom is that he's now a "play against" because:

1. He will be "overbet" due to the line he shows in the "peak" race and -
2. He has not fully recovered from the wear and tear of the "peak" effort.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Anyway, there is a whole other aspect to the "bounce" theory that predates Ragozin but does not apply in the case of AP. That is the case where a horse ran a peak race AFTER a very long layoff, and now returns on relatively short rest. The conventional wisdom is that he's now a "play against" because:

1. He will be "overbet" due to the line he shows in the "peak" race and -
2. He has not fully recovered from the wear and tear of the "peak" effort.

There are several definitions of the "bounce" theory...and this year's Derby does not fit the mold of any of these definitions.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

DL - you considered AP's Derby win/related figure (not sure if you use figures or not) higher than his recent trend?

I admit that I was considering Dortmund to be a more possible KD winner than AP.

Also, even if I consider Andy Beyer to be the Patriarch of the American handicappers and his figures, the most influential handicapping concept ever, I no longer pay any attention to them (and pretty much to any other commercial figure)...

For whatever is worth it, in my proprietary figures I have AP's KD approximately five lengths behind the KD of Animal Kingdom or approximately seven lengths behind Blame, I also have the 4 furlong fraction of AP' race approximately 4 lengths faster than Animal Kingdom's and approximately 2 lengths slower than Blame's..

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It does NOT qualify...regardless of what Len Friedman says. The Derby winners historically have done very well at the Preakness. Friedman has it backwards, IMO. If I am ever blessed with a Derby winner...I will ship to Pimlico, and then skip the Belmont.

OK, so we are saying the same think Thask... From what you are saying here, I cannot see how you are a follower of the bounce theory...

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

How has the "struck-with-whip-count" handicapping angle served you in the past?

It served me better than it has Adrian Peterson..