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05-04-2015, 05:14 PM
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#1
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Bounce Theory: The Most Fallacious Modern Fandicapping Idea
The favourite of the Preakness will obviously be American Pharoah and I believe that there will be a lot of handicappers who will see him with some scepticism, mainly because of the possibility of a bounce in his form. In my opinion, this whole thing about horses bouncing after a single big race, is completely bogus and I never consider it seriously...
I really think that AP is close to a cinch to win the Preakness and I can only hope the bounce theorists to spread the word as much as possible...
Here you can read more about my thoughts in the topic...
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
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05-04-2015, 05:28 PM
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#2
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
The favourite of the Preakness will obviously be American Pharoah and I believe that there will be a lot of handicappers who will see him with some scepticism, mainly because of the possibility of a bounce in his form. In my opinion, this whole thing about horses bouncing after a single big race, is completely bogus and I never consider it seriously...
I really think that AP is close to a cinch to win the Preakness and I can only hope the bounce theorists to spread the word as much as possible...
Here you can read more about my thoughts in the topic...
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Delta, so your Preakness winner is American "Whip-struck 32 times" Pharoah?
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05-04-2015, 05:29 PM
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#3
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I happen to be one of those "bounce theorists" you mention...and I can't see why you would think that AP's Derby performance qualifies as the sort of effort which usually leads to a subsequent "bounce". You must have the Derby rated as a much more impressive effort than I have.
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-04-2015 at 05:31 PM.
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05-04-2015, 05:39 PM
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#4
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What Thas said; horses "bounce" off atypical peak performances, and I don't think that AP has anything to "bounce" off. AP has the look of a "play against" in the next two to me.
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05-04-2015, 05:40 PM
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#5
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Veteran
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I happen to be one of those "bounce theorists" you mention...and I can't see why you would think that AP's Derby performance qualifies as the sort of effort which usually leads to a subsequent "bounce". You must have the Derby rated as a much more impressive effort than I have.
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If anything, the Derby performance looked like a bounce off the ultra-impressive Ark Derby win.
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05-04-2015, 05:43 PM
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#6
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Delta, so your Preakness winner is American "Whip-struck 32 times" Pharoah?
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How has the "struck-with-whip-count" handicapping angle served you in the past?
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05-04-2015, 05:49 PM
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#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I happen to be one of those "bounce theorists" you mention...
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Thask, I have enough support from my databases and my related research to convince me, that this Ragozin introduced theory is completely fallacious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
and I can't see why you would think that AP's Derby performance qualifies as the sort of effort which usually leads to a subsequent "bounce". You must have the Derby rated as a much more impressive effort than I have.
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Absolutely it qualifies. Years ago, I clearly remember Len Friedman in one of his KD seminars stating that if ever had a KD winner, he would certainly skip the Preakness and go directly to Belmont to avoid the bounce..
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-04-2015, 05:51 PM
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#8
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DL - you considered AP's Derby win/related figure (not sure if you use figures or not) higher than his recent trend?
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05-04-2015, 05:52 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Delta, so your Preakness winner is American "Whip-struck 32 times" Pharoah?
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Certainly I am turned off from the whipping.. If anything, an all out victorious performance, only elevates the quality of a horse in my eyes, since he confirms that he can outperform his top rivals under a high stress situation...
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-04-2015, 05:53 PM
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#10
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Registered User
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Absolutely it qualifies. Years ago, I clearly remember Len Friedman in one of his KD seminars stating that if ever had a KD winner, he would certainly skip the Preakness and go directly to Belmont to avoid the bounce..
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It does NOT qualify...regardless of what Len Friedman says. The Derby winners historically have done very well at the Preakness. Friedman has it backwards, IMO. If I am ever blessed with a Derby winner...I will ship to Pimlico, and then skip the Belmont.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-04-2015 at 05:55 PM.
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05-04-2015, 06:03 PM
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#11
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Anyway, there is a whole other aspect to the "bounce" theory that predates Ragozin but does not apply in the case of AP. That is the case where a horse ran a peak race AFTER a very long layoff, and now returns on relatively short rest. The conventional wisdom is that he's now a "play against" because:
1. He will be "overbet" due to the line he shows in the "peak" race and -
2. He has not fully recovered from the wear and tear of the "peak" effort.
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05-04-2015, 06:06 PM
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#12
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Registered User
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
Anyway, there is a whole other aspect to the "bounce" theory that predates Ragozin but does not apply in the case of AP. That is the case where a horse ran a peak race AFTER a very long layoff, and now returns on relatively short rest. The conventional wisdom is that he's now a "play against" because:
1. He will be "overbet" due to the line he shows in the "peak" race and -
2. He has not fully recovered from the wear and tear of the "peak" effort.
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There are several definitions of the "bounce" theory...and this year's Derby does not fit the mold of any of these definitions.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-04-2015 at 06:08 PM.
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05-04-2015, 06:19 PM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
DL - you considered AP's Derby win/related figure (not sure if you use figures or not) higher than his recent trend?
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I admit that I was considering Dortmund to be a more possible KD winner than AP.
Also, even if I consider Andy Beyer to be the Patriarch of the American handicappers and his figures, the most influential handicapping concept ever, I no longer pay any attention to them (and pretty much to any other commercial figure)...
For whatever is worth it, in my proprietary figures I have AP's KD approximately five lengths behind the KD of Animal Kingdom or approximately seven lengths behind Blame, I also have the 4 furlong fraction of AP' race approximately 4 lengths faster than Animal Kingdom's and approximately 2 lengths slower than Blame's..
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-04-2015, 06:22 PM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
It does NOT qualify...regardless of what Len Friedman says. The Derby winners historically have done very well at the Preakness. Friedman has it backwards, IMO. If I am ever blessed with a Derby winner...I will ship to Pimlico, and then skip the Belmont.
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OK, so we are saying the same think Thask... From what you are saying here, I cannot see how you are a follower of the bounce theory...
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-04-2015, 06:23 PM
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#15
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
How has the "struck-with-whip-count" handicapping angle served you in the past?
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It served me better than it has Adrian Peterson..
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