The key to the mint in handicapping

[no breathalyzer]

Race #4 today at Sar. the horse made it past the vet somehow? As the post parade was going and then the warm ups i was thinking to my self boy the poor horse looks lame.. sure enough 5 mins later the announcement came in and horse was a late scratch. This happens more then it should.. like i said i need to see the warm up. if making a big bet, i focus on basically only nyra tacks nowadays since my local racing went to the toilet. i keep a notebook on horses appearances start to start

[CosmicWon]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Depends on the horse and how much experience he or she has, first time starters I wouldn't like to see anything less than calm and focused, if you are a grizzled veteran, I wouldn't mind it as much. Generally though I would prefer the horse calm, nothing the horse is doing with his head that you mention is a positive, it's either neutral or negative.

I agree with this. On 2yos, calm, fit, and obedient is what you want. Often you can tell who is more fit for a maiden based on how well-developed the muscle is that runs along the back of their rump. Well-defined=lots of stiff conditioning. Poor/little definition of that semitendinosus muscle=needs races and conditions. Often those will look a little chubby and soft.

I won with May Flowers on Saturday just from looking up and seeing her look confident, fit, glistening coat, and relaxed but with energy. She had her mind on business and I hadn't opened a PP but bet her at 7/2 and she won off like a good thing.

Pletcher's always look good and they (especially older ones) also tend to not so much shake their heads but stretch their necks out while in the walking ring. Palace Malice does this. Tonalist also will stretch out long too. Don't know the reason why but it wouldn't put me off a horse.

What will is sweaty, acting flighty or distracted, naughty behavior in paddock, and especially if these happen with fillies or mares. Shackleford ran fine when sweaty as sea foam but avoid on most horses.

Dapples are my favorite thing to see on a horse in the paddock pre-race. Means they are literally "blooming" from the inside out and in superior condition and often run to those looks.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome.

Let me know how that goes for you. Win % and ROI would be helpful.

[no breathalyzer]

it would be hard to prove but i bet i could out pick a whole lot of people on this board by watching warm up and loading the gate alone.. if i feel the need for action bets i never even look at pp's anymore at the lower level tracks

[hracingplyr]

I think the reason you see a horses head nodding up and down is because the pony horse next to him asked him or her if they saw last nights episode of Mr Ed.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by hracingplyr

I think the reason you see a horses head nodding up and down is because the pony horse next to him asked him or her if they saw last nights episode of Mr Ed.

Was that the show where the horse talked---until someone else came in the room...then the horse wouldn't talk anymore and made the guy look crazy? Never saw it.

Anyhoo, thanks for the feedback. Did a little research. The nodding thing is definitely not a bad sign, but swaying the head back and forth is. Funny, huh?
This sums it up without going into too much detail
http://americashorsedaily.com/a-sure.../#.Vdyp7PlVikp

[maddog42]

According to Takach and Ledbetter, walking short and airplane or donkey ears were negatives. Walking short is the back hoof not covering or not reaching the front footprint. This is often hard to see on the video or small tv. Ears pricked forward is good, alert and ready. Ears airplaning or sideways is bad.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by maddog42

According to Takach and Ledbetter, walking short and airplane or donkey ears were negatives. Walking short is the back hoof not covering or not reaching the front footprint. This is often hard to see on the video or small tv. Ears pricked forward is good, alert and ready. Ears airplaning or sideways is bad.

Walking short is far easier to detect while sitting at the track watching the post parade. Too, their hind is much easier to compare and note.

[Bennie]

I used to go to Monmouth park a couple of times a year during live racing and would always make sure I watched the horses when they walked them in the ring prior to the race and always watched for short walkers. One thing I will never forget is the time I swear a horse was wearing a "sanitary napkin" and joked to my wife and her sister about it saying not to bet this horse because she was mid cycle. The race went off and this horse took off and grabbed the lead and stayed there until they hit the far turn. She started to fade and I said she must be cramping up. Finished next to last.
I honestly don't know what "equipment" the horse was wearing but we still joke about it.

[NorCalGreg]

Wow...was looking at Mountaineer races today--had a horse picked out...remembered to actually LOOK at the horses. Saw one that I though had some positive signal(looked like he wanted to get out there and run) , then another, and the big favorite looked very good...most of the others seemed more interested in the pony horse and were sorta being led along by the pony rider. So I didn't get crazy, just an experiment really, I cancelled my win bet and boxed the 3 horses that seemed interested in running- in a $1 Trifecta for $6 total AND THEY RAN 1-2-3! This is my post on the MNR thread. Paid $48.80

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

just by how the horses look....... trifecta 2nd race

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome.

Thanks, now I can go out, watch some warmups and get rich.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by maddog42

According to Takach and Ledbetter, walking short and airplane or donkey ears were negatives. Walking short is the back hoof not covering or not reaching the front footprint. This is often hard to see on the video or small tv. Ears pricked forward is good, alert and ready. Ears airplaning or sideways is bad.

Funny, I've read from several sources that ears pricked and pointing forward is not a good sign (not interested or paying attention), ears pricked with one ear rotating back and forth is a good sign (interested and paying attention). Every horse is different, trying to look at tail swishing, sweating, dappled coat, ears pricked and forward, arched neck on the muscle, etc., won't help you a bit unless you know each horse in the race, extensively. So, if you're going to take this approach, you better be watching every horse in every race they have run in the past several months or so. Otherwise, you're just guessing, IMO of course. But, all you guys go ahead, I'll stick with my "numbers".

[ultracapper]

Bowed neck is a positive, so I've heard.

[thaskalos]

I have noticed that some horses possess the type of "professionalism" that allows them to get on with the business at hand even when they are not in the "best of moods". They may appear listless or "bored" in the post parade and the warm-ups...but they brighten up considerably when they reach the gate...and they move right in and run their race. I think it's folly to think that a horse's pre-race mood is as "predictive" as we sometimes make it. Some of these horses are battle-tested veterans...and they know that the work needs to get done even when they would rather be someplace else.

Kinda like their human counterparts.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have noticed that some horses possess the type of "professionalism" that allows them to get on with the business at hand even when they are not in the "best of moods". They may appear listless or "bored" in the post parade and the warm-ups...but they brighten up considerably when they reach the gate...and they move right in and run their race. I think it's folly to think that a horse's pre-race mood is as "predictive" as we sometimes make it. Some of these horses are battle-tested veterans...and they know that the work needs to get done even when they would rather be someplace else.

Kinda like their human counterparts.

Good points and let me clarify something, the warmups you're watching are intertwined with knowing the horse and his race day tendencies as well as his talent and gameness level and how he fits in the race on other factors, I wouldn't recommend blindly betting a great warmup on a horse who you think is too slow to win.