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Old 10-01-2018, 04:34 PM   #1
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September handle and wagering metrics


Some scary numbers in there IMO.
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Old 10-01-2018, 04:37 PM   #2
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The ones boxed in red scare me the most.

Last edited by cj; 10-01-2018 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 10-01-2018, 04:51 PM   #3
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Please elaborate...


Cj, you too......
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Old 10-01-2018, 04:52 PM   #4
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My guess is the whale teams are getting better at this, while driving more people away...they will soon be eating themselves more often than ever, and are probably trying to get as much as possible out of the pools while the going is still good, thus the increased handle numbers and high % winning favs.

Once the party is over for them, down goes racing.
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Old 10-01-2018, 04:56 PM   #5
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Please elaborate...


Cj, you too......
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My guess is the whale teams are getting better at this, while driving more people away...they will soon be eating themselves more often than ever, and are probably trying to get as much as possible out of the pools while the going is still good, thus the increased handle numbers and high % winning favs.

Once the party is over for them, down goes racing.
Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.
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Old 10-01-2018, 06:57 PM   #6
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Deep down inside, I am hoping to enjoy the carnage.

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Old 10-01-2018, 07:25 PM   #7
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Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.
Time to eliminate rebates and have one low take for everyone. Gamblers should have to play to win in order to win. That will solve a lot of problems.
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Old 10-01-2018, 07:45 PM   #8
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Deep down inside, I am hoping to enjoy the carnage.

Would Hong Kong be a viable option? On second thought, this is where they probably migrated from.
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Old 10-01-2018, 08:00 PM   #9
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Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.
I spoke about this several months ago in this thread.

Whales: A chink in the armor?

Since most winners are being bet down (because the whales are finding value)...
Most of my research this year has been aimed at figuring out which horses are likely to get bet down.
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Old 10-01-2018, 09:56 PM   #10
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I believe September was the last month where the new tax laws were compared to the old tax laws. The handle comparisons from here on out will be more relevant.
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Old 10-02-2018, 12:25 AM   #11
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I believe September was the last month where the new tax laws were compared to the old tax laws. The handle comparisons from here on out will be more relevant.
agree.

tracks made their bed with racinos and syndicates. Will be interesting to see how it works out in the long run.
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Old 10-02-2018, 07:56 AM   #12
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Yes, rising rate of favorites, nearing harness racing levels, lower average payouts and median payouts, while handle is going up. That isn't guys like us betting. While handle is up overall I doubt revenue is. The people causing the handle increases and the rising favorite hit percentage and lower payouts aren't paying near the same price we are. It is all going to blow up sooner rather than later.
While handle has been sliding downward for the past 15 years with other forms of gambling growing exponentially, there has also been a slow decline in all of the things that make horse racing a fun and rewarding form of gambling---fewer races and smaller fields in those races, more favorites winning, lower average mutual. However, I don't think there will be an "explosion" (like handle dropping 50% year to year). It's more like the air slowly leaking out of a balloon. For now, things like expanded racinos (and now sports wagering) and whale handle have patched the holes in the balloon for the racetracks. But unless someone finds a way to pump some air back into that balloon, eventually it's going to be flat.
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:21 PM   #13
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Any way to tell if the avg win payout above $20 is rising. Just seems to be logical that if the winning favs are trending down, the losing favs would also be bet down, the reciprocating result being higher avg payouts on long shot winners.

If I remember correctly a study submitted on the board a few months ago showed the winners paying $20+ dropping from 12.5% to 12%, give or take, but I don't remember whether the avg payout on those winners was part of that presentation.
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Old 10-03-2018, 02:05 PM   #14
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I believe September was the last month where the new tax laws were compared to the old tax laws. The handle comparisons from here on out will be more relevant.
Please elaborate.
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Old 10-03-2018, 02:55 PM   #15
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Please elaborate.
The withholding laws were changed at the end of September or beginning of October last year. I can't remember the exact date. Since then , handle has been up about 5% at most meets, give or take a point or two. This October will have the same withholding laws when compared to last October.
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