Pace and Speed Handicappers Egg On Their Face - Class Handicapping Always Wins

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by menifee

Before the KD, all I heard about was how weak the SA Derby was. Lowest speed figures - all the speed handicappers talked about how weak a race it was. Produced the Derby winner.

After the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was how impressive Bodemeister was. The pace figures were incredible. Based on his pace figures, he couldn't lose this race. Bodemeister controls the pace in the Preakness - not pressed and I'll Have Another runs him down.

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.

I am a pace handicapper that picked IHA in the Derby. I didn't like the 19 post so I put him second. I put Bode 3rd for similar reasons. I thought Bode would wire the field today and IHA would get second. I was wrong today but barely.
Big Deal. It seems like speed and pace got things very,very, close. I cashed a very nice exacta ticket in the Derby and didn't cash today, but only because I am not a very good bettor.

[depalma113]

It was a 2 horse race. One was going to win and the other was going to come in second. It doesn't matter how you handicapped it.

If you didn't see how obvious those two were better than the rest after the Derby, you need to be checked for a pulse.

Easiest trifecta ever.

$200 to win on I'll Have Another got you $840

$50 Trifecta 9,7/9,7/6,5 returned $1770

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by menifee

So did every handicapper - that is why the exacta paid $18.60. Most speed handicappers and pace handicappers had Bodemeister.

Are you saying Bodemeister has no class? he did not participate SA Derby by the way. Elsewhere... (probably the "Will IHA beat CC the 3rd time thread) I had revisted SA derby .. what it told me was that CC has no chance of crossing IHA's closing kick..

Bodemeister is a 9length Gr1 winner + place finisher in K.Derby after 1.09 early speed. I think that was lot of class going into Preakness..

These labels dont mean anything to me. Save your eggs for breakfast tomorrow.. Even the $1 super paid only 400 odd.

[turninforhome10]

For the pace and software guys. Try taking the Sunland out of Daddy Nose Best for analysis. Kept getting him very high on my fps analysis, Took the Sunland out and he finishes where he was supposed to.
All and All
I feel the Sunland was overvalued
The Fla horses fell apart from surface cranked way to fast for 3 yos. Ill Villano who dropped out early was rewarded by a nice stakes win at Pim today
Ark horses- Bodemeister was the class. Not really any horses left on the trail.
California as a place to get the 3yo's ready had the perfect amount of horses and a surface that was very kind to young joints.
New York never really stayed consistent. The perils of winter racing and seemed like a lot of poor trips for the contenders.
The KY horses suffer from the poly, sorry can't put it any other way.

I looked at the races in California more for the fact that all the horses prepping ran each race with a win in mind, not a good showing. All of the contenders had to map a road to Louisville based on winning the race of the day, not relying on earnings from previous races.That is my definition of class

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by menifee

Before the KD, all I heard about was how weak the SA Derby was. Lowest speed figures - all the speed handicappers talked about how weak a race it was. Produced the Derby winner.

After the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was how impressive Bodemeister was. The pace figures were incredible. Based on his pace figures, he couldn't lose this race. Bodemeister controls the pace in the Preakness - not pressed and I'll Have Another runs him down.

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.

I'm a pace guy and I didn't bet Bodemeister...how do you figure that?

[PaceAdvantage]

Another thread meant to start nothing but animosity. Why?

When the horse with the best speed figure or the horse with the best pace numbers wins, do you ever see anyone start a thread saying "Class Handicappers Egg On Their Face - Figures Always Win"

No, you don't. I don't recall EVER seeing one like that. This leads me to believe that non-pace/speed handicappers are walking around with huge chips on their shoulders and harboring extreme feelings of inadequacy. That is the only explanation I can come up with seeing these rash of like-minded threads bashing computers/speed/pace/etc.

Why would anyone start a thread like this? If you're actually using class/form exclusively and doing well with it, what would compel you to start a thread telling other people they suck?

Winners don't do such things. They really don't...it's a little sad when you think about it...time would be better spent finding a method that doesn't compel you to harbor such negative energy towards your fellow handicappers.

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by menifee

Before the KD, all I heard about was how weak the SA Derby was. Lowest speed figures - all the speed handicappers talked about how weak a race it was. Produced the Derby winner.

After the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was how impressive Bodemeister was. The pace figures were incredible. Based on his pace figures, he couldn't lose this race. Bodemeister controls the pace in the Preakness - not pressed and I'll Have Another runs him down.

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.

I believe the last post of this thread sums it up well.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by menifee

Before the KD, all I heard about was how weak the SA Derby was. Lowest speed figures - all the speed handicappers talked about how weak a race it was. Produced the Derby winner.

After the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was how impressive Bodemeister was. The pace figures were incredible. Based on his pace figures, he couldn't lose this race. Bodemeister controls the pace in the Preakness - not pressed and I'll Have Another runs him down.

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.

What is class? How do you characterize it?

Until you can codify it, it is all meaningless jibber jabber. Or is it going to be another one of the hand waving exercise like the definition of pornography, I know it when I see it?

[ten2oneormore]

I don't see how this race proves anything other than OP shouldn't post when emotionally charged.The result was one that the equivalent of a 1st grade handicapper could have nailed.Whatever approach they use.Mostly the I think the 3 logical horses are going to finish first ,second,and third theory.

[Robert Goren]

There was seemed to be a lot of post saying that if Bode was able set a reasonable pace and he didn't bounce, he was pretty close to a lock. There was even a poll on him. He got the pace he wanted and I don't anyone would say he bounced, but he didn't win. It was another case where a horse who the front runner last out was favored over a horse that beat him. These pop up quite a bit during the year and usually the front runner loses. But thankfully, they keep betting the front runner. They keep me from having to reloading my twinspires account.

[burnsy]

i look at the pace, speed and class. then the odds. bode keeps getting caught...the pace and speed people w/ numbers are going to tell you hes great. but horses like that make a habit of 2nd place....the class was i'll have another hes won more (including the derby) and raced last year. hes got black type all over the place....then the odds. for me thats the most important thing.....both horses looked about equal according to the pace scenario with bode having a slight advantage. but IHA has class and somehow hes 3-1...its a horse race, i'm taking 3-1 over 9-5 about 9 out of 10 times in a race like this. i want ROI, i'll tear them up if bode wins and smile about it. as i said about tuesday when the weather was a known factor...don't even handicap. the 3 or 4 derby horses were the only ones with a legit shot on a fast track. every ' new shooter" was a fraud in this group, this year. i did not give daddy nose best or went the day well much of shot either.....not on this track against these speed horses.

[HEY DUDE]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

What is class? How do you characterize it?

Until you can codify it, it is all meaningless jibber jabber. Or is it going to be another one of the hand waving exercise like the definition of pornography, I know it when I see it?

Class was the toughest thing to learn for me. Then one day I got to thinking while shooting free throws, while I can go 9 for 10 in the back yard, I would be lucky to get one while trying during a pistion's game in front of a large crowd. That to me is the difference between having and not having class.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm a pace guy and I liked IHA today. I guess that ends this thread.

Pace is second to Class in routes and turfs. I use pace also and had two of my apps differ on the selections. The Jimmy picked IHA. I bet Bode.

[rispa]

For argument's sake, let's say your right, and that "class handicapping" is the way to fame and fortune. How do we define "class" for the upcoming Belmont Stakes in order to select the winner?

Thanks.

[Tom]

The fundamental problem with pace and speed handicapping is that speed and pace figures will always be man-made and fallible. Class does not lie.

so you hit 100% sing class?

Please give us 3 sure thing winners today.

1.
2.
3.