Ticket Structure thoughts/help

[Keeneland]

Hi all
Long time lurker first time poster. First off thanks for all the information and entertainment that can be found on this board. I’ve enjoyed the banter and depth of the types of handicappers here.
I’m a recreational player who enjoys on-site capping in Kentucky. My favorite tracks are Keeneland, Turfway, and Kentucky Downs (big fields).
Just looking for thoughts on ticket structure around trifectas and pic 3’s. Since there are not many odds on type favorites at these tracks so: should I be going deeper? More focused on keys/singles? etc. My normal wagering pattern for tri’s are 4 horse box or ab/abcd/abcde. Pic 3’s are all over the place.
This has been something I’ve struggled with. Just looking for other views/opinions.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Keeneland

Hi all
Long time lurker first time poster. First off thanks for all the information and entertainment that can be found on this board. I’ve enjoyed the banter and depth of the types of handicappers here.
I’m a recreational player who enjoys on-site capping in Kentucky. My favorite tracks are Keeneland, Turfway, and Kentucky Downs (big fields).
Just looking for thoughts on ticket structure around trifectas and pic 3’s. Since there are not many odds on type favorites at these tracks so: should I be going deeper? More focused on keys/singles? etc. My normal wagering pattern for tri’s are 4 horse box or ab/abcd/abcde. Pic 3’s are all over the place.
This has been something I’ve struggled with. Just looking for other views/opinions.

I think the general gist with racing is there are so many opportunities, just try to center on where your opinions are. Every race is a little different. An opinion could be you really like a horse (no so much value related, but you thing he has a very good chance of winning at a square price) or it could be a value opinion, where you have 6 horses that look fairly close in ability but 2 of them are around 20-1 and the other 4 are less than 5-1. The 20-1s may not get there often, but they do get there and you want to get paid when they do.

Now with the pick 3, one of the best approaches is requiring 1 of 3 top choices to win (especially if you are dealing with wide open races).

In general, when I play multi legs, at the very least I want to have the main contenders, but typically when I handicap multi legs, I focus on anybody that has a reasonable chance of getting there. If you make your own odds line that would typically be a horse you make 15-1 or lower or maybe even 20-1 or lower-you would have to keep track of your data and see what works for you. If you don't make an odds line I would look at it as trying to use any horse who has a reasonable chance of winning. So let's say you handicap a competitive pick 3 at Turfway and you find yourself 8x8x7. In competitive racing with large fields I think using 8 horses was typically where I ended up. Now I tend to be a little more selective. If I hate a 4-1 shot, I have gotten to the point I would rather let him beat me. But back to your pick 3. You can't go 8x8x7 and expect to make money long term. On a .50 cent pick 3 that would cost you $224. But if you a horse that you identify that you can identify as a top choice in each race and they don't look to be too chalky (maybe 3-1 + on each, than you can structure your tickets as

1x8x7
7x1x7
7x7x1

Note I do not use my top choice in some races (if I put a 7 in a race where I have 8 horses I am excluding my top choice). The idea is to hit the play once and keep your ticket price down. When dealing with higher probability top choices you may elect to include them on all 3 ticket and give yourself a chance of hitting the pick 3, up to 3 times.

Well now you took your $224 play and covered it with a $28 ticket a $24.50 and a $24.50 ticket. So your $224 play is now $77. If you go this deep you typically will hit your spreads (there will be some exceptions) so you basically betting that you can pick 1 of 3 winners. Now the question is what percentage will you hit on your top choices that you expect will be 3-1 plus (you never really know what the public/caw is going to do-with the exception of looking at the daily double probables going into the race). Racing can make you look really stupid or really smart depending on the day, so never beat yourself up over getting out handicapped by the crowd or dwell on short term results. But since you are playing competitive races and typically 3-1 + winners you might have a chance of hitting 20% winners, 25 % winners if you are really good. When you format multi leg betting strategies you want to look binomial distribution charts, but in this case we know that at 20% win rate your chances of your top choice losing all 3 races is about 51% (.8*.8*.8). So you are basically 50/50 to hit one of 3 top choices and you are playing the $224 ticket for about 34% of the cost. If you are able to hit 25% winners in the 3-1+ range (which would be exceptional) you can up your chances of hitting at least one of 3 top choices up to 2/3rds). Now obviously as you deal higher probability A choices when dealing with less competitive racing your chances of hitting A's and hitting the play go higher but your chance value diminish. So this is one type of play (1 of 3 top choices) than can make 3 competitive races in a pick 3 playable if you have a horse you like in all 3 races. Since most tracks have rolling pick 3's you have the option of being very selective so use it. Make sure your top choices are horses that appear like they will at least pay a square price (obviously if you get home a 6/5 a choice it limits your potential payout quite a bit (the pick 3 typically will pay at least 50% less than had a 3-1 top choice won). I have to go cap a Zia Park carryover, but, this is just one example of a pick 3 play. I will add more stuff as time permits. I do advise you listen to the bet with the best podcasts. I listened to the first 5 or 6 of them. Listen and get a feeling for how long term successful horse players think about betting. It can only help you. (yikes he has done 19 of them. I have a lot of catching up to do). The link is here:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...t/id1678014385

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by Keeneland

Hi all
Long time lurker first time poster. First off thanks for all the information and entertainment that can be found on this board. I’ve enjoyed the banter and depth of the types of handicappers here.
I’m a recreational player who enjoys on-site capping in Kentucky. My favorite tracks are Keeneland, Turfway, and Kentucky Downs (big fields).
Just looking for thoughts on ticket structure around trifectas and pic 3’s. Since there are not many odds on type favorites at these tracks so: should I be going deeper? More focused on keys/singles? etc. My normal wagering pattern for tri’s are 4 horse box or ab/abcd/abcde. Pic 3’s are all over the place.
This has been something I’ve struggled with. Just looking for other views/opinions.

Hi,

Ideally you want your ticket structure to reflect your expectations about the end result of the race.

Very seldom is it the case that a 4-horse box truly reflects what you expect, as there are nearly always one or two that seem identifiably more probable as winners than the next ones.


Your trifecta layout of ab/abcd/abcde is bound to be more rewarding than is the "box" alternative. I certainly don't feel that the ab/abcd/abcde should be rigid, instead it should be adaptable to (the 7-horse fields of today). That is to say that, depending upon the scenario, you should be perfectly willing and comfortable adjusting to the race before you while maintaining the "Christmas tree" look of your ticket (narrow on top, and getting wider on the way down).

Sure, a 4-horse box is simple... and there is even a button on the screen to facilitate it (because sooooooooooooo many people do it)... but it isn't optimal except in the oddest of situations.


With regard to pick-3's... being adaptable to the layout of the card in front of you is most important. People probably spread too deep because of that gnawing urge to be "alive". Don't be afraid to just take your stand on a limited number of pick-3 combinations, knowing that another pick-3 begins on the next race (if done optimally, your stances on consecutive pick-3's can certainly complement one another. Building a bit of leverage never hurt anyone)

[Poindexter]

Now sometimes in competitive races you may not have a good top choice but you may have races where you like 3 horses over the rest. Now if the 3 horses lay over the field I will typically look to triple. But if you just like 3 horses best in an open race, especially when you have some good price horses in the mix of 3 horses and you have this scenario for 3 races in a row, I would go with this option. We will assume 8 horses in each of the 3 races.

3x3x8
3x5rx3
5x3x3

Cost on a 50 cent pick 3 is 36+22.50+$22.50 or $81 when a caveman 8x8x8 play would cost you $256.Once again I am playing to hit one time to bring the cost down and where I put down 5 that means the horses other than my top 3 horses. Now typically going 3 deep you are looking at somewhere between 65% and 70%. But you did mention open racing so I am going to assume you may only hit 60% or even less of the races. if you can hit the winner with your top 3 horses this method will score 64.8% of the time that the caveman ticket will at a cost of about 32% of a caveman ticket. Once again you want to be selective. 3 horses you really like or 3 horses you like with good value producing handicapping factors pointing to them or a mix of both.


With Trifecta, my favorite play is the the 3 horse key. This is when 1 horse looks clearly best and 3 horses round out your list of contender or look much better than the rest. In this scenario I will key the 1 horse on top of the 3. Top and 2 hole. Usually equal amounts but for ore if he is a really strong top choice.

Now if I like 1 horse over 4 horses, I prefer the superfecta to the trifecta. But when playing the tri I usually prefer a 1x2xr4, 1x4x2, 2x1x4 or 3 tickets. 1 is my top choice, 2 is my next 2 choices and 4 is all 4 non top choice. Now if I do not have 2nd and 3rd choices do not look better to me than the 4th and 5th choices I will not use this approach.

Now if you just like 3 horses in a race, I like the 3 horse box if they look about equal. But I will this various ways. If I like my Top well over my 2nd choice and my second choice much better than my third choice.
I might do a $10 key with the top choice on top, a $4 key with the 2nd choice on top and $1 key or maybe $2 key with the 3rd choice on top. Then I can come back with extra on the ABC for $5 more and the BAC for $2 more. I might use bigger or small ratios depending on my opinion.


One Superfecta and/or Trifecta play I like is when you like 4 horses only and you are able to rate them ABCD. Rather than box them, I like the following approach. 80 cent key with the A on top, 60 cent key B on top, 40 cent key C on top, 20 cent key D on top, and a 40 cent part wheel with the top two horses to come 2nd (so the last ticket is cd/ab/abcd/abcd). The same strategy can be applied to a key of one horse over 4 in the superfecta, but I would not bother with the 5th ticket.


an interesting longshot superfecta play that I might use with 10 cent superfecta is in a wide open race (might have 6-8 contenters) where I like 2 longshots and one looks better to me than the other. What I will do is play the better long shot to run 1st or 2nd and the weaker longshot to run 3rd or 4th. So it is 4 tickets playing the two horses to come 1st and 3rd, 1st and 4th, 2nd and 3rd and 2nd and 4th. In the middle you can either use just the other contenders or you can use the other contenders in one higher slot and all in the lower slot. Buy using the longshot in that lower slot give yourself and opportunity for a superfecta with 3 longshots in it and of course you are giving yourself a better chance to win should your top longshot run 1/2 and your weaker longshot run 3/4. If I like the longshots practically the same then I would have to double the cost of the play and use them both to run 1-3, 1-4, 2-3, 2-4. Of course you have the exacta if they run 1-2.


True story, I played the last (I assume it was the last one, it was about 3 to 6 weeks ago). Woodbine mandatory payout and of course blew the pick 6. But when looking at the late doubles I played doubles to two horses I liked in the last that were big prices. Hit the 1st leg of the double so I stood pat just hoping one of the two, to bring home the double. The horse I liked better of the two wins at 24-1 or so the other horse runs 4th at like 40-1, of course two of the contenders I had marked right on top of my past performances come 2nd and 3rd. 20 cent superfecta pays over $5000. After the race I am happy to hit the double (which was a ridiculous payoff $350 for $2 on a 4/5 shot to a 24-1 shot), but I was destroying myself for not even thinking about using the method I just wrote about. So often in the battle trenches you forget to make obvious plays then when they come in you are like htf did I miss that play. That is another huge advantage the Caw has. They have there computer programmed to make the plays without having to remember which plays to make and of course they don't have to punch in a whole bunch of tickets and inevitably get shut out on the winning one (that has happened to me so many times over the years). I think Amwager may provide you the tools to preprogram the stuff, but you have to live in the right state.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I think the general gist with racing is there are so many opportunities, just try to center on where your opinions are. Every race is a little different. An opinion could be you really like a horse (no so much value related, but you thing he has a very good chance of winning at a square price) or it could be a value opinion, where you have 6 horses that look fairly close in ability but 2 of them are around 20-1 and the other 4 are less than 5-1. The 20-1s may not get there often, but they do get there and you want to get paid when they do.

Now with the pick 3, one of the best approaches is requiring 1 of 3 top choices to win (especially if you are dealing with wide open races).

In general, when I play multi legs, at the very least I want to have the main contenders, but typically when I handicap multi legs, I focus on anybody that has a reasonable chance of getting there. If you make your own odds line that would typically be a horse you make 15-1 or lower or maybe even 20-1 or lower-you would have to keep track of your data and see what works for you. If you don't make an odds line I would look at it as trying to use any horse who has a reasonable chance of winning. So let's say you handicap a competitive pick 3 at Turfway and you find yourself 8x8x7. In competitive racing with large fields I think using 8 horses was typically where I ended up. Now I tend to be a little more selective. If I hate a 4-1 shot, I have gotten to the point I would rather let him beat me. But back to your pick 3. You can't go 8x8x7 and expect to make money long term. On a .50 cent pick 3 that would cost you $224. But if you a horse that you identify that you can identify as a top choice in each race and they don't look to be too chalky (maybe 3-1 + on each, than you can structure your tickets as

1x8x7
7x1x7
7x7x1

Note I do not use my top choice in some races (if I put a 7 in a race where I have 8 horses I am excluding my top choice). The idea is to hit the play once and keep your ticket price down. When dealing with higher probability top choices you may elect to include them on all 3 ticket and give yourself a chance of hitting the pick 3, up to 3 times.

Well now you took your $224 play and covered it with a $28 ticket a $24.50 and a $24.50 ticket. So your $224 play is now $77. If you go this deep you typically will hit your spreads (there will be some exceptions) so you basically betting that you can pick 1 of 3 winners. Now the question is what percentage will you hit on your top choices that you expect will be 3-1 plus (you never really know what the public/caw is going to do-with the exception of looking at the daily double probables going into the race). Racing can make you look really stupid or really smart depending on the day, so never beat yourself up over getting out handicapped by the crowd or dwell on short term results. But since you are playing competitive races and typically 3-1 + winners you might have a chance of hitting 20% winners, 25 % winners if you are really good. When you format multi leg betting strategies you want to look binomial distribution charts, but in this case we know that at 20% win rate your chances of your top choice losing all 3 races is about 51% (.8*.8*.8). So you are basically 50/50 to hit one of 3 top choices and you are playing the $224 ticket for about 34% of the cost. If you are able to hit 25% winners in the 3-1+ range (which would be exceptional) you can up your chances of hitting at least one of 3 top choices up to 2/3rds). Now obviously as you deal higher probability A choices when dealing with less competitive racing your chances of hitting A's and hitting the play go higher but your chance value diminish. So this is one type of play (1 of 3 top choices) than can make 3 competitive races in a pick 3 playable if you have a horse you like in all 3 races. Since most tracks have rolling pick 3's you have the option of being very selective so use it. Make sure your top choices are horses that appear like they will at least pay a square price (obviously if you get home a 6/5 a choice it limits your potential payout quite a bit (the pick 3 typically will pay at least 50% less than had a 3-1 top choice won). I have to go cap a Zia Park carryover, but, this is just one example of a pick 3 play. I will add more stuff as time permits. I do advise you listen to the bet with the best podcasts. I listened to the first 5 or 6 of them. Listen and get a feeling for how long term successful horse players think about betting. It can only help you. (yikes he has done 19 of them. I have a lot of catching up to do). The link is here:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...t/id1678014385

Good analysis. At a track like Turfway, with large fields and longshot winners, you have to be creative.

[Keeneland]

Thanks for the replies.
I definitely need to be more “creative” specifically at Turfway. I’ll try some testing tonight focusing on one or two “a” picks.
I think for tri plays I’ll focus on 1 or 2 longer odds that will get in the money and construct around them.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Keeneland

Thanks for the replies.
I definitely need to be more “creative” specifically at Turfway. I’ll try some testing tonight focusing on one or two “a” picks.
I think for tri plays I’ll focus on 1 or 2 longer odds that will get in the money and construct around them.

Want to correct a mistake I made in my last post. When keying the top 2 to run 2nd in superfecta it should have read
Abcd/ab/abcd/abcd for 40 cents. As you do some testing you will come up with some ideas that work for you. I actually am a fan of using the all button some in your trifecta/superfecta. Not to win the race but to come 2nd or 3rd. So if I am boxing 2 horse in the exacta, I will do a small tri with them running 1-3 with all in between and then an extra ticket, likely larger with the main contenders running 2nd. If I am using them to run 2-3. I will just put the contenders on top.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Jeff P]

Imo, there's some really good advice offered in this thread.

Hopefully what I'm about to post will add to that, but from a completely different perspective.

No two players are alike. None of us handicap and arrive at opinions/wagering decisions in exactly the same way.

Every single one of us has different reasons for making bets and adding horses to tickets.

I would suggest keeping records of your wagering activity.

Imo, your records should include your reason for making each bet in the first place.

Develop a set of codes for each of your reasons.

Each code has two parts:

A Short Description. This can be alpha-numeric:

A001

A Long Description. A simple phrase describing the reason itself:

Valid Excuse in Last/Worked Well Since

You could keep paper records in a notebook.

Better yet, create a spreadsheet.

The columns might look something like this:

      Date Track Race Surf  Dist FSz  Num Horse              Odds    Bet   Coll         Wager  Short  Long
---------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ---  --- ---------------- ------  ----- ------ -------------  -----  ---------------------------
12-13-2023   MVD    1    D  6.0F   6    5 R CLIFFHANGER     15.00  18.00  41.25   Tri-PtWheel   A004  ClassDrop SPLWT to MClm

Imo, a spreadsheet is better for reviewing records and retooling your game.

Especially if you can write VBA code and create your own metrics.

If you're diligent about this and willing to do the work:

Eventually you'll have recorded a few hundred tickets along with the primary reason for making each bet in the first place.

At which point you'll have the ability to analyze the data and make some relevant observations about your strengths and weaknesses as a player.

Chances are you'll realize many of your reasons for betting aren't nearly as strong as you thought they were. Or not nearly as strong as they used to be.

Maybe some of your reasons do well in turf routes, but are weak in dirt sprints, etc.

It's possible one or two of the 10-15 reasons you have don't generate a lot of plays, but the ones that do come up are strong pretty much everywhere.

From there you could start dialing back play or even stopping play altogether for some of your weaker reasons.

Or scaling up play for some of your better reasons.

Keeping records can be an effective way to improve as a player.

But it's also work.

Work that very few players are willing to do.


-jp
.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Imo, there's some really good advice offered in this thread.

Hopefully what I'm about to post will add to that, but from a completely different perspective.

No two players are alike. None of us handicap and arrive at opinions/wagering decisions in exactly the same way.

Every single one of us has different reasons for making bets and adding horses to tickets.

I would suggest keeping records of your wagering activity.

Imo, your records should include your reason for making each bet in the first place.

Develop a set of codes for each of your reasons.

Each code has two parts:

A Short Description. This can be alpha-numeric:


A Long Description. A simple phrase describing the reason itself:


You could keep paper records in a notebook.

Better yet, create a spreadsheet.

The columns might look something like this:

      Date Track Race Surf  Dist FSz  Num Horse              Odds    Bet   Coll         Wager  Short  Long
---------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ---  --- ---------------- ------  ----- ------ -------------  -----  ---------------------------
12-13-2023   MVD    1    D  6.0F   6    5 R CLIFFHANGER     15.00  18.00  41.25   Tri-PtWheel   A004  ClassDrop SPLWT to MClm

Imo, a spreadsheet is better for reviewing records and retooling your game.

Especially if you can write VBA code and create your own metrics.

If you're diligent about this and willing to do the work:

Eventually you'll have recorded a few hundred tickets along with the primary reason for making each bet in the first place.

At which point you'll have the ability to analyze the data and make some relevant observations about your strengths and weaknesses as a player.

Chances are you'll realize many of your reasons for betting aren't nearly as strong as you thought they were. Or not nearly as strong as they used to be.

Maybe some of your reasons do well in turf routes, but are weak in dirt sprints, etc.

It's possible one or two of the 10-15 reasons you have don't generate a lot of plays, but the ones that do come up are strong pretty much everywhere.

From there you could start dialing back play or even stopping play altogether for some of your weaker reasons.

Or scaling up play for some of your better reasons.

Keeping records can be an effective way to improve as a player.

But it's also work.

Work that very few players are willing to do.


-jp
.

Excellent advice. A lot of work, however, given the current state of the game.

[Keeneland]

First test night no real success, but feel quest for value was better. Focused on two horses I liked and spread in exotics. Volatility of turfway showed up quickly (see race 1).
Created an excel sheet and logged wagers. Hopefully can continue and gather more accurate data on my activities.
Again thanks for the info.
I failed in previous posts to give my goals/hopes in all this. Over the years of following/playing I’ve come to the realization that this is my hobby and I would like to participate (in some form) for the foreseeable future.
As I’ve seen others state I’m not foolish enough to believe I will be a positive player, but would like to get closer to even (improve) as I go along.

[Robert Fischer]

"My normal wagering pattern for tri’s are 4 horse box or ab/abcd/abcde"


we touched on why 'boxing' is inefficient


some of the public money = similar to your 'ab/abcd/abcde' or 2chalks (first) / 2chalks+2low-midprice(second) / +4 of Same horses and 1 long shot.


CAWs are somewhat smarter.


Going against that public 'pyramid' ticket structure in the parimutuel game... Two things jump out to me.
1) 'The Winner' is usually not a 'spread', so if a mid-priced horse wins the race, then the Trifecta is usually going to pay well.
2) 'The 3rd Place finisher' is the bottom of these 'pyramid' structures. If you can nail a single for 3rd place, you get extra value. Many players would laugh and say that it's impossible to pick a horse to run exactly 3rd. Not everyone can do it, but some players occasionally see a likely 3rd place finisher or a big price non-win-contender who fits his projection of the race and figures to be 3rd/4th or 5th in that player's opinion.

These just some gimmicks/tricks to add value. They require that you patiently wait for races which fit.

CAWs, big Syndicates, and Whales also impact these tricks.
Say you've got a 35/1 shot (on the tote for win odds) who you feel is going to be about 3rd/4th or whatever... Vs 'The General Public' there is more weight to the 'WIN odds' on the tote, you're going to get big value on such an opinion, but Vs CAW and top syndicates, their odds for 3rd-Place are different than their win. You may only get 10/1 type of treatment for using a 35/1 tote shot with a fit for underneath placings.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

After I Handicap Each Race Each Horse Is Assigned A Number
The Top Three Figures Is What I Use. Highest Number Is My
A Horse 2Nd Highest Number My B Horse, 3Rd Highest My C Horse.
I Have 3 Bets. First Bet $2.00 Win Bet on my A Horse.
Next Bet $2.00 Ex P/W A/B,C & $2.00 Ex Box B/C
3Rd Bet A $1.00 Pick 3 using my ABC System

A/ABC/ABC
ABC/A/ABC
ABC/ABC/A
BC/BC/BC
Total Cost $35.00
I start the day off placing a win bet in race 1 on my A Horse
When I Have $8.00 Of The Tracks Money I Move To My Next Bet Ex P/W & Ex Box
When I Have $35.00 Of the tracks Money I Move To My Next Bet Pick 3 Using My ABC System. Example I Place A Bet On My A Horse the first 4 races. I lose I'm down $8.00.
The 5th Race I Place a $2.00 Bet on my A Horse. The Horse Wins And Pays $10.20
Technically I'm only up 0.20 cents. But because I have $10.00 of the tracks Money I Move
To my next Bet $2.00 Ex P/W & Ex Box. I Hit the Ex It Pays $40.00. Race 6 I play a Pk3 using
My A B C System because I Have $35.00 of the tracks money
.

Jimmy

[Robert Fischer]

Superfecta A/ABCD/ABCDE/A


Midpriced on top, a closer fourth.

[davew]

when I used to bet pick3's I liked this structure

3/1/3 where my 2nd leg single was a solid horse but not big time favorite


rolling pk3's made this structure easy - I had a frustrating time going too deep to buy a winner that paid less than my ticket cost and settled on this structure


now I do not even bet because watching in paddock, warm-up and loading frequently changes my picks or turns race into a pass/watch