Turf Handicapping

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Back in the day I made a nice amount of money playing against 'cappers with this kind of thinking. And by "back in the day" I mean before published Tomlinson's and before the public caught on to late pace being critical on the turf. (I created tables using the techniques in Quinn's Figure Handicapping book.)

Now people have caught on and like other types of races it's much harder to profit from turf. Not everyone has all the answers, Mike, so maybe there's an idea from a book that someone can use to help eke out a couple of extra points in W%. And not even you are silly enough to treat all types of races the same. You're not, right?

Your right Brian ....I don't

I've created Power Numbers from HTR factors and different factors are used between claiming races and turf .....

I then look at TOP 4 and make my selections based on PACE , which is the unique part of every race that software doesn't really incorporate

In the case of maidens , I look at Trainer stats

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Here's an interesting article about turf handicapping.

https://pastthewire.com/what-makes-a-turf-horse/

Thxs BS.....not something new and has been discussed before...

its still a unknown to handicappers unless your at the track looking at his feet...lol

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Here's an interesting article about turf handicapping.

https://pastthewire.com/what-makes-a-turf-horse/

This article provides some answers to a previous question here about why turf racing is any different from dirt racing.

[andicap]

So I guess we should lobby for getting a horse's foot measurements in the PPs now.

Let's get TimeformUS on this.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by andicap

So I guess we should lobby for getting a horse's foot measurements in the PPs now.

Let's get TimeformUS on this.

[Bustin Stones]

I don't like to see people taken advantage of.
The article about horse hooves may or may not be helpful.
IF it's true that it is a major advantage, then only the history of a horse's success on that surface would tell someone about the likelihood.
And IF it's true, then that is an advantage some people have over the rest of us when there is not a significant record on that surface.
It's important to understand what you do not know that someone else may know when you are betting.

[pandy]

One of the things that turf handicappers look for is horses that have strong late pace figures. However, I've found that many longshot winners that win on turf have the best pace figures, and this includes route races, especially up to a mile and a sixteenth. And many of them pay boxcar prices. This, of course, is one of the reasons why handicapping turf is so tricky. I'll post some of these when they come up.

[pandy]

Okay, here's an example from yesterday's Belmont card. Tribhuvan won the Manhattan (he finished 2nd in it last year) wire to wire and paid $40.20. I didn't use him but on several of my early speed indicators he was the top rated horse and his recent pace figures were huge. You see this a lot, horses with the best pace figures winning turf races at big prices. So, it's not just late speed.

[dansan]

Pandy don’t you agree that you must go beyond the last couple of race to find a decent priced horse most of the time

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by dansan

Pandy don’t you agree that you must go beyond the last couple of race to find a decent priced horse most of the time

thats with all of racing....

especially if trainer is manipulating things

[pandy]

Originally Posted by dansan

Pandy don’t you agree that you must go beyond the last couple of race to find a decent priced horse most of the time

Generally speaking I guess but you can get longshot winners based on their last race many times, especially if they were used in a fast pace in last and tired, or had any other kind of bad trip (wide trip from outside post, etc.).

I use averages a lot now, so I have ratings based on each horses two best races in its last 4 starts and three best races in its last 5 starts. That way I'm getting a better overall look at a horse's talent as opposed to just concentrating on its last race.

[BettinBilly]

Great thread. Thanks gents. Turf handicapping is NOT my strongest skill, so I have made note of these recommendations.

[jim michalak]

Pandy: When you say "recent pace figures" what do you mean? Adding early pace and late pace together? Thanks!

[pandy]

I meant early pace figures.

[46zilzal]

It is common knowledge that the vast majority of turf races come down to big late moves in the last few furlongs of a race...ONLY PROBLEM is that MOST of the real contenders are moving in that same fraction on turf courses that are INSIDE of most major venues.

Look at Europen courses design late in the run: THEY WIDEN...They provide ROOM for runners that would nomrally be trying to find a way through with all the others and those that are backing up as well.

Get accurate info on the TRIP (which is IMPOSSIBLE pre-race) and you might stand a long term chance.