fun article on show betting

[Half Smoke]

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it was quite amusing to me - I think the guy is a talented writer

the key stats:

he bet only on favorites

he bet $300 on 40 races which he picked out of 130 races somehow - I don't know how he chose them

he finished with a net profit of $128 - slightly over 1%

it doesn't say how he picked those races to bet on but it doesn't seem from the article that he knows much about handicapping

I seem to remember from Tom Ainslie's classic that all favorites bet to show in the long run only lose about 6%

of course, that book is very old and it's quite possible things have changed since them -

and I remember from somewhere that very low odds faves lose less than that - but I can't place where I remember that from

if somebody has the actual stats - and at this forum I'm just about sure somebody does - I would love to see them

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https://www.espn.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=637489


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[Bustin Stones]

I've known a number of gamblers who swear by their method of betting place only. However, I've never read anything by people who have experimented with it.

[lefty359]

I've never made a dime betting place or show.
I used to know a couple of guys who bet only show and lost considerable amts of money.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I've never made a dime betting place or show.
I used to know a couple of guys who bet only show and lost considerable amts of money.

I only bet show if the horse is at least 8/1 and very seldom even then. I have hit show tickets as high as $28, so I don't just dismiss the concept outright.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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it was quite amusing to me - I think the guy is a talented writer

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https://www.espn.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=637489


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The author is the late Jay Cronley, who wrote the novel Good Vibes that became the movie Let It Ride.

[minethatbird08]

I bet show in the Derby sometimes, it’s not that bad of a bet in a large field. In my personal analysis I think place bets can work but it’s kinda higher floor lower ceiling.

[Ahorsewithnoname]

I usually bet across the board if you have one or two heavy favorites in a race. Otherwise if your looking at three to four horses with odds closer to eachother say 1st - 4th favorites Ill bet place. I only pick one of those four horses though.

[lamboguy]

on short-priced horses, the breakage is a killer. so lets say that a horse is supposed to pay $2.39, with breakage it now pays $2.20. you have now given away close to 10% of your money in that wager. when you watch Oaklawn Park, they give on track show bettors a break on their takeout. you see off track payouts there of $2.80 and they pay you $3.20 on the track. that is 50% more payoff.

[davew]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

I bet show in the Derby sometimes, it’s not that bad of a bet in a large field. In my personal analysis I think place bets can work but it’s kinda higher floor lower ceiling.

The favorite in the Derby to show has had an excellent return. Last year Medina Spirit (later disqualified) pushed Essential Quality down to 4th

I have used it as a saver bet for my mostly losing exotic bets on Derby day, figuring a $3.00+ return.

[king kong]

Breakage and takeout =KILLER

[Robert Fischer]

In general, 'Show' is a bad value.

A favorite to show is usually better passed or lean top,2nd.
A price to show is usually better keyed in a Tri.

For me, I'll consider betting show if I've got a price and opinion on a horse and I've already racked my brain trying to figure out exotics, and those exotics seem too complicated/costly.

I still may put $min Double, Win, maybe ex-bx w/1 contender in addition to the show wager. I still may bet a $min (50c)Trifecta with my Shw horse exactly 3rd (and at times 2nd as well) with a chalky contender also keyed 1st/2nd on the same ticket.
(Conversely, if the race seems 'simple', these are larger while the 'Shw' wager is smaller or non-existent).


Want at least $2.80-$3 range even if the other two finishers are to be relatively chalky (in which case one of my lean minimum exotics hopefully adds a few bucks as well).
(More than the $2.80-$3 if another price happens to upset this complicated race).

[Bustin Stones]

I don't know how you can play show pools for value when you don't know what the final tally will be before the gate opens. Unless you are bridge jumping. And good luck waiting around for that to happen.

[classhandicapper]

I used to find good value in the place pools years ago before "net pool pricing" was implemented. But the combination of a 4% lower rebate now, net pool pricing (worth about 3% to me), and a 2% increase in the track take at NYRA from 14% to 16% years back all but eliminated any chance of it be worth the trouble. I'll still occasionally look at the place pool, but it's not something I do often.