Newbie learning curve

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

I'm a new player too. The question posed here is refreshingly reasonable. Achieving a positive ROI is obviously a worthy goal. But how realistic is it? If only the top 5% of players sustain a profit, are we willing to do what it takes to be part of that 5%? If not, is it acceptable not to sustain a positive ROI? Or must the hapless losers play in shame whilst lining the pockets of the smarties?

This thread includes references to other sports, including golf. Are they not worth pursuing unless we aspire to turn pro and profit from them? I'm not a golfer, but I suspect that equipment and fees can run into the thousands per year for even a modestly avid player. To put it in extreme terms, you could wager $400 per month on random horses and reliably spend $1,200 per year on your pastime. That's a lot of action for a modest expense compared with many other pursuits that have absolutely no chance of yielding a profit.

I don't mean to make a gratuitous devil's argument for being a losing horseplayer, or make excuses for being one, and I'm certainly not recommending betting random horses as a fulfilling pastime. But I am trying to put the endeavor into perspective, especially after reading a lot of ultimately uninspiring threads about profit and playing at a professional level. I appreciate the wisdom of top-notch players and those that aspire to be among them, but sometimes the standard for success can seem a bit severe (a sentiment that's perhaps driven more by the latter group than the former). I mean, just beating the takeout on a sustainable basis is a worthy measure of success, and that milestone is still a way's off from profit.

Horse racing is an "acquired taste"...even among gamblers. The vast majority of gamblers have no interest in this game, and they ridicule those of us who do.

You make repeated references to "betting" on horses in your post...and even mention betting on random horses as a "pastime".

What you fail to realize is that, for most of us "serious" players, the betting aspect of the game was not the first attraction...the handicapping aspect of it was what initially "hooked" us. And once you become attracted to handicapping...then the gradual improvement you make along the way is more a labor of love...rather than the struggle that you may now perceive it to be.

If the handicapping part of the game does not appeal to you, and you view this game as just throwing a few bucks on some random horses...then you will not avail yourself of the opportunity to really learn this game, and you are not likely to be in it for long...

[jelly]

Originally Posted by Learned Hand35

Teddy's thread got me thinking.

For you veterans of the game, what was the learning curve for you regarding achieving positive ROI or at least negative ROI you could live with until you got back into the black in the next time frame.

My goal after my first year, a realistic one I hoped, was to cut my negative ROI in half. So far this year I have cut it down by a third. My goal was to show my first positive ROI by year four. Don't know if that is going to happen.

Thoughts, experiences, advice?

One of the biggest things you can do to help your ROI is not to bet anything with a takeout of over 15%.

[DeanT]

Aero,

You bring up a great point. The take is very high and beating it is hard. A new guy coming in can not get hooked because it is so very hard, so he looks to other games to put some time into (betting sports, or poker). We have seen that time and time again, and it is a huge reason why we are sinking at 10B in handle, while other skill games get over $400B in legal handle.

I had a friend who got out of racing after 25 years for poker. It was not a quick change, he just one day put $200 in a poker account. After six months he had $100. He played for a half a year three times a week or so, for many hours all on his original bankroll. He thought he could beat the game.

In racing, it is why I am of the opine that trying to gamble your way to learning it is best. Sign up with an ADW that can give you rebates. Dont bet what everyone else is betting. Try and grind out a few dollars while you get better, and try and last the bankroll.

With a 8% rebate at some smaller tracks you can give it a go like a poker game. For example, using something rudimentary like Bris Prime Power, not betting the #1 ranked who are ML chalk, with a solid win rebate, can get you up in the 0.90's (last year with no rebate it was 0.90 and this year about 0.89). As you get better, playing track biases or what have you, you might be even or maybe even up a bit, and you can last, like that poker playing friend of mine.

People do not have time to learn racing and handicapping and betting because it is a different world today, than it was yesterday. Some folks who gamble have found betfair and with no skill on racing barely at all, can make big money being good at what they do. We do not have that in the US, so that is a non-starter, but the principles are similar - get a good price, keep it simple and give it a shot, just like if you were trying to bet a football game, or playing a 50 cent/$1 table in online poker.

My 2 cents.

I wish racing would help you be a long term customer with more choice and better pricing, but I aint holding my breath.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What you fail to realize is that, for most of us "serious" players, the betting aspect of the game was not the first attraction...the handicapping aspect of it was what initially "hooked" us. And once you become attracted to handicapping...then the gradual improvement you make along the way is more a labor of love...rather than the struggle that you may now perceive it to be.

If the handicapping part of the game does not appeal to you, and you view this game as just throwing a few bucks on some random horses...then you will not avail yourself of the opportunity to really learn this game, and you are not likely to be in it for long...

Let me say again that I do not view the game as random wagering; I just wanted to make a point about the relative cost of a hobby. That handicapping is engaging is a primary reason I play, too. Although wagering strategy is certainly fascinating, too.

We're partly trying to make the same point, that handicapping and wagering are worthwhile and enjoyable. I'm exploring the prospect of pursuing that as part of a group including 95% of players that will most likely not profit from it. I view it as a worthy pursuit with expenses associated with it. I'm not arguing against achieving a profit, but I am exploring the merit of pursuit despite not profiting, or not insisting on terribly unlikely profits as a condition of playing.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by DeanT

The take is very high and beating it is hard. A new guy coming in can not get hooked because it is so very hard, so he looks to other games to put some time into...I wish racing would help you be a long term customer with more choice and better pricing, but I aint holding my breath.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Horse racing is an "acquired taste"...even among gamblers. The vast majority of gamblers have no interest in this game, and they ridicule those of us who do.

I know takeout has been discussed exhaustively elsewhere, but as it relates to realistic profit expectation for newcomers, it's obviously a huge factor. I guess the only thing keeping racing viable for a newcomer is the possibility, however remote, of making a profit. Just the principle must be sufficient to continue play. Otherwise, for the vast majority of players, they'd be better off financially playing casino games.

We're having a serious discussion about overcoming a takeout that implies at best a .85 baseline ROI, yet trying to achieve more than 1.00. We speculate that only 5% of players accomplish the latter. Let's be generous and say that 10% of players hit .99. Thing is, a disciplined craps player can be assured of an ROI between .99 and 1.00 over the long term (albeit absolutely less than 1.00). So 90% of horseplayers have no realistic chance of beating the game of craps in terms of ROI, which is guaranteed to produce a loss over the long term.

No wonder they think we're crazy. I don't want to let the industry off the hook and make a case for a viable enterprise based on players with insurmountable prospects for financial gain. At the same time, I want to be realistic about what can be achieved here for the vast majority of players, and suggest that it's reasonable to pursue the game with those realistic expectations. More bluntly, not achieving a profit does not mean you're a failure and should leave the game in shame.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Let me say again that I do not view the game as random wagering; I just wanted to make a point about the relative cost of a hobby. That handicapping is engaging is a primary reason I play, too. Although wagering strategy is certainly fascinating, too.

We're partly trying to make the same point, that handicapping and wagering are worthwhile and enjoyable. I'm exploring the prospect of pursuing that as part of a group including 95% of players that will most likely not profit from it. I view it as a worthy pursuit with expenses associated with it. I'm not arguing against achieving a profit, but I am exploring the merit of pursuit despite not profiting, or not insisting on terribly unlikely profits as a condition of playing.

Sorry Aerocraft...

I have gone back and read some of your prior posts, and I now know a little more about you than I did when I made my reply to you in this thread.

When I read your comment about the road to profitability "being a bit severe"...I thought that you were a totally new player, who has not yet been exposed to the enjoyable parts of this game.

If I had to give you one piece of advice now...it would be to reconsider your position about giving Mountaineer Park a sizable share of your play. It is a very hard track to get a handle on...with many occurrences that are hard to explain.

[Native Texan III]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Nick Mordin... isn't that the guy who told us at Saratoga one year that he never bets?

(Doesn't negate his good advice.)

He used to bet full time in South Africa (9% tax) and UK (0% tax).
Don't expect he would bet in USA with the take out and tax which is what he might have meant in Saratoga.
He spends most of his time writing books and weekly articles which are some of the most thought provoking in the business. Not that the normal standard is too hard to beat. He also makes speed ratings for half a dozen countries which makes his annual Breeders Cup analysis well worth reading (supplied to PA in the past).

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If I had to give you one piece of advice now...it would be to reconsider your position about giving Mountaineer Park a sizable share of your play. It is a very hard track to get a handle on...with many occurrences that are hard to explain.

Try NYRA...It is usually formful with better horses and you have multiple distances and surfaces to learn from.

[Dave Schwartz]

Maybe Sweetye John can confirm. He brought someone - I thought it was Nick - to Saratoga one year. When I asked him about his play he said, "Oh, I never bet. Everything I write about is theoretical."

But before this goes any further - until I can get confirmation from John, let's assume that I have this wrong. I do not wish to be guilty of spreading rumors about an author that might be incorrect. I really should have checked my source first.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Maybe Sweetye John can confirm.

I've always enjoyed his posts, too, but I wouldn't go that far!

[Learned Hand35]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

I can only go by what you have written so don't take this wrong way.


Stop betting and do more reading would be my advice as it seems you need to gain more knowledge.

I don't get get offended and appreciate your honesty. I have a few books and always looking for more to mine a nugget or two that will get me thinking about something new or a tweak to my system.

I believe in this game as in life in general, there is a lifelong learning process and always looking to gain more knowledge with the wisdom to put that knowledge to good use.

I do feel I am on the right track and my knowledge base continues to grow. I think my bigger problem is the discipline aspect from the other thread.

My ROI for this year so far is .77 My biggest problem still seems to be betting on marginal plays were I don't have a strong enough feeling and playing crap tracks where I have shown no ability.

For instance: My ROI on 357 bets at Belmont last year was 1.57 Some other crap tracks that I should not be touching or other tracks where I know I can't figure out was substantially in the negative. Santa Anita on 338 bets ROI of .46 Might be too small sample and could be just beginners luck, but it really seem to feel like I "got" Belmont.

Again, I do appreciate the insight.

[Learned Hand35]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Quit before you get hooked.

Too late. Fallen in love and no signs of divorce.

[Charlie D]

LH. Keep working on those other tracks (analyse the results) but resist the tempatation of investing.

[Nitro]

I’ve read through this entire thread and it looks like there’s varying opinions on what someone new to the game should consider when they’ve decided to get involved. While some have emphasized learning handicapping techniques first, others talk about getting a handle on the betting side of the game. Both of these things are important, but the newcomer has to realize they’re ONLY a means to an end. The newcomer has to decide at some point just what they want to get out of this game.

That’s why there are so many different levels of players from the casual weekend warrior to the Pro and everything in between. Most at any level want to win money and that should be the ultimate goal. The desired amount of money and consistency for winning that money should dictate how much someone needs to learn about the game.

I find that those who focus too much on the handicapping tend to become fans rather then players. Many seem to think that handicapping a 10K Claimer is the same as a Grade-1 Stakes. They’re too caught up on believing everything they read in both the handicapping books and later in the Form. On the other hand those who emphasize the betting seem to have more of the desire to just “gamble”. Either of these profiles are fine for those who are not seriously involved because they don’t offer any real expectations for long term profitability.

If you’re looking to pursue greater rewards and operate at a higher level, then think about all of the handicapping books and literature as your basic education. Then consider yourself an apprentice and learn how to apply your education by seeking out those who are already successful (your mentors). Try to absorb as much as possible about playing the game from their perspective. Then and only then can you expect any real results. Anyone who believes that a graduate of higher education can go out into the real world and perform as well as those with years of practical experience is really only kidding themselves.

Good Luck!

[Charlie D]

If you’re looking to pursue greater rewards and operate at a higher level, then think about all of the handicapping books and literature as your basic education. Then consider yourself an apprentice and learn how to apply your education by seeking out those who are already successful (your mentors). Try to absorb as much as possible about playing the game from their perspective. Then and only then can you expect any real results. Anyone who believes that a graduate of higher education can go out into the real world and perform as well as those with years of practical experience is really only kidding themselves.

to those comments Nitro.


Sort the wheat from the chaff.