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Old 09-19-2010, 06:43 PM   #1
SchagFactorToWin
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Final Odds Changes

There is much talk about the final odds changing drastically after betting closes that is caused by the delay in simulcast/ADW money. What I wanted to find out was just how much variance there is. To this end, I conducted a small study. I thought I would share the results.

I looked at 237 races from 3/26/10-9/18/10 at Yonkers. These were all picks chosen by my System and because my wagering guidelines vary with the Pick's odds (no shock there), I kept track of the last odds before betting closed (LOA-last odds available) and the final odds.

Each sample was put into one of 3 groups, based on the LOA: <=2:1, 2.01-4.5, and >4.5:1. The odds ranges were chosen because of the particular wagering guidleines of my System.

1) If a Pick was at or below 2:1 LOA, 97.9% of the time its final odds were at or below 2:1.

2) If a Pick was 2.01-4.5 LOA, 62.7% of the time its final odds stayed in that range.

3) If a Pick was above 4.5:1 LOA, 79.3% of the time its final odds stayed in that range.

I'm not sure if anything can be made of this except that low odds tend to stay low and high odds tend to stay high. Nothing new there but I like to see data that supports common conceptions.

I don't think it would matter if it were harness or flats, though. Rather, a function of pool size. I'm thinking that larger pools have less variance. Maybe others could produce some data for other tracks.
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Old 09-19-2010, 07:59 PM   #2
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Looking closely at your stats, I can say what has been said so many times for years: favorites usually tend to be overbet in the final minute before the race starts. That's why you can see that the other two groups more or less stay the same.

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Old 09-19-2010, 08:21 PM   #3
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You say that if a horse's LOA were 2:1 or under...the horse remained 2-1 or under 97.9% of the time.

That's all well and good...but it tells us nothing about what the horse's final odds were, compared to the LOA.

If the horse's LOA were 2-1...were his final odds 2-1, 3-2, 6-5... what?

These are important distinctions, IMO.

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-19-2010 at 08:35 PM.
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Old 09-19-2010, 08:26 PM   #4
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i just bet a 7 horse at flamboro for only $10 w-p. his final odds were 2-1, he left out of the gate he was 1/2

another race a horse had final odds of 1-5, the horse broke before the race and went off at 5/2. about $500 evaporated in thin air out of the win pool. those incidences seem to happen quite a bit that i see all over. earlier this year i say $20,000 come out of a show pool in monmouth. i actually called them on that, and the mutual guy said he knew about and asked the outlet where the mistake originated and said it was just a mistake. i asked him where the bet originated and he told me its none of my business. i happen to have a pretty decent idea where it came from because i had heard of those mistakes on prior occaisions, all of which the party that makes the mistakes catch them aproximately 10 seconds after the race comences! i have plenty of mistakes that i make everyday and would love to be able to rectify them.
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Old 09-19-2010, 08:31 PM   #5
horses4courses
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Past posting

Every bettor's biggest fear when it comes to odds fluctuations while a race is in progress is past posting. Totalisator systems can never be 100% safe when humans control them.

We all know this feeling.
For example, you play a horse at a track with a smallish pool, and see it enter the gate at 2-1 odds. Horse pops the gate and leads by 4.
Things are looking good in this sprint race on a speed-favoring track.
Until this happens.....
After they have gone the first quarter mile, the running order numbers appear on the screen. To your horror, your horse (now leading by 6 and coasting) has dropped from 2-1 to 6-5. There are few more frustrating situations for a bettor when cashing a winner. It's great to win, but you feel that you got screwed.

The vast majority of late odds fluctuations are legitimate.
History tells us, though, that past posting can, and does, happen.
Debates have gone on for years on how to combat the problem.
Tracks don't want to lockout races earlier - anything that might decrease handle is frowned upon.

Seems to me, though, that bettors would get used to races locking out as the first horse enters the gate. It seems the only way to stop the ADW/Satellite late-money vacuum that now exists.
While the earlier shutdown may help to some degree, the threat of past posting cannot be eliminated.

Any thoughts out there?
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Last edited by horses4courses; 09-19-2010 at 08:33 PM.
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Old 09-19-2010, 08:44 PM   #6
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Every bettor's biggest fear when it comes to odds fluctuations while a race is in progress is past posting. Totalisator systems can never be 100% safe when humans control them.

We all know this feeling.
For example, you play a horse at a track with a smallish pool, and see it enter the gate at 2-1 odds. Horse pops the gate and leads by 4.
Things are looking good in this sprint race on a speed-favoring track.
Until this happens.....
After they have gone the first quarter mile, the running order numbers appear on the screen. To your horror, your horse (now leading by 6 and coasting) has dropped from 2-1 to 6-5. There are few more frustrating situations for a bettor when cashing a winner. It's great to win, but you feel that you got screwed.

The vast majority of late odds fluctuations are legitimate.
History tells us, though, that past posting can, and does, happen.
Debates have gone on for years on how to combat the problem.
Tracks don't want to lockout races earlier - anything that might decrease handle is frowned upon.

Seems to me, though, that bettors would get used to races locking out as the first horse enters the gate. It seems the only way to stop the ADW/Satellite late-money vacuum that now exists.
While the earlier shutdown may help to some degree, the threat of past posting cannot be eliminated.

Any thoughts out there?
I agree. Unless something is done to solve this problem, the bettors will always suspect the worst.

I recently wagered on a horse at Fort Erie...which entered the starting gate at 10-1 odds.

As my horse was taking his picture at the winner's circle...I discovered that his odds now stood at 9-2.

When I complained to the fellow next to me at the OTB...he - predictably - told me to stop complaining that I was hungry...with a loaf of bread under each arm.

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-19-2010 at 08:49 PM.
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Old 09-19-2010, 08:54 PM   #7
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shut the pools down 1 minute before the race starts. if someone does pastpost the race with those controls have the guy arrested when he tries to catch his ticket, if he is able to do it from his house have him arrested as well. if the tracks did this they would get at least 50% more in handle within a year. i don't care if they need to stand the horses behind the starting gate a minute before the race starts. they must also constantly monitor the blind pools like they do in new york. the percentage that one loses due to post bell bets and cancels are alot more than any other form of takeout reduction that one could ever dream of. even the hana folks would be happy with that! and not only that if you have an increased handle you can have a decreased takeout that could work
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Old 09-20-2010, 08:33 AM   #8
SchagFactorToWin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
You say that if a horse's LOA were 2:1 or under...the horse remained 2-1 or under 97.9% of the time.

That's all well and good...but it tells us nothing about what the horse's final odds were, compared to the LOA.

If the horse's LOA were 2-1...were his final odds 2-1, 3-2, 6-5... what?

These are important distinctions, IMO.
That was not a goal of this study. I can send you the raw data in Excel format, if you'd like to tinker with it.

Are you saying you would bet at 3:2 but not 6:5? I have trouble with a methodology that would slide odds ranges up that thin.
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:44 PM   #9
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Wagers come through, nationally, 5 major betting hubs. They are encoded at the source and require going through a proprietary (NYRA's is Gold) decoder at the destination, and then, STILL have to be amalgamated into the local pool.

THAT TAKES TIME even today with high speed computers and that is what you are seeing
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:07 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
That was not a goal of this study. I can send you the raw data in Excel format, if you'd like to tinker with it.

Are you saying you would bet at 3:2 but not 6:5? I have trouble with a methodology that would slide odds ranges up that thin.
No...that was not my point.

It is obvious that it takes a lot more "late" money to move the odds of a favorite, than it would to move a higher priced horse.

I often see the odds of short-priced horses decline during the run of the race...and I was hoping that your study would focus on the extent of the decline.

If a horse starts the race at 2-1 odds, and its odds drop to 6-5 by the time the race is over...that's a drastic decline, but it would go unnoticed in your study.
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:49 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
shut the pools down 1 minute before the race starts. if someone does pastpost the race with those controls have the guy arrested when he tries to catch his ticket, if he is able to do it from his house have him arrested as well. if the tracks did this they would get at least 50% more in handle within a year. i don't care if they need to stand the horses behind the starting gate a minute before the race starts. they must also constantly monitor the blind pools like they do in new york. the percentage that one loses due to post bell bets and cancels are alot more than any other form of takeout reduction that one could ever dream of. even the hana folks would be happy with that! and not only that if you have an increased handle you can have a decreased takeout that could work
Wow.....that's a pretty bold statement. That is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines under the perception that past-posting is abundant and common place.

How did you arrive at this (huge) specific percentage? My uninformed opinion would have the percentage to be in the very low single digits AT BEST.
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Old 09-20-2010, 03:14 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Track Collector
Wow.....that's a pretty bold statement. That is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines under the perception that past-posting is abundant and common place.

How did you arrive at this (huge) specific percentage? My uninformed opinion would have the percentage to be in the very low single digits AT BEST.
In a game with thin profit margins like horse racing...it doesn't take "abundant and common place" thievery to discourage the serious bettors.

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-20-2010 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 09-20-2010, 05:01 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
Wagers come through, nationally, 5 major betting hubs. They are encoded at the source and require going through a proprietary (NYRA's is Gold) decoder at the destination, and then, STILL have to be amalgamated into the local pool.

THAT TAKES TIME even today with high speed computers and that is what you are seeing
We are all aware of this, that is not the point. It is which horses make the after the off odds plunge. A very high percentage of the time it is the runner that breaks very alertly and establishes a clear unchallenged early lead. A guy able to past post by only as little as 10 seconds after the break has a huge advantage, that is plenty of time to size up the break and enter a bet, provided the front runner is a legit contender, and not just a pop and stop longshot. Turn this around; how often do we see a sharp late odds drop on a horse that breaks slowly, gets shuffled back, and is pinned down along the rail in the early going? This happens all the time to short priced contenders, but somehow these runners almost never take the late price plunge.
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Old 09-20-2010, 05:20 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
In a game with thin profit margins like horse racing...it doesn't take "abundant and common place" thievery to discourage the serious bettors.
Yes, but do you really think the wagering pools would swell by 50% within a year if the likelyhood of past posting were essentially eliminated today?

I simply do not buy the notion that correcting this issue would grow the wagering pools by anything remotely close to 50%. Did I miss some recent report and/or study?
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Old 09-20-2010, 05:34 PM   #15
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if you like after the bell betting, you should take a look at today's 4th race at finger lakes, the 5 horse, cat's playmate leaves the gate at 4-1, unfortunately dennis carr falls off the horse, after the race you have your final odds of 12-1. of course the true odds after the poor rider falls off should 99 infinities-1, but unfortunately there are still guys like myself that are dead ducks who wind up being stuck with their bets.

i will update this board of further circumstances where there are withdrawells of money from parimutual wagering pools that seem to get swept under the rug.
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