NYRA- The Best Circuit to Play, Everyday

[johnhannibalsmith]

Even money scores again and again my alternative was just sort of out there for the exercise.

Let's make a valiant attempt at posting something that at least fires, since expecting to post an outright winner now and then is seemingly too much to ask lately.

I thought that this turf race was an interesting maiden race. There are a couple that have run a bunch and even have some good races, but just don't seem capable of running an actual winning race. Then you have the pool of lightly raced horses making just their second or third start and figure to improve, but good luck differentiating much between them. Then there is the interesting last-out-claim from Rudy Rod by Mike Maker moving to the turf. I wanted to like that move.

In the end I think it might not really be all that complicated because perhaps it is just that Ninety One Assault has located a field of maidens that he can run his customary strong race against and for once, come out a winner. Unlike some of the others that have had many chances, Ninety One Assault is running solid races that could have been wins with a little bad luck over there and some more good luck over here.

Maybe one of the second-timers or the last-out-claim improves a measure and run a career best and wins easily. But why not just go with the one hovering just below 10-1 that probably doesn't really need to improve. He probably just needs a clean trip and for nobody else in the field to do much improving.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Startwithsilver ... want to like a few that need some pace help but I'm not sure who can really lay down a fast half-mile. Being fresh off the shelf, I think this one might get into a good early spot and give her rider some options throughout. Need every bit of the 5-1 to like her enough to play.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Even money favorite wins again, but just barely this time and amazingly the race ran as I hoped with my pick making the lead, conceding, then reclaiming and being unable to hold off the winner at the wire. Maybe if my jock hadn't been worried about his stablemate being in a jam in the turn... we get beat by chalk again, but at least it was a loss according to plan.

I'm not really too sure what to make of Three Perfections being 9-2 off the 3-1 M/L when I was kinda thinking he might open closer to 2-1 and be lucky to drift back up to the morning line. I wanted to find an alternate to him on that assumption, but at 9-2, he seems like a near obvious play. Flow should suit him so even if he is a little short, hopefully he doesn't need to expend himself overcoming some awful scenario. Gotta get one of these home and snap out of my month long coma.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Strike twelve might as well swing again in the finale with Jeanne's Speight. Don't think the last race is particularly good, but at least it was intended to be a turf race just like this one.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I threw the winner out of consideration almost from the word go breaking down there with the rider and meanwhile I think my pick ran last or close to it. I wish there were twenty more races.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Bel 05/21/17 BPP#1

race 2 8f T Cl40 $59k f/m 3up speak up sailor (E/P 6) (2/1)

race 7 6f T sOC540n2x $67k f/m 3up nw3 epping forest (S 1) (2/1)

race 8 8f T Alw n1x $77k 3up nw2 nigel's destiny MTO (E/P 6) (5/2)

race 2 8f T Cl40 $59k f/m 3up speak up sailor (E/P 6) (2/1)
Finished 3rd @ 2.15 0.00 0.00 2.40 Winner BPP#3 in 94.12

BARGAINING TABLE settled unhurried just off the inside at the tail of the field, came under light coaxing three furlongs from home and angled out approaching the quarter pole put to further urging to keep her lane from COMET SIXTY TWO attempting to angle out to her inside, swung five wide for home, before shifting inwards to the three path straightened away, rallied to take narrow command a furlong from home, dug in head to head battling with SPEAK UP SAILOR to her inside to the finish under growing late threat to the outside and held on gamely to prevail. COMET SIXTY TWO saved ground near the rear, came under coaxing seven-sixteenths from home, began to angle out in tandem with BARGAINING TABLE nearing the quarter pole, had that rival hold her lane refusing to be bullied out and had to pause briefly behind TRUTH IN THE LIES before altering inside to cut the corner into upper stretch, angled out to the four path a furlong from home rallying to surge late and just missed at the finish. SPEAK UP SAILOR tracked the pace along the inside coming under coaxing five-sixteenths from home, spun just off the inside into upper stretch, rallied with good energy to be on near even terms a furlong out, dug in knocking heads to the finish but was ultimately repelled to the wire.

race 7 6f T sOC540n2x $67k f/m 3up nw3 epping forest (S 1) (2/1)
Finished 1st @ 1.10 4.20 2.90 2.40 in 67.99

EPPING FOREST pursued the front runners from the three path, waited briefly late on the turn before having the rider commit to a course of action, which was fanning outward for the drive home, shifted wider and wider down the lane until seven wide, joined up with the runner in the final stages and bested that one in the last forty yards.

race 8 8f T Alw n1x $77k 3up nw2 nigel's destiny MTO (E/P 6) (5/2)
Scratched Winner BPP#9 in 92.96

[whodoyoulike]

Bel 05/26/17 BPP#1

race 5 6f Cl40 $59k 3up los borrachos (S 0) ( )

race 7 8.5f Alw $55k 3up n1x control group (E 7) ( )

race 9 8.5f T Cl35n3L $42k 3up nw3 hard hitter MTO (E 8) ( )

[whodoyoulike]

Bel 05/25/17 BPP#1

race 5 7f T Cl40n2L $40k f/m 3up nw2 veil dance (S 0) (9/5)

race 6 6f T Cl25 $47k f/m 3up reckless humor (E/P 4) (2/1)

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Results= Farcical Feline [10-1] 1st - 20.40 10.00

Daily Plays= 6
Daily Winners= 1
Daily Net= +8.40

Total Plays/Belmont= 40
Total Winners= 5
Strike Rate= 12%
Running Total= +5.00

This was my last post on May 10th. I've not been posting in this thread because of a "problem" I needed to resolve......Problem has been "fixed".

[ReplayRandall]

Live plays for Thursday, May 25th at Belmont Park:

BEL-R4- Gare de Lyon (NY) 15-1 S Camacho, Jr. - J T Ryerson

BEL-R5- Forres Lily (FL) 6-1 C H Velasquez - G C Contessa

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Live plays for Thursday, May 25th at Belmont Park:

BEL-R4- Gare de Lyon (NY) 15-1 S Camacho, Jr. - J T Ryerson

BEL-R5- Forres Lily (FL) 6-1 C H Velasquez - G C Contessa

Results= Out

Daily Plays= 2
Daily Winners= 0
Daily Net= -4.00

Total Plays/Belmont= 42
Total Winners= 5
Strike Rate= 11%
Running Total= +1.00

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Bel 05/25/17 BPP#1

race 5 7f T Cl40n2L $40k f/m 3up nw2 veil dance (S 0) (9/5)

race 6 6f T Cl25 $47k f/m 3up reckless humor (E/P 4) (2/1)

race 5 7f T Cl40n2L $40k f/m 3up nw2 veil dance (S 0) (9/5)
Scratched Winner BPP#2 in 86.86

race 6 6f T Cl25 $47k f/m 3up reckless humor (E/P 4) (2/1)
Scratched Winner BPP#3 in 73.62

[johnhannibalsmith]

Tried to get into today's card but scratches have made it a little tough. Still want to force myself to work through some of these so even though I do think that Barbie On A Budget in the third may just be too damn good, I'm going to take a little shot that Englehart and Maragh are also going to take their best shot with Grassarla and try to just steal away from 90% of the field right away and hope they've left Barbie with too much to do.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...and I think I made Grassarla lose a lung at the three-eighths. But yet another favorite just too much anyway.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Short field of solid hard-knocking claimers for the fifth and hard to outright dismiss stalwarts like Gentrify and speedy, fresh faces like Rayswarrior. But, in going over the various scenarios, there are will-pays of around $28 for Los Barrachos and Sir Bond coupled up. The play here is the speed - not exactly a straightforward read - will either burn up or get so little pressure as to allow the rallying Barrachos and Bond to sit unnecessarily close to the pace through softish splits. I'd like to play Sir Bond at his 4-1 M/L, but that seems unlikely, I'll try this for a little different approach while I work out of a month-long slump.