multi race exotics---how to deal with close calls ?? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

big frank · 03-09-2015, 12:20 PM

I am losing my desire to play pick3s and 4s.....they have always been my favorite bet , but this weekend was tough.... i am a small player--usually spend 24-40 on pick 3s and 32-60 on pick 4s...i have hit some big ones in the past some for 5-10 thousand dollars..... i went 2for2 sat in the early pick 3 at santa anita.....early double paid 700...was alive with 3 all paying 4+thousand.....rand 2nd and 3rd..yesterday at aq in the pick 5 hit 1st 3 races beating a 1/5 shot and needed the 1horse in race 4 at 8-1 and lost by a nose.....my single in race 5 jogged...... it paid 1,000 for 50c and if the 1 had won the 4th it would have paid at least 4 thousand ..........the 1 looked home free but i lost to the best horse who was locked in until the last few strides got through and beat me last jump..i still can't get over it seeing that photo over and over in my head.........i don't think i have the stomach for these close calls anymore........i think it is back to straight win betting....The bottom line is how do you guys deal with tough beats ?? not for a few bucks but for a score......thanks i am sure you all have many stories like these

DeltaLover · 03-09-2015, 12:27 PM

You can always play doubles and parlays as well, to mitigate the chance of loosing a big ticket just by missing a single leg of a p4 or p5...

big frank · 03-09-2015, 12:30 PM

I agree Delta,, Doubles are good options....hate it that some tracks don't roll daily doubles

thaskalos · 03-09-2015, 12:55 PM

The deeper the exotic bet, the longer the losing streak...and the bigger the heartache, Frank. It's the same for everyone. How do you handle it? You counterbalance it, by thinking of those other times...when you hit for $10,000 on a $60 investment. That pays for a lot of losers...no?

There is another thing that you have to think about as you contemplate your transition back to win betting: How will you handle the losing streaks there...when you won't have the $5,000-$10,000 scores to hope for? Will you really be happier betting your money on 3-1 shots?

My final advice is...don't let the turbulent waves of fate determine the type of bettor you become; the LONG RUN tells the story of who we really are. And don't keep second-guessing yourself. I am assuming that you started off as a win-bettor...and there was a reason why you eventually became a vertical exotic player. You probably felt that the win bets weren't your "style"...and I am betting that you'll feel the same way again, when you return to win betting.

You are going to miss those big scores...especially when you are on a losing streak, and only have a win-ticket cashing to look forward to. Believe me, I've been there...

1st time lasix · 03-09-2015, 01:02 PM

[QUOTEI am losing my desire to play pick3s and 4s.....they have always been my favorite bet , but this weekend was tough...........i don't think i have the stomach for these close calls anymore........ ************************** Ahhh yes...the very same emotions I must deal with every week. I play lower takeout pk 4's, pk 5's and carryover pk 6's as my primary plays. Boy you are right.....Tough beats...bad rides,... lost photos,.... incorrect ticket structures,.... chaos outcomes,.... take downs.....and close calls seem to be the norm at times. It can cause a lot of self doubt and inner turmoil. It tests your patience. A few things I refer back to my friend. Did I rank the contenders properly? Did I compose the tickets properly....did I properly identify the race or races in the sequence where a fluke result was possible because the favorites were vulnerable. Did I spend the proper amount of time to do a comprehensive job with my handicapping. Was I too bankroll tight? Was I too bankroll loose? Should I have hedged? If you are looking for signers with a bet small...to win big philosophy one must understand the real risk you are taking. Gratification may be delayed.

big frank · 03-09-2015, 01:07 PM

good points----thanks guys

ArlJim78 · 03-09-2015, 01:15 PM

the game can be brutal on the mind that's for sure. It seems like when you need a score the most there will be one dangling in front of you only to evaporate in an instant like a mirage.
I try to tell myself there are no close ones. The ticket eithers wins or loses, doesn't matter if its a nose or 30 lengths, the payoff is the same.
Sometimes I will play and not watch the races to keep in a better state of mind and not go on tilt due to a close call, bad ride, takedown, etc.
Depending on the situation you can also consider covering a bit on the last leg, if you've got multiple shots at a grand or more especially.

DeltaLover · 03-09-2015, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

the LONG RUN tells the story of who we really are.

No doubt...

Still, we always have to make a decision when it comes to balancing our risk management and our volatility..

A bet can be correct from a theoretical perspective albeit not realistic source of profit and vice versa!

Think of an imaginary lottery bettor who for some reason enjoys the very attractive benefit of paying for his bets a very cheap price, let's say the one tenth of what everyone else but he is also limited to a maximum of one thousand combos he can bet every week...

Even though each combo played by this gambler has a positive EV and represents a potential long run overlay, still it is very possible to go through a life time without ever cashing the big hit...

On the other hand, think of a small time horse gambler, who invests something like one hundred dollars every week betting the pick six and eventually gets lucky, hitting a pretty large payout that puts him ahead for the rest of his betting life, although each individual bet he is placing has a negative expectation...

The LONG RUN result, although valid as a theoretical concepts, is still abused when it comes to horse betting, where a few (and random) large scores can determine success or failure (in the case of a bad beat causing a life changing payout)...

DeltaLover · 03-09-2015, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I try to tell myself there are no close ones. The ticket eithers wins or loses, doesn't matter if its a nose or 30 lengths, the payoff is the same.

I do not agree.. A close miss, is proving that you are probably doing something right and eventually you are going to get there.. On the other hand, usually missing by 30 lengths means that you need to get back to the whiteboard and do your homework..

Exotic1 · 03-09-2015, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by big frank

I agree Delta,, Doubles are good options....hate it that some tracks don't roll daily doubles

I can see where "pressing" the play with a double may cause even more heartache. Also, how do you press a 2 x 4 x 1 X 2 X 2 or a
3 x 3 X 3 x 1 X 2 ticket? If you press the 3rd or 4th leg single with p3's and doubles and you loose that leg then all the domino's start falling.

Like Thask says, look at your history and if you're making money on the horizontals (and verticals) with small spreads then you're playing properly and that's all we can strive for. I've jumped off many a bridge due to photos lost.

Basically, I have no answer. Sorry.

DeltaLover · 03-09-2015, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exotic1

I can see where "pressing" the play with a double may cause even more heartache. Also, how do you press a 2 x 4 x 1 X 2 X 2 or a
3 x 3 X 3 x 1 X 2 ticket? If you press the 3rd or 4th leg single with p3's and doubles and you loose that leg then all the domino's start falling.

Like Thask says, look at your history and if you're making money on the horizontals (and verticals) with small spreads then you're playing properly and that's all we can strive for. I've jumped off many a bridge due to photos lost.

Basically, I have no answer. Sorry.

All of your picks are not going to have the same weight when it comes to your handicapping... You bet more on your best picks and less on your fillers.

thaskalos · 03-09-2015, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

No doubt...

Still, we always have to make a decision when it comes to balancing our risk management and our volatility..

A bet can be correct from a theoretical perspective albeit not realistic source of profit and vice versa!

Think of an imaginary lottery bettor who for some reason enjoys the very attractive benefit of paying for his bets a very cheap price, let's say the one tenth of what everyone else but he is also limited to a maximum of one thousand combos he can bet every week...

Even though each combo played by this gambler has a positive EV and represents a potential long run overlay, still it is very possible to go through a life time without ever cashing the big hit...

On the other hand, think of a small time horse gambler, who invests something like one hundred dollars every week betting the pick six and eventually gets lucky, hitting a pretty large payout that puts him ahead for the rest of his betting life, although each individual bet he is placing has a negative expectation...

The LONG RUN result, although valid as a theoretical concepts, is still abused when it comes to horse betting, where a few (and random) large scores can determine success or failure (in the case of a bad beat causing a life changing payout)...

The significance of the term "long run" isn't fixed. It changes, in accordance to the individual player, and his particular playing characteristics. Sometimes the "long run" provides an accurate picture of who we are...and sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the player.

When I told Big Frank about the "long run"...it was to point out that he shouldn't be overly flustered by the short-term aggravations that all horseplayer have to endure. IMO, you make radical changes in your game when you are losing overall...not when you've encountered a few painful losses. Everyone endures painful losses.

DeltaLover · 03-09-2015, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The significance of the term "long run" isn't fixed. It changes, in accordance to the individual player, and his particular playing characteristics. Sometimes the "long run" provides an accurate picture of who we are...and sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the player.

When I told Big Frank about the "long run"...it was to point out that he shouldn't be overly flustered by the short-term aggravations that all horseplayer have to endure. IMO, you make radical changes in your game when you are losing overall...not when you've encountered a few painful losses. Everyone endures painful losses.

Of course you are right.. I just wanted to make my contrarian view about always using the LONG RUN as an excuse without disagreeing on what you are saying here...

Exotic1 · 03-09-2015, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

All of your picks are not going to have the same weight when it comes to your handicapping... You bet more on your best picks and less on your fillers.

I see what you're saying.

In many cases, I'll have a race where 3 horses belong in the "A" group followed by another race where 2 horses belong in the "A" group. I guess I'm not too discerning as what I consider an "A". But yes, I can see where an "A" single followed by another "A" single or followed by another 2 "A"'s can present a bet within a bet opportunity.

thaskalos · 03-09-2015, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the game can be brutal on the mind that's for sure. It seems like when you need a score the most there will be one dangling in front of you only to evaporate in an instant like a mirage.
I try to tell myself there are no close ones. The ticket eithers wins or loses, doesn't matter if its a nose or 30 lengths, the payoff is the same.
Sometimes I will play and not watch the races to keep in a better state of mind and not go on tilt due to a close call, bad ride, takedown, etc.
Depending on the situation you can also consider covering a bit on the last leg, if you've got multiple shots at a grand or more especially.

I like what you say here, Jim.

This "close one" concept is strictly a horseplayer phenomenon. You don't see the blackjack player bragging about how close he got to beating the dealer's hand...nor will the poker player take pride in coming up with the second-best hand in a big pot. It's only the horseplayer who insists on going around showing his losing tickets...because they "almost won".

Yeah...you almost won. And they almost paid you.