Short Price toss?

[Curln22]

Have a Thread covering bombers.
How about what short price horse are you gonna toss and reason why?

I’m contemplating Highly Motivated and his slow break history.
Not a recipe for success to break slow on derby day.

GL

[garywpt]

Rock Your World lots of reasons 1) jock change, 22 of last 31 derby winners kept same jock that they had on last prep. 2) Candy Ride pedigree sent 7 offspring to derby and those horses are 0-0-1. 3) Final 3/8 fraction time over 38 seconds and NO horse that has Buckpasser in the X line which RYW has has ever won the derby if it did not have a final fraction under 37.8 seconds. 4) Trainer Sadler 4 times to derby 0-0-0-0. 5) Jon Whites strike system has RYW with 2 strikes since 1973 39 of 48 derby winners had 0-1 strikes 81%

[garywpt]

And to add to the above Rock Your World has a terrible Brisnet LP number of 91 and past 1st and 2nd place finishers had a Brisnet LP number of 93 or above 80%!!

[Curln22]

Interesting
Especially since he is currently my top choice.
Thank
GL

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by garywpt

And to add to the above Rock Your World has a terrible Brisnet LP number of 91 and past 1st and 2nd place finishers had a Brisnet LP number of 93 or above 80%!!

That's a big negative for me, BUT, he's clearly one of the better early speed horses in this thing and those are on a seven year winning streak. The hype around the horse reminds me a bit of Roadster a couple years back and we saw how that turned out. The BSF figures are not much different either. I'm going to defensively include but will have more betting units on a couple others.

Not pure chalks, but 100+ point horses I'm tossing from the win pool include Hot Rod Charlie and Super Stock. I'm also inclined to toss from the exacta and tri. The Louisiana Derby looks decent on TimeformUS and Beyer but so-so on Brisnet and Equibase. The expected Derby early speed is faster than him and he doesn't have that extra gear to pass horses late. In fact, he's passed a net -1 horses between stretch call and finish (+2 and -3). Nothing wrong with Pratt but JR has a hot hand right now. Super Stock benefited from pace collapse and crawled home to the win.

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by garywpt

Rock Your World lots of reasons 1) jock change, 22 of last 31 derby winners kept same jock that they had on last prep. 2) Candy Ride pedigree sent 7 offspring to derby and those horses are 0-0-1. 3) Final 3/8 fraction time over 38 seconds and NO horse that has Buckpasser in the X line which RYW has has ever won the derby if it did not have a final fraction under 37.8 seconds. 4) Trainer Sadler 4 times to derby 0-0-0-0. 5) Jon Whites strike system has RYW with 2 strikes since 1973 39 of 48 derby winners had 0-1 strikes 81%

Gary ... 2016 Gun Runner finished 3rd place ...sire Candy Ride .... just an fyi is all bro

[garywpt]

yep thats the 0-0-1 third place

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That's a big negative for me, BUT, he's clearly one of the better early speed horses in this thing and those are on a seven year winning streak. The hype around the horse reminds me a bit of Roadster a couple years back and we saw how that turned out. The BSF figures are not much different either. I'm going to defensively include but will have more betting units on a couple others.

Not pure chalks, but 100+ point horses I'm tossing from the win pool include Hot Rod Charlie and Super Stock. I'm also inclined to toss from the exacta and tri. The Louisiana Derby looks decent on TimeformUS and Beyer but so-so on Brisnet and Equibase. The expected Derby early speed is faster than him and he doesn't have that extra gear to pass horses late. In fact, he's passed a net -1 horses between stretch call and finish (+2 and -3). Nothing wrong with Pratt but JR has a hot hand right now. Super Stock benefited from pace collapse and crawled home to the win.

i'm not as gung ho as i was at a cursory glance with hrc winning. ryw on the other hand has to be used. that was big race.

[Canhoto]

Rock your world... posts above nailed it!

[burnsy]

I not gonna totally toss the favorite. Exacta ticket and on one horizontal possible. But I’m leaning against Essential Quality. I don’t really care for Highly Motivated so that Blue Grass effort bothers me. I thought that entire field was shaky . He should of aired. Will he make 10 panels? Looking elsewhere and I like Known Agendas breeding , distance racing and the fact he rolled in the Fla Derby. Which has been a good indicator of the 3 yo crop many times recently. I’m not against Rock Your World either. Another one coming out of a usually key race and I don’t care what those stats say, he throttled that field. Of course, I always relate these things to odds. That’s how I bet. So we will see.

[Afleet]

Don't like Hot Rod Charlie

[Curln22]

I’m kinda with you on him.
Except his LP figures fit.
However if you eliminate him you eliminate MS as well as MB no?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Essential Quality

Hey, it could be just one of those days. I mean, it IS a horse race after all, right? All it takes is a nose.