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Old 04-11-2021, 11:12 AM   #31
lamboguy
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the Arkansas Derby did not look like the fastest Derby Prep race. so its going to be pretty hard to predict that any of the horses that come out of the race and go forward will win the next race unless they improve in the next 3 weeks which is entirely possible .

stay tuned
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Old 04-11-2021, 11:34 AM   #32
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Authentic looked hopeless for the Kentucky Derby last year, after he hung so badly late in the (earlier than KD last year) Haskell Stakes, life-and-death to barely beat NY Traffic after opening a 2-3 length lead.
Authentic both on BSF and Timeform was improving with each and every start last year. He also improved visually with each and every start. In his first 3-4 starts the horse would break poorly, grab the bit and runoff with the jock the first 1/4, and then duck-and-dive or drift through the stretch.

The SA Derby, where distance concerns were first raised, was his first defeat but it was a failed rating experiment with the colt breaking poorly, floating 5 wide around the first turn, and being hard held in 3rd down the backstretch. Instead of breaking the race open at the 3/8s or 1/4 pole, Honor AP was allowed to remain in contact and get the jump on Authentic.

In the Haskell, Authentic returned to his front-running ways. He broke beautifully, went straight to the front in a controlled manner and dominated the race to the 1/8 pole cutting the corner to secure 1-2 lengths on Ny Traffic who had been hounding him the whole race. Authentic never wavered late, staying on the bit with his jock urging him along, only drawing the stick when miraculously Ny Traffic "rebroke" in deep stretch. Relatively speaking, Ny Traffic's Haskell performance was more "magical" than anything Authentic ever did.

Nevertheless, on paper based on his 9f running lines (and pedigree really), Authentic was suspect at a classic distance. However, he was the only true frontrunner in the KY Derby and was allowed to amble along unhurried on the lead after breaking from the extreme outside post, completely untouched down the backstretch. Furthermore the field was horrendous, with--in retrospect--Tiz the Law on the decline (over trained, sore out of the Derby, missed the Preakness, drowned in the BC, injured in December, retired).

Authentic inexplicably was gifted a similar trip in the BC Classic. And just when he was about to look like Seattle Slew, he retired...
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Old 04-11-2021, 01:14 PM   #33
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Authentic never wavered late, staying on the bit with his jock urging him along, only drawing the stick when miraculously Ny Traffic "rebroke" in deep stretch.
Interesting perspective.


I don't agree, but I'm not going to knock a score like that. The Kentucky Derby day payouts (WPS, EX, P3) were relatively easy and extremely generous for someone with your opinion before the race.
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Old 04-11-2021, 02:20 PM   #34
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I don't agree, but I'm not going to knock a score like that. The Kentucky Derby day payouts (WPS, EX, P3) were relatively easy and extremely generous for someone with your opinion before the race.
To be clear, my opinion is all after the fact. I didn't handicap or even watch the Haskell or the Kentucky Derby last year. I was biased against Authentic from the get-go based on his late start, his ridiculous Sham running line, and more importantly his sire. Into Mischief for the most part produces talented but fragile milers.

I accepted the popular post-race assessment of the Haskell because it fit with that bias and his SA Derby loss. I figured he had no shot at Churchill until the entries showed that there wasn't much speed in the race, but I didn't look any closer than that.

I only went back over his performances in detail after Tiz the Law's owner Jack Knowlton basically intimidated that Authentic was "juiced" in the Derby (I guess I can't blame him considering Baffert's 2020 record). But I thought the horse simply got away with murder by being left alone on the lead. I didn't think he would get away with it twice (especially after his Preakness loss when having to mix it up on the front end). But somehow he did again in the BC Classic.
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Old 04-11-2021, 03:06 PM   #35
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I didn't think he would get away with it twice (especially after his Preakness loss when having to mix it up on the front end). But somehow he did again in the BC Classic.
And somehow Authentic is HOY...Imagine that. 2020 was brutal, yet horse racing never stopped.
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Old 04-11-2021, 05:58 PM   #36
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I defended Authentic on Twitter after the SA Derby. I thought his trip that day was kind of tough for a speed horse. It was the Haskell that made me throw in the towel on 10F. I guess it was a similar situation to Life is Good this year. Once a horse is gearing down and even a bit tried it may be hard to quickly get rolling again if someone is surprisingly making another run.
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Old 04-17-2021, 11:01 AM   #37
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maybe i ddin't see the same race as some of you guys, but to me CONCERT TOUR didn't look that great crossing the wire and might have a problem somewhere. for that matter, he didn't look that great before the race. but what do i know, i am not a paid paddock preview expert.
i certainly don't know why it took them that long to announce they weren't going to run in the Kentucky Derby... i knew there was no chance 3 seconds after the race.
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