Stock Market Prediction

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

ZeroHedge | Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog | Monday, Oct 10, 2022 - 04:20 AM
What Lurks Below The Surface Is A Reason For Concern:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...reason-concern




I thought the video was very much worth watching whether or not you agree with Grantham that markets for major asset classes are vastly overinflated.



-jp

.

How about we consider Jeremy Grantham's actual investments?



His biggest fund can be found under the ticker symbol GBMFX. It was originally offered at a price of $20.76 in 2003. You can buy it today for $23.41. So this fund has made a whopping 12% in 19 years.


ZERO actual results from this guy, he has gotten rich from being a money manager and collecting his fees. The company he founded gets paid over $36,000,000 a year to "manage" GBMFX alone. Yet, in the last 5 years alone his fund is down 14%, about 54% behind the S&P500.


I would totally bank on the exact opposite of whatever he is saying. Given his actual results we'd be a fool not to. I wouldn't give him $20 of my own money to invest with.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

How about we consider Jeremy Grantham's actual investments?



His biggest fund can be found under the ticker symbol GBMFX. It was originally offered at a price of $20.76 in 2003. You can buy it today for $23.41. So this fund has made a whopping 12% in 19 years.


ZERO actual results from this guy, he has gotten rich from being a money manager and collecting his fees. The company he founded gets paid over $36,000,000 a year to "manage" GBMFX alone. Yet, in the last 5 years alone his fund is down 14%, about 54% behind the S&P500.


I would totally bank on the exact opposite of whatever he is saying. Given his actual results we'd be a fool not to. I wouldn't give him $20 of my own money to invest with.

was there any dividend payoffs with this fun in those 19 years?

bad results from funds are not uncommon,.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

was there any dividend payoffs with this fun in those 19 years?

bad results from funds are not uncommon,.

Less than 3% dividend pretty much throughout.



I agree regarding funds, My biggest equity holdings are S&P500, Dow 30, and the SCHD fund. Especially in times of uncertainty buying something that you feel good about recovering is a priority. Very few funds really give me that warm and fuzzy feeling.


I don't know how so many "fund managers" or "financial advisors" stay employed. At least 75% of the funds these guys run cannot outperfrom the S&P500 so why bother.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Less than 3% dividend pretty much throughout.



I agree regarding funds, My biggest equity holdings are S&P500, Dow 30, and the SCHD fund. Especially in times of uncertainty buying something that you feel good about recovering is a priority. Very few funds really give me that warm and fuzzy feeling.


I don't know how so many "fund managers" or "financial advisors" stay employed. At least 75% of the funds these guys run cannot outperfrom the S&P500 so why bother.

i know the return doesn't sound great but when you account for the very high trading and management fees, this fund did well compared to most others. long term funds and ETF's are around to fleece you out of your money.

i have been trading on the Centerpoint platform. they are great. if you need to borrow shares to short they get them for you, you never get front run and you see all the order flows.

if i know that i am going to trade a stock, long or short, i always borrow shares before i make the trade and they charge reasonable fees for this. just to make sure i can short the equity if i need to.

[BroadwayJoe]

We are up this morning .....

Each time it hits this spot people think its over....or its just a buying opportunity to just sell in a few days

O how I wish it was true....

These lines I drew a long time ago

The next 2 weeks of earnings will be the breaking point...I'm guessing downward

[Jeff P]

Zerohedge article last night saying the S&P 500 could see anything between a 5% drop and a 3% jump depending on Thursday's CPI print.

The article sits behind a paywall. But if you CTRL-A to highlight all of the visible text after the page loads and then CTRL-V to paste the highlighted text into a Word Doc: You should be able to see the partial quote below.

Zerohedge | Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - 07:40 PM
JPMorgan, Goldman Predict Huge Market Surge, Plunge Depending On CPI Print:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jp...ding-cpi-print

With stocks collapsing after last week's jobs report, which while mostly inline surprised with the unexpectedly large drop in the unemployment rate (a number which is laughably fabricated and straight from the US propaganda bureau as it comes as ever more companies announce mass layoffs), the stakes ahead of Thursday's CPI print are even higher according to the two most important US trading desks, that of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

Starting with the former, JPM market intelligence trader Andrew Tyler writes that while a 75bps rate hike in three weeks "feels like a foregone conclusion but the following 2 meetings lack a consensus" and said consensus will be formed depending on what the CPI print is. As a reference, JPM chief economist Mike Feroli expects that CPI for Headline YoY will come at 8.1% (0.3% MoM) and for Core YoY is 6.5% (0.45% MoM), both in line with expectations on an annual basis if slightly hotter than consensus sequentially (more below). How does this translate into market moves? Well, according to Tyler the answer is as follows:

• CPI prints above 8.3% -> this will be another -5% day. The Sep 13 CPI print, when the whisper number was a miss but got a beat instead (8.3% vs. 8.1% consensus; 8.5% prior) triggered a 4.3% decline in the SPX as Credit outperformed.

• CPI prints 8.1% - 8.3% -> also a negative outcome, with SPX -1.5% - 2%, potentially characterized by a buyers strike. The bigger concern here, according to JPM, is the bond market repricing to increase the probability of a 75bps hike in December.

• CPI prints 7.9% - 8.0% -> this is likely enough to stage a rally, perhaps +75bps – 100bps. Currently, Bloomberg's mash up of economic forecasts show 2022 Q4 averaging 7.2%, meaning that if we see an 8.0% print this week, then the next two prints need to average 6.9%.

• CPI prints below 7.9% -> should this come to fruition, JPM thinks a +2-3% day is most likely, though if we see CPI gap down more than 60bps (largest is the move from 9.1% to 8.5%) the move could be larger; then calls for a Fed pause/pivot may become deafening.

Wish I had a reliable way to predict whether tomorrow's CPI print comes in hot or cold.


-jp

.

[Rex Phinney]

The wholesale price index came in hotter than expected today. Inflation is still running the show.


I predict that earnings will actually be decent, but there won;t be much runup in stocks to follow as inflation and the Fed is just overshadowing at this point.

[Jeff P]

Since I view the likelihood of tomorrow's CPI print coming in hotter than expected as a 50%/50% proposition:

I decided to buy a couple of SPY OCT172022 Puts... a 350 for 2.76 and a 345 for 1.56.

If I'm right and CPI print comes in hotter than expected:

I think SPY (trading at about 358 right now as I type this) falls about 4% and should be trading at about 343 sometime between tomorrow (Thurs) and expiration date (Mon.)

If that's the case I should be able to realize a nice gain.

The 350 put would be solidly in the money and could be worth $700 to $800.

The 345 put would be a point or two in the money and could be worth maybe $400 to $500.

Of course these numbers depend on which day my SPY target price (343) is reached (if at all.)

If it happens on Thurs both puts will be worth more. If it happens on Fri or Mon both will be worth considerably less.

But if I'm wrong and CPI print comes in cooler than expected:

Both puts are going to blow up.

If that's the case, I'll have the privilege of selling them to someone else for pennies on the dollar or seeing them expire worthless.



-jp

.

[Richie]

just revisiting some notes i wrote down

on 4/4/2022 goldman predicted S&P at 4700 year end
on 6/15/2022 fed said inflation would be at 5.2% at year end

on 6/16 fed expected yearly inflation (not cpi) to drop from 6.3% to 5.2

for whatever that is worth

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Richie

just revisiting some notes i wrote down

on 4/4/2022 goldman predicted S&P at 4700 year end
on 6/15/2022 fed said inflation would be at 5.2% at year end

on 6/16 fed expected yearly inflation (not cpi) to drop from 6.3% to 5.2

for whatever that is worth

this Powell guy was planted from the planet jupiter just to make sure he takes down this country.

[Jeff P]

FWIW, after it became painfully obvious, Goldman did revise their S&P 500 target downward on Sept 22.

Goldman Slashes S&P 500 Target Citing Higher Fed Rates Path:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...thrq#xj4y7vzkg

• S&P 500 Index year-end target cut to 3,600, implying 4.2% drop
• Risks skewed to downside even after forecast revision: Kostin

-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Since I view the likelihood of tomorrow's CPI print coming in hotter than expected as a 50%/50% proposition:

I decided to buy a couple of SPY OCT172022 Puts... a 350 for 2.76 and a 345 for 1.56.

If I'm right and CPI print comes in hotter than expected:

I think SPY (trading at about 358 right now as I type this) falls about 4% and should be trading at about 343 sometime between tomorrow (Thurs) and expiration date (Mon.)

If that's the case I should be able to realize a nice gain.

The 350 put would be solidly in the money and could be worth $700 to $800.

The 345 put would be a point or two in the money and could be worth maybe $400 to $500.

Of course these numbers depend on which day my SPY target price (343) is reached (if at all.)

If it happens on Thurs both puts will be worth more. If it happens on Fri or Mon both will be worth considerably less.

But if I'm wrong and CPI print comes in cooler than expected:

Both puts are going to blow up.

If that's the case, I'll have the privilege of selling them to someone else for pennies on the dollar or seeing them expire worthless.



-jp

.

It's around 349 right now in pre-market? Good call so far.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Richie

just revisiting some notes i wrote down

on 4/4/2022 goldman predicted S&P at 4700 year end
on 6/15/2022 fed said inflation would be at 5.2% at year end

on 6/16 fed expected yearly inflation (not cpi) to drop from 6.3% to 5.2

for whatever that is worth

Now that’s a nice reality check. Good reason to totally ignore what the “experts” say

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's around 349 right now in pre-market? Good call so far.

The reported headline CPI number was 8.2%.

Not quite hot enough to spark the 4% drop I based the trade on.

But more than enough to cause a 1.5% to 2% drop.

The options I bought for this short term trade expire in 3 trading days (Monday.)

Right after market open I realized the drop was only going to be 1.5% to 2%, and decided to sell rather than face Theta Decay by the hour.

I got 5.10 for the 3.50 and 2.98 for the 345.

Not as much as I'd hoped for but still a nice return on a position held less than 24 hrs:

(5.10 + 2.98)/(2.76 + 1.56) = 1.87

or

87% gain



-jp

.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

The reported headline CPI number was 8.2%.

Not quite hot enough to spark the 4% drop I based the trade on.

But more than enough to cause a 1.5% to 2% drop.

The options I bought for this short term trade expire in 3 trading days (Monday.)

Right after market open I realized the drop was only going to be 1.5% to 2%, and decided to sell rather than face Theta Decay by the hour.

I got 5.10 for the 3.50 and 2.98 for the 345.

Not as much as I'd hoped for but still a nice return on a position held less than 24 hrs:

(5.10 + 2.98)/(2.76 + 1.56) = 1.87

or

87% gain



-jp

.

way to go!

buy gold somewhere now