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05-02-2008, 01:58 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 335
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Who Are Your Top Derby Choices?
For the Derby, we like Big Brown, who is also the choice of many. There are people who are doubting the horse saying he's not experienced enough, didn't face any real competition, can't go wire to wire in the Derby, etc. However, I think we still haven't really seen what the horse can do. In his 3 easy wins, the horse was never really used. If he had someone pressing him, he could have ran even faster. Also, we like the fact that his monster prep race was on a natural dirt surface. If it does indeed rain and give us a wet track, I think it would naturally help this speed horse. The 20 post will be tough though and will probably force him to the lead early and would eliminate any chance of trying to rate the horse a bit (as in his 2nd race). It is questionable why they didn't take one of the available inside posts when there would be no speed on his outside. Enough about the chalk. We also like some longer shots. According to our analysis, Denis of Cork looks very strong. He may have been steadied in the Illinois Derby; it seemed as though he just didn't fire. This may seem like a surprise pick to some but if he puts out a performance like the Southwest, and can get the longer distance, he will be in the mix coming for home.
Also, don't rule out the filly. Eight Belles hasn't raced against the boys, but has a lot of experience and has shown some monster performances. Her last race in the Fantasy was much more impressive than most of the colts in their last preps. Also, she has some great workouts.
Gayego should also be considered, especially if the track ends up wet. We also think Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air (2 for 2 on wet track), and Colonel John should be used in Tri's and Super's.
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05-02-2008, 08:00 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
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Too early to pick
It's the morning before Derby day and it's still too early to finalize a selection. For some of the entrants, surface condition is a huge issue. I need to see if they get the rain they expect and if the track will be drying out by post time. Given the right surface I expect a strong showing by Court Vision.
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05-02-2008, 08:18 AM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Big Brown
Eight Belles
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-02-2008, 08:47 AM
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#4
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Frontrunner
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Pasadena, CA
Posts: 2,797
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Colonel John, followed by Eight Belles, Z Fortune, and/or Monba underneath.
__________________
Aspiring turf writer and handicapper. Follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne!
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05-02-2008, 10:38 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Any projections
On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.
Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?
LemonSoupKid
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05-02-2008, 11:03 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,988
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To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.
You just don't do it!
Pyro
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05-02-2008, 11:08 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shanta
To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.
You just don't do it!
Pyro
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Maybe you just don't do it Pyro won't hit the board will prove to be the pig.
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05-02-2008, 11:47 AM
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#8
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,295
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shanta
To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.
You just don't do it!
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Regression in the last two says otherwise.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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05-02-2008, 12:15 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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My longshot pick
Win...Visionaire
Plc....Colonel John (box the top two)
shw...Pyro-Eight Belles-Big Brown- Gayego-Z Fortune (trifecta-Super)
$2 tri part wheel
8-10
8-10
5-6-9-20
5-6-9-20 (trifecta-Super)
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05-02-2008, 12:32 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 737
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Derby
Hi guys my top pick is colonial john won in same spd as big brown.My second would be#2 he could he can run as fast as #20 pace wise.And then thrid choice would be big brown he show's everything.But i think could very well bounce.Which think he will.Exacta box #2 #10 #20
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05-02-2008, 12:41 PM
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#11
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Lacrimae rerum
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: at my house
Posts: 7,308
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key part wheel in all slots, several times
pyro -- garbage truck brigade
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05-02-2008, 12:59 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 335
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.
Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?
LemonSoupKid
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LemonSoupKid, we are also surprised that there has been not much talk regarding a possible wet track.
It seems like there is 50% chance of precipitation all day today, and 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms starting at about 11pm and through the night. For tomorrow, it seems like 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms in the morning up to 11am and then 70% chance from 11am on.
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05-02-2008, 01:27 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New York
Posts: 285
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Colonel John is the only horse I like. Last year I picked Hard Spun.
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05-02-2008, 01:35 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,588
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1. ZFortune
2. Big Brown
3. Pyro
4. Visionaire
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05-02-2008, 01:58 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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CJ
The wet track hurts C. John, methinks
I'll post my picks tonight.
Lemon
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