Professional handicapper quiz

[anotherdave]

In my neverending quest for the truth:

So you have $20000 expendible cash and decide to use the whole shot to take a stab as a professional handicapper. You also have living expenses set aside for 6 months to give you a decent chance of surviving. You are very knowledgable and have made a good profit (say a grand total of $20000 over the last 3 years) part-time betting to win only. Here are my questions:

1. How many tracks would you play? (and which ones?)


2. How much would you bet on each play? (of course this could cause problems at smaller tracks, but hypothetically)


3. At what amounts would you start decreasing or increasing your bets (if at all)?


4. How would you profit take?


5. How many months a year would you take off from the races?


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[sq764]

I have a question... If you are married, is there such a thing as $20,000 EXPENDIBLE cash?

[Zaf]

Interesting Dave Let me think about this for a while.

I try to respond before the thread is ruined by a database/R.O.I./I.V./speed figure argument

ZAFONIC

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by zafonic
Interesting Dave Let me think about this for a while.

I try to respond before the thread is ruined by a database/R.O.I./I.V./speed figure argument

ZAFONIC

Well I thought of that, so I did what I've never done before. I used the ignore button.

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[JustRalph]

when I decided to approach handicapping like a job .......it wasn't any fun anymore. FYI Dave............

That along with other reasons of time and attitude have me playing with much less frequency now days.

The good news is that there will always be a meet going somewhere. When things change......... I am sure I will come back to it.

[mhrussell]

First off, I would recommend at least 1 year of expenses instead of just 6 months.

1) I would concentrate on Arlington Park, Churchill, Keeneland, Gulfstream/Calder, Belmont and Saratoga and the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita

2)Flat bet $150 (win bets). Consider a portfolio approach where some of your bankroll is allocated to Exactas/Trifectas (if you are succesful with them). Adjust your win bet size downward accordingly.

3) Don't change bet size until you double your initial bankroll. Then reasses your expenses and form a new bankroll (from my old blackjack team days...) and unit size.

4) Pay yourself monthly. Steve Fierro has a nice approach that he describes in his book "Four Quarters of Horse Investing". But don't forget to save some profit to build up your bankroll.

5) Take at least 6-10 weeks off a year. You need time away from the lost photos, inquiries and the 10,000 other "tough beats" that will drive you insane if you let it.

Personally, I would need a lot bigger bankroll behind me to try this. Thus, I will keep my day job as a thermal engineer and continue to play part time. But there are days when I want to chuck the whole g-d thing and go for it too.

Anyway, my 2 cents worth...

1) I'd play NYRA, SoCal, Chicago, and Kentucky (except Turfway), plus Oaklawn and Monmouth.

2) I have no idea how much I'd bet per play. No more than 2% of the bankroll, 1% on most plays.

3) The bet size wouldn't vary.

4) I'd keep the bankroll at what it started at and remove the profits periodically.

5) I'd probably take December off until after Christmas when Santa Anita begins its winter meet. I wouldn't play Aqueduct until February.

[Dick Schmidt]

1. How many tracks would you play? (and which ones?)

Lots. Certainly every major circuit, and during the summer at least 10-12 tracks per day. Tom Brohamer told me once that hobbyists hunt with rifles, professionals hunt with shotguns. It is more fun to carefully stalk the perfect race, wait for the perfect bet and hit a precise target, but pointing a shotgun at a flock of (sitting?) ducks and letting go with both barrels will feed your family. When they are on offer, I regularly play 75-100 races a day, and I try to never spend more than three minutes analyzing any one race. Don't forget to set aside time to keep records at the end of the day. Figure on a 12-14 hour day.


2. How much would you bet on each play? (of course this could cause problems at smaller tracks, but hypothetically)

Sure you can be a little more at the big tracks and are limited at the smaller ones, but if you can't put $100 down on a horse, why bother? Remember, you're trying to make a living here.


3. At what amounts would you start decreasing or increasing your bets (if at all)?

I never decrease bets, and I increase my bets based on a percentage of bankroll. 2% is what I usually use. I normally increase my bets only once a week or so, and never in the middle of a day, or card. I also use multiple bankrolls, so the worst that can happen is I lose one and have to take another out of my backup stash.

4. How would you profit take?

Have a goal in mind when you start. I usually try to increase my bank by 50%, then take half the profits and either start another bankroll (exotics, say) or pay bills. Thus a $100 bank is taken to $150, $25 extracted, and $125 is taken to $190 and so on. I never use a time frame, if it takes a day to do it, great, if it takes a month, then it does. If you want a regular paycheck, go get a regular job.

5. How many months a year would you take off from the races?

None. Instead I take off days during the week. Many times I will take off Sundays to do family things, and one or two days during the week to run errands and relax while the house is empty. I play every month because I have bills that come due every month, so I need the money. It's a grind, but so was working for a life insurance company 50 weeks a year, and this pays better and I don't wear a tie.


As an aside, $20,000 is more than enough to start with. Keep at least half in reserve. I started with $200. I have bet $7-8,000 a day out of a $10,000 bank frequently, and occasionally bet over $10,000 a day from a $10,000 bank. It is my opinion that you don't want to invest too much, either financially or emotionally, in any one race. Play them like you are working on an assembly line doing the same thing over and over all day. You may have some thrills during the day, but if any part of the process is "fun" then eliminate that part. This is a job of work, and part of the process of becoming a professional is to turn handicapping into a job.

Good luck,

Dick

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by JustRalph
when I decided to approach handicapping like a job .......it wasn't any fun anymore. FYI Dave............
That along with other reasons of time and attitude have me playing with much less frequency now days.
The good news is that there will always be a meet going somewhere. When things change......... I am sure I will come back to it.

Hey Dave

I realize I didn't answer your questions....... you weren't looking for the crap I posted above.....how about this.

1. Since I have been playing a couple of years, I know by now
which ones I am good at......stick with those.....
2. Come up with a formula based on the size of the bankroll.
I have read a bunch of different theories on this, depends
on the size of the bankroll.
3. When to adjust bets ? evaluate on the way......?
4. Pay myself monthly
5. Winter racing depends on what tracks I am playing. Winter
is my favorite at some tracks, but Winter is a great time to
take off if you ask me. Especially if you live in a cold climate
and want to take a trip to a warm spot. Or vice versa,
a month off in the winter?

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
1. You may have some thrills during the day, but if any part of the process is "fun" then eliminate that part. This is a job of work, and part of the process of becoming a professional is to turn handicapping into a job.

Good luck,

Dick

===========================
Mr. Schmidt,

You are correct... however, once folks find out that professional wagering is a JOB they will be turned off no matter how much money they make. At first they think it's glamorous then they find out it's a lot harder than it looks... mental pressure, loosing streaks, et cetera. My Grampa has been doing this longer than most of the folks that post here have been on this planet. IT'S A JOB! It's not glamourous and it's certainly not 9 to 5 either... ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

-L.C.

[kenwoodall]

Dick is correct, but I would not play Southern Ca, FL, or minor tracks.

[hurrikane]

Dick has about summed it up for you there Dave.

I would say for tracks..where evey you can find a play.

you better learn to be patient. That is maybe the best tool a handicapper has..patience and disipline

Try if you can to remove the emotion from the game. A lot of ego and emotion can come into play..the more you can eliminate it the better. After all..when is that last time you were jumping up and down and yelling for you mutual fund to go up?
that is really whay is going on here. you are investing in parimutual funds.

I dont' even watch the races I bet on.

[ranchwest]

The tracks you play depends on the basis of your play. From what I've seen there are two successful approaches.

1) Play a circuit and know that circuit. A lot of these people are at the track live as much as they can be.

2) Shove money through the windows, playing as many tracks as possible. Of course, I would think you have to be pretty good with using a computer as a tool for this approach to work.

I'm not familiar with people who cherry pick a half dozen tracks and play those professionally, though there may be some doing it.

[Valuist]

1. I would play the tracks I play now. I play GP and Aqu in the winter, and then Hawthorne as it starts in March. GP feeds into Aqu, Kee and Haw. I drop GP when Keeneland starts and then play Kentucky (not Ellis), Chicago and New York racing the rest of the way. If you play CD or Kee, you might as well play Chicago and NY because they ship back and forth so often. I'm considering dumping the inner dirt at Aqu and playing FG instead.

2. Bet size would vary considerably. I would not lock myself into win bets only. The biggest overlays come in the big exotics. As for a limit, it would depend on what my "comfort zone" was.

3. As for question 3, when I feel a slump coming, I limit myself to no more than 3 bets in a day. I usually bet, then leave. This is the best way to break a slump. There is no chasing. I never feel compelled to chase a previous days' losses, but there have been times when I've chased that day's losses.

4. Would depend on how much I made and how my non-racing expenses were.

5. I like to take 8 weeks off a year. 5 weeks in summer. I love Saratoga's racing but I find the heat of the summer to be a turning point in many horses' form. Del Mar is a disaster which I refuse to bet. I'll take the first 3 weeks off in January and let all the GP layoff horses get a race or two into themselves. By the 3rd week in Jan, I'm itching to get back to the track.

[karlskorner]

I have always felt that the word "professional" is out of context when used with handicapper. In my mind a professional is someone who offers their "services" to the public such as a doctor, lawyer, accountant etc. for a "fee". The few handicappers who sell a tout sheet, information or post their opinions in newsapapers etc. can be called professional, I guess.

Announce to someone that your are a handicapper and you are shunned by the public, but declare I am a "professional Handicapper" and it has a nice ring to it.