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Old 03-23-2019, 02:31 AM   #16
taxicab
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I like the Spinoff.
His splits in his last were nothing to sneeze at.
Make him the selection.
Thinking the is a nice colt......expect him to keep improving.
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Old 03-23-2019, 04:32 AM   #17
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ex key box,

Considering the love for this horse in this thread and Ortiz getting up, I predict the odds on will be 7-1.
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Old 03-23-2019, 11:34 AM   #18
boys at tosconova
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kind of souring on the 11 for numerous reasons

i really hate using pletcher as well. i know if don't use him he'll beat me like he always does.

anybody have any info on the 2? that was a pretty fast race for his maiden victory. should be overlooked as well
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Old 03-23-2019, 11:48 AM   #19
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Still like country house to run well. Always comes with a run. But I think sueno is verrrrry good. I’ll just bet both to win. Maybe box them up
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:25 PM   #20
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The 'good' horses are War of Will, Spinoff, Country House, and Limonite.

War of Will is solid and the horse to beat, but has to prove definitively that he's a Derby contender. Is he a 'Barbaro' type turf to dirt who runs these fields off their feet? Or has he been overachieving and doesn't want to run through the wire into the gallop out?

Spinoff doesn't look a future G1, but he is thriving right now physically, has a high cruising speed, and could definitely cruise near the front and run off with this one, should War of Will flatten out.

Country House needs to put it all together and not break in, or lug in. I think he would have won the Risen Star with a sensible break, and/or a straight path in stretch, but there's a 'grace period' where you either are 'green' or there are underlying issues. He could be the best future horse in this race, or he could be a flash in the pan.

-------
Limonite needs some pace but the quality is there.

-----
Sueno is a well trained profressional, but he can't win a big race 'outright', he depends on several horses to come back to him.

----

,, likely need complete dream trip
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:48 PM   #21
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Win bet on SUENO
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Old 03-23-2019, 02:41 PM   #22
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Gonna key the #11 second and third in tris with a small win bet.
Think he gets a piece at a good price.
Using the 4-6 on top
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Old 03-23-2019, 02:41 PM   #23
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Uber good stuff . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper View Post
This is one of the two races I wrote analysis for (free) Keeneland Select:

I'm keying Sueno top and bottom but absolutely betting a few bucks to win and place on Limonite, who was stopped when rallying last time out.

https://www.keenelandselect.com/blog...k-day-march-23
I read you analysis over at Keeneland Select . . . thanks, good stuff. I found your info regarding War Front's sons and daughters particularly compelling . . .
War of Will could win his third straight graded stakes but there are a couple of things which may be against him as well. Per a STATS Race Lens query I ran, sire War Front’s sons and daughters are 0 for 20 the last five years at distances of nine to ten furlongs on dirt. Secondly, although War of Will won the Risen Star easily, his 97 figure was a regression from the 107 he earned one month earlier in the LeComte and I have concerns when a horse on the Derby trail has a regression like that from one race to the next.
The War of Will against the percentages. I figure he'll be tough to beat and I don't see him givin' up w/o a fight. Looking forward to seein' what he has for em' going 9 panels.

Lovin' the Derby Trail . . .
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Last edited by Blenheim; 03-23-2019 at 02:43 PM. Reason: Typo . . .
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Old 03-23-2019, 05:35 PM   #24
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IMO War of Will is clearly the horse to beat. His race in the Risen from the 13 post I felt was very good.

The main issue I have with Sueno is that Corey is riding him and not Kent.
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Old 03-23-2019, 05:40 PM   #25
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Still improving, will benefit from a fast pace
The one to beat -proven winner
Beyer his win is IMHO grossly wrong - his figs give him a shot in here at a $$$
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Old 03-23-2019, 05:43 PM   #26
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FGX RACE 13

MY TWO CENTS WORTH
10 to win
ex box 8-10

reason...... my b-day 10-8

good luck all
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Old 03-23-2019, 05:54 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699 View Post
I will make a $50WPS bet on Limonite 20/1.

I had been waiting on this colt since last year and his first race back trip in the Risen Star was not the best trip from the #10 post. Now put on Jose Ortiz and I am all over it.

GL
Opens at 16-1. I am still on him!!!!!!
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Old 03-23-2019, 06:05 PM   #28
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$2 Ex




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Old 03-23-2019, 06:18 PM   #29
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Would like to see the actually get out of the gate. I still like Sueno & Country House as they load up.
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Old 03-23-2019, 06:21 PM   #30
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Quote:
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Opens at 16-1. I am still on him!!!!!!
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