Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The fact that basically every DRF employee has a vote shows it's a broken system. Saying there is only one argument reflects arrogance, whether or not you meant it that way. Perhaps "I only see one argument" was what you meant?

It's fine that you don't play the Pick-6. However, given that, it's not fine that you think you can tell others how to play it.

That last statement doesn't make a lot of sense. I don't play roulette, but I can certainly figure out optimal strategy (i.e., which bets are mathematically least bad).

The reality is there are some relatively obvious truths about what constitutes good and bad wagering strategy that anyone who is good at math and has some betting experience should be able to identify. Indeed, part of the nature of gambling is that more than occasionally, the folks who like particular bets can get somewhat indisciplined about EV calculations.

[Tom]

If you are familiar with the long term record for figures in Triple Crown races, when you see a 97 for the Preakness your thinking is going to be impacted somewhat whether you realize it or not.

Nope. I immediately question the figure.
I see a lot of figs the last few years that make me laugh.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Tom

Andy Beyer will be on ATR tomorrow - Steve teased that he will make the case for why Justify should NOT be HOY.

He was just on.
I have to admit I did not agree with much at all of what he had to say.
Tony Black was on next and I think he was far more on the money about it.

He did say the TC was easier to win these days.......yes, we just had 2 in 39 years, FGS!

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Let's say the following scenario happened with Justify...

As Justify crosses the wire after winning the Belmont, the horse gallops out around the turn and suddenly breaks down...memories of Eight Belles slams into our minds.

The horse tragically can't be saved and goes down in history as an undefeated Triple Crown winner at the time of his passing.

So, does this scenario change HOY voting sentiment? Of course it would, as Justify would be unanimously chosen for HOY, no question about it.

However, that scenario never took place, as Justify simply retires after a career ending injury instead, which no one seems to believe.

I guess those who oppose Justify would have rather seen the horse drop dead from an injury, rather than have the horse retire from an injury, calling the "retirement" a fraud......or maybe the connections somehow "cheated" to win the Belmont.

Bottom-line, the conversation in this thread shows me what's wrong with horse racing, and it's not Justify's fault, the horse did nothing wrong....unblemished record and all.....Nope, what's wrong with this debate, is the handicappers with their blemished opinions.

The argument you make ignores that justify’s injury was so severe (not) that they kept talking of running him for quite awhile. So it doesn’t make most anyone believe he couldn’t have raced again. If it was the truth and they wanted to have us believe it, all they had to do was release the vet report where the diagnosis and prognosis backed them up.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I've heard it all now...the Whitney and Pacific Classic, according to Dilanesp, are prep races?

Just because you think something doesn't make it true. In fact, in your case, it's beginning to appear the opposite.

While you are clearly unable to quit, I guess it's better that you're addicted to posting drivel on message boards as opposed to dangerous drugs, it might be worth at least considering taking a break ( not that we don't enjoy the comedy ).Then again, at least you're more entertaining than Classhandicapper.

You really need to quit proving with every post that the Napoleon complex is real.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Exactly who are you to make these absurd statements?

This is as ridiculous as you opining on and on about how to put together Pick-6s when you rarely, if ever, have played them.

Exactly who are you to talk to other people this way?

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That last statement doesn't make a lot of sense. I don't play roulette, but I can certainly figure out optimal strategy (i.e., which bets are mathematically least bad).

The reality is there are some relatively obvious truths about what constitutes good and bad wagering strategy that anyone who is good at math and has some betting experience should be able to identify. Indeed, part of the nature of gambling is that more than occasionally, the folks who like particular bets can get somewhat indisciplined about EV calculations.

Except the Pick 6 and roulette (or whatever) are not remotely the same thing. Horse racing is much more fluid---or at least multirace wagers are. So for laying out tickets, if you have actually participated in those wagers it's an advantage to learning the reality of what works and what doesn't. Some textbook logic only works with unlimited bankrolls in fictional situations.

As far as HOY, again, I think winning the Triple Crown is the biggest accomplishment in racing and should be rewarded. Of course there are scenarios where the TC winner doesn't get the award, but I don't think this year is it. Otherwise just give the award to the older male horse with the best speed figures every year and let's be done with it.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

I personally don't even really consider figures much when I vote. I look at accomplishments. Figures are a betting tool in my opinion, not one that should decide year end awards.

Speed figures have value in year end awards for the same reason they have value in betting. They are a mesaure of how good a race a horse ran which is also a measure of accomplishment.

[bobphilo]

What does Pick 6 strategy have anything to do with who should be the Eclipse HOY ? Two totaly unrelated threads.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Except the Pick 6 and roulette (or whatever) are not remotely the same thing. Horse racing is much more fluid---or at least multirace wagers are. So for laying out tickets, if you have actually participated in those wagers it's an advantage to learning the reality of what works and what doesn't. Some textbook logic only works with unlimited bankrolls in fictional situations.

I don't disagree with you that wagering experience is valuable. But that's a much narrower claim than you made before, which was that nobody who doesn't play specific bets can comment on strategy.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Speed figures have value in year end awards for the same reason they have value in betting. They are a mesaure of how good a race a horse ran which is also a measure of accomplishment.

Definitely. I'm surprised anyone would think differently.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Definitely. I'm surprised anyone would think differently.

Within divisions, I've never really found it necessary. For horse of the year, I don't really find the comparisons fair. I'd certainly give them a look in close calls.

[Tom]

What about the voters who use BRIS figures.....imagine who they would make HOY!

[Thomas Roulston]

No way does an undefeated Triple Crown winner ever not get at least champion 3-year-old colt, if not necessarily Horse Of The Year (if an older horse was undefeated in the same year and won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 1:56 and change, maybe the older horse does get HOY).

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

What about the voters who use BRIS figures.....imagine who they would make HOY!

lol

That's the problem. Whose figures?

Beyer figures?

Timeform figures?

Thorograph?

Ragozin?

homemade?

They all use various combinations of pace, weight, and ground loss on top of having different views on when and if to split out races. Figures reflect the beliefs and subjective analysis of the figure maker. They include different things and are often FAR apart.

Then of course, what if you thought the rail was good/bad, the track was speed favoring or tiring, etc..

Does that get included?

All of this is fine when you are gambling because you gravitate to the figures and use the trip insights that reflect you own way of thinking about things. But it gets a little dicey when you are talking about year end awards.

Fortunately, most of the time, you aren't going to need figures to figure out who was best because the best horses prove it on the track by accomplishing the most too.