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Old 03-18-2023, 02:33 PM   #16
Poindexter
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Originally Posted by Bustin Stones View Post
It's well written however it only restates the problems. We need articles that propose usable solutions. I'd like to see that someone in the industry wants to address pace of play. Every other form of entertainment is or has addressed it. When an industry or a company is contracting, literally everything is on the table. Nothing is too radical to at least discuss.
You are the one person in this forum who shot down the usable solution. You want the game to succeed, you eliminate rebates, you have a 8 percent wps take, a 10 percent double and exacta takeout, a 15 percent takeout on every other exotic. Penny breakage would help a lot but is less important. If the current system won’t allow then you amend it. If the whales won’t go for it then tough shit, because they ultimately aren’t going to have anybody to bet against anyhow. So better that they sacrifice now than later.

I don’t know why this is such a difficult concept. If you are priced too high consumers will find alternatives. The fact that they choose mindless slot machines (or whatever you want to call them) over the ultimate gambling games should speak volumes (if you open your mind and think).

Once you fix the pricing that is when you can start the marketing phase. Marketing a game that is charging the consumer at least double and as much as 6 times (sports betting take vs average roi of the non rebated exotic player) is futile. The edge racing has over much of its competition is that it is ultimately beatable when priced correctly. When not priced correctly see posts by Michael and SJK.

Now the problem is that the clock is ticking. The more people become comfortable and proficient with sports betting and dfs and poker the harder it is to reel them into your game. Also if racing is indeed in the decline mode currently, every day you wait to fix the lower you top will be.

I think with all that is happening outside of racing (the crypto company and recent bank collapses) that maybe it is time for the people in this industry to realize that the same can happen to them. It is a pretty big industry and it about time for the people in this industry stop pretending that tomorrow is promised.

Now i do not pretend to have any idea what the motivations are of the gaming companies that are involved in racing. For all I know everything is going great for them with the ultimate prize being a bunch of mindless gamblers pumping huge amounts of money into low cost gambling machines.

One last note. You can give rewards without giving rebates. I realize that rewards are a big part of the gambling scene. Perks are fine, rebates are not.
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Old 03-18-2023, 03:42 PM   #17
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You're not going to beat the other forms of gambling by trying to sell racing as a gambling product, that much is clear. It simply costs too much to create the product.

You can beat the other forms of gambling by having big events. Saratoga, Del Mar, Keeneland, and the Triple Crown are obvious examples.

But none of this matters when there's no national body determining race dates, schedules, meets, etc. Everybody is losing except the state-level politicians and trainers in the current environment.
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Old 03-18-2023, 04:20 PM   #18
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It simply costs too much to create the product.
I agree.

It’s a significant disadvantage.

That’s what I was indirectly referring to when I was talking about the underlying economics of the sport being so bad. The sport doesn’t just need more gamblers that bet more. It needs more owners!!! If too many small time owners are losing too much money even with a substantial portion of the casino money going towards purses, that’s telling you how bad the underlying economics are and how hard it’s going to be fix. I’m not privileged to see all the numbers, but I still suspect that long term we are going to wind up with a much smaller higher quality sport where the economics of the remaining tracks make sense for a lot more of the interests.
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Old 03-18-2023, 05:00 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I agree.

It’s a significant disadvantage.

That’s what I was indirectly referring to when I was talking about the underlying economics of the sport being so bad. The sport doesn’t just need more gamblers that bet more. It needs more owners!!! If too many small time owners are losing too much money even with a substantial portion of the casino money going towards purses, that’s telling you how bad the underlying economics are and how hard it’s going to be fix. I’m not privileged to see all the numbers, but I still suspect that long term we are going to wind up with a much smaller higher quality sport where the economics of the remaining tracks make sense for a lot more of the interests.
Therein lies a (chicken or the egg) paradox.

Where do (or did) owners (used to) come from?

A fair percentage came from fans who stuck around long enough to become horseplayers.

From there a select few went on to become owners.

I'll stick my neck out and make the argument that creation of new owners is a function of customer demand for the product.

I'll also stick my neck out and say yearly foal crop is also a function of customer demand for the product.

In turn, customer demand for the product is a function of the product being embraced by the general public as a compelling gambling game.

Because that's literally what it is.

Horseracing (in the eyes of the public for 360 days a year) is a (not so) compelling gambling game.

For purposes of this thread I'll define a compelling gambling game as one that is currently seeing growth in terms of total customer spend on the product after adjusting for inflation.

Imo, every compelling gambling game that you can name has two key elements:

1. Integrity - public perception is that the game is regulated in such a way that the game is on the up and up.

2. Optimal Pricing - the takeout, vig, or house edge isn't so high vs. other forms of gaming that it is driving business away.


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Last edited by Jeff P; 03-18-2023 at 05:05 PM.
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Old 03-18-2023, 05:18 PM   #20
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"You are the one person in this forum who shot down the usable solution. You want the game to succeed, you eliminate rebates, you have a 8 percent wps take, a 10 percent double and exacta takeout, a 15 percent takeout on every other exotic. Penny breakage would help a lot but is less important. If the current system won’t allow then you amend it. If the whales won’t go for it then tough shit, because they ultimately aren’t going to have anybody to bet against anyhow. So better that they sacrifice now than later." By Poindexter

I contend that you could eliminate the takeout and racing would not compete with other forms of gambling. When racing was a success it was marketed as a sporting event. Folks did not come to the track hoping to quit their job and earn a living there. This is why I say that the serious handicappers who contribute to these threads have an agenda that doesn't reflect the average slob who wants to forget that job he hates for an afternoon and be entertained. The army of people sitting and watching from home won't save the sport. It's only because when we go to the track we spend half our time staring at monitors because the live racing is too slow. The pace is straight out of the 40's. People want action when they're being entertained. And maybe i'm the only person in here that thinks that means something. But, this is the "idea meeting" and we should be discussing anything no matter how far fetched.
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Old 03-18-2023, 05:40 PM   #21
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One last note. You can give rewards without giving rebates. I realize that rewards are a big part of the gambling scene. Perks are fine, rebates are not.
Funny how Nevada outlawed rebates, but rebates are given in cyberspace....It's all compromised.
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Old 03-18-2023, 06:18 PM   #22
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[QUOTE=The_Turf_Monster;2864981... Everybody is losing except the state-level politicians and trainers in the current environment.[/QUOTE]

With their ownership of Elite Turf no doubt making nice contributions to their bottom line, it's entirely possible that NYRA & Stronach are doing OK "in the current environment. Haven't noticed either of them clamoring to make drastic changes to the current set-up of take-out, rebates, etc.
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Old 03-18-2023, 08:24 PM   #23
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Everything the article says and what folks are saying here is true . But Jeff P touched on the basic point that I don’t really know how this game solves this . Horse racing is no longer a compelling gambling game for many in this society . Especially when you’re trying to entice a mass number of smaller betting fans . I mean, the lack of entrants and some of the “extracurricular “ nonsense with rules even turns off the hardened horse player . The other problem is the make up of the game and playing it . We live in an ADHD , instant gratification world now . People are not going to learn the complex nature of handicapping and then sit there for 20 minutes to see a race that lasts 2 minutes or less . When they can push a button every few seconds and have almost constant action going . Or bet their favorite team where they pretty much have a 50/50 chance of winning . You ask people and they’ll say reading the form gives them a headache . They want to take a chance and see results , and then move on . And the illusion of a big Jack pot just entices the “gold rush” or hit of dopamine they receive in an Instant. Baseball is seeing the same sort of problem . They gotta add time clocks and rules because folks these days are not going to sit there for hours . It’s just not in this Society’s DNA. I don’t know how they make it more compelling to the audience they are trying to capture. And with the quality of what we get for these purses they pay ……..you have actual horse players that are balking and playing less. At this point they can’t afford to chase the biggest bettors away …….. then where would the game be ? It’s as close to a pyramid scheme as you can get . Everything goes to the biggest tracks , bettors and barns and with the attrition rate of the biggest stars you can get Grade 3 horses running for millions now . Who wants to buy horses and go against these people? So, the overall product gets less compelling to the common Joe annually.

Last edited by burnsy; 03-18-2023 at 08:32 PM.
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Old 03-18-2023, 09:18 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Therein lies a (chicken or the egg) paradox.

Where do (or did) owners (used to) come from?

A fair percentage came from fans who stuck around long enough to become horseplayers.

From there a select few went on to become owners.

I'll stick my neck out and make the argument that creation of new owners is a function of customer demand for the product.

I'll also stick my neck out and say yearly foal crop is also a function of customer demand for the product.

In turn, customer demand for the product is a function of the product being embraced by the general public as a compelling gambling game.

Because that's literally what it is.

Horseracing (in the eyes of the public for 360 days a year) is a (not so) compelling gambling game.

For purposes of this thread I'll define a compelling gambling game as one that is currently seeing growth in terms of total customer spend on the product after adjusting for inflation.

Imo, every compelling gambling game that you can name has two key elements:

1. Integrity - public perception is that the game is regulated in such a way that the game is on the up and up.

2. Optimal Pricing - the takeout, vig, or house edge isn't so high vs. other forms of gaming that it is driving business away.



-jp

.
IMO...every "compelling gambling game" must also have a 3rd key element. It must feature a bunch of players who have started at the relative bottom and, through skill and perseverance, have climbed up the ladder to the point where they have amassed real wealth by putting their knowledge to proper use. The betting public needs examples such as these as proof that the time and effort required to "master" this game comes with the possible prerequisite monetary reward.

Poker has players like that...and so does sports betting and the stock market. But horse racing's only "big winners" are a few mysterious computer guys who are playing an entirely different game than the rest of us are.
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Old 03-19-2023, 12:04 AM   #25
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With their ownership of Elite Turf no doubt making nice contributions to their bottom line, it's entirely possible that NYRA & Stronach are doing OK "in the current environment. Haven't noticed either of them clamoring to make drastic changes to the current set-up of take-out, rebates, etc.
I agree, the ADW's are set up to profit.

One detriment to being a compelling gambling game is that horse racing is the only game where when I hit "bet," my odds can and will change before I'm paid. That needs to stop
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Old 03-19-2023, 09:36 AM   #26
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Jeff,

I agree with everything you said.

Markets sometimes have self reinforcing upward or downward cycles. Racing is in a downward cycle where the game is not attractive enough relative to alternatives for gamblers, that leads to players dropping out, that leads to less ability to make it more attractive to owners and gamblers, that leads to fewer owners, that leads to lower demand for horses, that leads to smaller fields, that leads to an even less attractive game for gamblers… You have to short circuit that process and get moving into a self reinforcing positive direction, but I’ve come to think this industry can’t handle the truth about what has to be done and then move fast enough.

Thaskalos,

I was pretty sure tournaments were going to be a spark to bring some new blood into the game the way poker tournaments did for poker. You’d see a few non pros make a score like Moneymaker and that would be it. I don’t follow the tournament scene at all, but I don’t think it gets enough coverage and it’s certainly not on ESPN where a LOT of people get exposed to it. I’m assuming that’s at least part of why I was wrong. No one knows or cares about tournaments except that smallish group of tournament players and everyone else is playing privately.
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Old 03-19-2023, 10:14 AM   #27
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Everything the article says and what folks are saying here is true . But Jeff P touched on the basic point that I don’t really know how this game solves this . Horse racing is no longer a compelling gambling game for many in this society . Especially when you’re trying to entice a mass number of smaller betting fans . I mean, the lack of entrants and some of the “extracurricular “ nonsense with rules even turns off the hardened horse player . The other problem is the make up of the game and playing it . We live in an ADHD , instant gratification world now . People are not going to learn the complex nature of handicapping and then sit there for 20 minutes to see a race that lasts 2 minutes or less . When they can push a button every few seconds and have almost constant action going . Or bet their favorite team where they pretty much have a 50/50 chance of winning . You ask people and they’ll say reading the form gives them a headache . They want to take a chance and see results , and then move on . And the illusion of a big Jack pot just entices the “gold rush” or hit of dopamine they receive in an Instant. Baseball is seeing the same sort of problem . They gotta add time clocks and rules because folks these days are not going to sit there for hours . It’s just not in this Society’s DNA. I don’t know how they make it more compelling to the audience they are trying to capture. And with the quality of what we get for these purses they pay ……..you have actual horse players that are balking and playing less. At this point they can’t afford to chase the biggest bettors away …….. then where would the game be ? It’s as close to a pyramid scheme as you can get . Everything goes to the biggest tracks , bettors and barns and with the attrition rate of the biggest stars you can get Grade 3 horses running for millions now . Who wants to buy horses and go against these people? So, the overall product gets less compelling to the common Joe annually.
While the instant action society is overall true, I don't agree with your conclusions. Sporting events take 2 to 4 hours and people have no problem betting on them. The poker boom was dominated by men under 30 who had no problem learning a complex game and winning. Horse racing has races every half-hour, but with simulcasting (and this has been going on for 30 years) you could have near-constant action if you wanted to---but that would be dumb because overall you have little chance of winning. And THAT is the problem.

But the second part of what you wrote I do agree with, and it's also the root of the problem. Each year, the whales/CRW teams are a bigger part of the handle. So each year, the chance that racetracks will do anything drastic to benefit the average player gets smaller and smaller. Right now the game's financial system requires a total teardown, but half of our current tracks wouldn't survive that teardown. So how can we expect those same racetracks to do anything that would jeopardize the very shaky system they've created and now rely on?

It's an ugly situation for a horseplayer.
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Old 03-19-2023, 02:21 PM   #28
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While the instant action society is overall true, I don't agree with your conclusions. Sporting events take 2 to 4 hours and people have no problem betting on them. The poker boom was dominated by men under 30 who had no problem learning a complex game and winning. Horse racing has races every half-hour, but with simulcasting (and this has been going on for 30 years) you could have near-constant action if you wanted to---but that would be dumb because overall you have little chance of winning. And THAT is the problem.

But the second part of what you wrote I do agree with, and it's also the root of the problem. Each year, the whales/CRW teams are a bigger part of the handle. So each year, the chance that racetracks will do anything drastic to benefit the average player gets smaller and smaller. Right now the game's financial system requires a total teardown, but half of our current tracks wouldn't survive that teardown. So how can we expect those same racetracks to do anything that would jeopardize the very shaky system they've created and now rely on?

It's an ugly situation for a horseplayer.

Don't you think in-game betting has changed betting on sporting events from being a 2-4 hour endeavor?
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Old 03-19-2023, 02:59 PM   #29
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It's an ugly situation for a horseplayer.
The first 3 months of this year have been the worst I've seen, maybe ever.

I'll continue though the Keeneland meet and if things don't change, I will stick to betting sports until Saratoga and Del Mar.
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Old 03-20-2023, 02:48 AM   #30
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"You are the one person in this forum who shot down the usable solution. You want the game to succeed, you eliminate rebates, you have a 8 percent wps take, a 10 percent double and exacta takeout, a 15 percent takeout on every other exotic. Penny breakage would help a lot but is less important. If the current system won’t allow then you amend it. If the whales won’t go for it then tough shit, because they ultimately aren’t going to have anybody to bet against anyhow. So better that they sacrifice now than later." By Poindexter

I contend that you could eliminate the takeout and racing would not compete with other forms of gambling. When racing was a success it was marketed as a sporting event. Folks did not come to the track hoping to quit their job and earn a living there. This is why I say that the serious handicappers who contribute to these threads have an agenda that doesn't reflect the average slob who wants to forget that job he hates for an afternoon and be entertained. The army of people sitting and watching from home won't save the sport. It's only because when we go to the track we spend half our time staring at monitors because the live racing is too slow. The pace is straight out of the 40's. People want action when they're being entertained. And maybe i'm the only person in here that thinks that means something. But, this is the "idea meeting" and we should be discussing anything no matter how far fetched.
IMO, you are too laser focused on people who are not the target market for 2023.
Your target market as I have stated before is your advantage gambler. A person that is using logic, stat analysis, analytics, computers to try and conquer sports betting and dfs. These folks if they ever converted to the game would not be pen and paper handicappers, like I still am and everybody was 30 years ago. I keep reading how slow the game is. There are races going off every few minutes. If you fix the pricing then you have a market. Once you develop a market everybody develops a niche. Some will focus on verticals or horizontals or straight betting. How about conditional betting similar to what caw is doing maybe at post time instead of the bell. Parlays, round robins, carryovers. This game offers a ton of options if the industry ever decides the prioritize the bettor. Meanwhile the folks you are talking about will join the market as the game become more popular and gains exposure. If they aren’t losing 30 percent on the dollar maybe they might stick around. Also once a market is developed again there will be all kinds of new methods used by the public to generate picks. Computerized tools etc.

Obviously the racing industry agrees with you. They have been all in on this nonsense for over 20 years. The article that the op quoted explains just how well it has worked. Imo this sport was killed with a stupid rebating policy. This policy has driven tons of people from the sport and keeps newer customers from sticking around. All the other issues that are brought up are easy to blame. There may be some truth to some of them. That doesn’t mean the sport cannot thrive if pricing is corrected and a lot of good and creative marketing is used to grow the sport. But if you don’t fix the pricing the sport goes nowhere. That 50 percent after inflation drop over the last 20 years may happen in 8 to ten years this time around. The bigger problem is whales only made up about 5 percent of the pool 20 years ago. They can’t grow their betting now without the industry putting more fish in the sea. As the public money becomes less and less so does the amount they can bet. So lose another billion in public money you lose much more than a billion dollars in total handle. It will become quite the vicious cycle.

So like it or not, agree or not, if you want this game to make it, you fix the pricing and use those real smart people to creatively market the game. Otherwise as things get worse and worse, look for takeout hikes/higher rebates to help feed the whales until they eventually kill the market permanently.

I have no idea why anyone can possibly think that what has failed for the last 20 years can possibly succeed now. I also have no idea why these business relationships with other forms of gambling will not eventually exclude horse racing. What will horse racing bring to the table if it continues to slide.

Last edited by Poindexter; 03-20-2023 at 02:52 AM.
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