This is not a good start for the year.

[Poindexter]

https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...-upward-trend/

Wagering on racing is down 6.2% for January and February combined, despite, more race days, more races and inflation. But no worries, purses are up over 8% for the year, so life is good.

Maybe the 2 big mandatory payouts we had over the weekend will help March get back on track.

[ReplayRandall]

Horse racing can't afford another 2 months like it just had....I know I can't.

[PaceAdvantage]

And the weather in NY has lead to probably the fewest cancellations this winter then I've seen in like forever...then again, CA has probably cancelled more this winter then ever before...

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...-upward-trend/

Wagering on racing is down 6.2% for January and February combined, despite, more race days, more races and inflation. But no worries, purses are up over 8% for the year, so life is good.

Maybe the 2 big mandatory payouts we had over the weekend will help March get back on track.

this certainly had to do with older people staying at home looking for things to do during the worst of the pandemic from 2020-22, created a wave which may be subsiding

and yes, racing has been terrible in 2023 (in the US) relatively speaking, and surely that hasn't helped

this Big A meet has been particularly, unprecedentedly awful

[PaceAdvantage]

yeah, i'm sure that's the reason

Don't you know? It's totally the little guy's fault

Or as you affectionately just called him in your last post in another thread...the putz

[Onesome]

Im sure the horsemen will come up with a solution of raising takeout rates to increase purses as the way to go....sigh

[lamboguy]

when the weather gets better, the horses go to Belmont and then Saratoga, those meets will more than make up for the shortfall that winter racing brings. this year was especially challenging because there was no more inner dirt and lots of people loved playing the inner. those people now dice up their business with other tracks that run at the same time. lots of horseplayers made the inner their priority meet year after year.

[$w1fT]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

when the weather gets better, the horses go to Belmont and then Saratoga, those meets will more than make up for the shortfall that winter racing brings. this year was especially challenging because there was no more inner dirt and lots of people loved playing the inner. those people now dice up their business with other tracks that run at the same time. lots of horseplayers made the inner their priority meet year after year.

That doesn’t explain the drop off the last two years…

The inner has been gone for awhile…

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

when the weather gets better, the horses go to Belmont and then Saratoga, those meets will more than make up for the shortfall that winter racing brings. this year was especially challenging because there was no more inner dirt and lots of people loved playing the inner. those people now dice up their business with other tracks that run at the same time. lots of horseplayers made the inner their priority meet year after year.

These numbers are for the whole industry, not NYRA. Also, they're comparing January and February of 2023 with January and February of 2022---the summer has nothing to do with it and can't "make up" for a winter racing to winter racing comparison.

[Bustin Stones]

It's possible that the expansion of sports betting will have a larger impact on winter racing than it will on summer racing as time goes on.

[Tom]

General stats like this need a deeper dive.

What is the trend look like b region, by track?

Is Aqu down Parx up? Both down while Tampa ans GP ar up?
Is P5 or P6 dropping off while exactas and P4 soaring?

Is it CREW teams? Is it bets up to $50 or bets over $1000?
Is it in short fields?

Be interesting to see some significant studies.

[HorsemenHeist]

How interesting is the racing this time of the year? Saturday is the only day of the week that usually has good field size and quality racing. Even Sunday is a wasteland right now.

[classhandicapper]

We discussed some of this in another thread related to Saratoga handle.

The weather may be a primary driver of handle at Saratoga year to year, but industry wide, the economy matters. All you have to do is look at what happened to industry handle as a result of the 2008 recession. It took a long time just to get back to where we were before that (not even inflation adjusted).

I provided the data at the time and predicted a down period.

During the Covid period, money was extremely loose, people were getting checks from the government, and there was some pent up demand from the period the tracks were closed. Now things are back to normal in that regard, but there are no more government checks, inflation is eating away at disposable income, and there have been layoffs in some industries on top of much stronger competition for sports betting. A tailwind became a headwind.

Obviously, I'm not hoping for a full blown recession, but with inflation still high, the Fed still tightening money, and competition still heating up, a worse period might still be ahead.

[metro]

Fair Ground's turf racing is unplayable as is Gulfstream's poly, Santa Anita overall product has been in decline for close to a decade now. These three used to be the bellwethers, at least for my play, during the winter months. Now I hardly look at them.

Keeneland, as always, will have a great spring meet and Churchill will have a good Derby week. Just praying that the latter's turf course can get somewhere close to what it was in the past, otherwise it too will send a lot of my wagers elsewhere.

[$w1fT]

Major Winter Tracks

Fairgrounds - turf is unplayable and frankly unsafe. Small fields dominated by super trainers Total handle was down 33% from January 2023 from same month 2022.

Aqueduct - up 2% over same period but with 33 more races due to nicer weather. Small fields of cheap claimers and maidens.

Gulfstream- down 4%. Most of their non premier days and dominated by Tapeta races of cheap claimers.

Oaklawn has stayed flat, full fields, but high takeout on almost all wagers.

Santa Anita - down nearly 23% but 27 fewer races from last year due to unusually poor weather. To me, meet has been decent but late odds movements like in the Kilroe are turnoffs.

Aside from the big days, What’s appealing here?

From minor tracks, Tampa and SH (obviously) are also down significantly.

Turfway has taken a big jump in handle due to full fields, penny breakage, low takeout multi race wagers, and move to night time on Saturdays.