College bowl games

[zico20]

Two games today!

Take UAB -11 and the over 45
Take UTSA +1.5 and the over 56

[rastajenk]

Rough start

But there's still 40-something more to go!

Bowl games have to be one of the toughest plays out there. You can handicap for hours and still never know true levels of motivation.

[CheckMark]

Alright time to see if we can do better than last year

Yesterday I went 1-1 SU 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U

College Football Bowl Season 2022-23
SU: 1-1
ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1

I am also including my projected spreads totals and win % for all games

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
LOU wins by 2.95 pts with 44 total pts and a win% of 51.3% to 48.6%
SU Pick: Louisville
ATS Pick: Louisville-1.5
O/U Pick: Under 44.5

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
ORG ST wins by 5.45 pts with 57 total pts and a win% of 52.2% to 47.7%
SU Pick: Oregon State
ATS Pick: Florida+10
O/U Pick: Over 52

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
WSU wins by 4.97 pts with 42 total pts and a win% of 52.3% to 47.6%
SU Pick: Washington State
ATS Pick: Washington State+1.5
O/U Pick: Under 54.5

Lending Tree Bowl
Sou miss wins by 9.98 pts with 48 total pts and a win% of 57.0% to 42.9%
SU Pick: Southern Miss
ATS Pick Southern miss-7
O/U Pick: Over 46.5

New Mexico Bowl
Smu wins by 0.79 pts with 75 total pts and a win% of 50.07% to 49.92%
SU Pick: Smu
ATS Pick: BYU+1.5
O/U Pick: Over 71

Frisco Bowl
Boise St wins by 13.46 pts with 56 total pts and a win% of 57.1% to 42.8%
SU Pick: Boise State
ATS Pick: Boise State-10
O/U Pick: Under 56.5

[zico20]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Rough start

But there's still 40-something more to go!

Bowl games have to be one of the toughest plays out there. You can handicap for hours and still never know true levels of motivation.

Last years bowls was a brutal start and I wound up with an excellent overall record for those who recall. So many players opt out, coaches quit, teams don't care about the game. It is difficult to say the least.

Cincinnati +1.5 and the over 38.5
Fresno St. -3.5 and the over 53
Rice +6.5 and the under 45.5
Florida +10 and the over 53
SMU -3.5 and the under 64
North Texas +10 and the under 59.5

Louisville is missing Cunningham so I went with the other way, as the Bearcats were horrible against the spread all year. Neither team has their head coach also makes this one difficult to predict.

BYU, as everyone knows is my favorite team of all time but Hall is not playing so I don't see them winning. If he had played I would have taken the points. Plus BYU isn't all that great in bowls. Still rooting for the Cougars to win though!

Florida is starting a QB that has never played a down plus I question their motivation for the game. I could see Oregon St winning by three touchdowns or Florida winning the game outright.

Rice doesn't belong in a bowl with a 5-7 record but Southern Mississippi giving that many points is hard to take.

Washington St. last year got beat by lowly Central Michigan in their bowl and Fresno St. is on fire winning their last eight. They smoked Boise St in the MWC championship game so I am looking for another repeat and a chance to beat a PAC 12 team.

North Texas isn't very good and I am a big Boise St fan but it is just a hunch that North Texas will keep it close.

Last year the early bowl games went over the number on most of them and then the under started winning later in the bowls. This year it flipped so far.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Alright time to see if we can do better than last year

Yesterday I went 1-1 SU 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U

College Football Bowl Season 2022-23
SU: 1-1
ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1

I am also including my projected spreads totals and win % for all games

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
LOU wins by 2.95 pts with 44 total pts and a win% of 51.3% to 48.6%
SU Pick: Louisville
ATS Pick: Louisville-1.5
O/U Pick: Under 44.5

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
ORG ST wins by 5.45 pts with 57 total pts and a win% of 52.2% to 47.7%
SU Pick: Oregon State
ATS Pick: Florida+10
O/U Pick: Over 52

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
WSU wins by 4.97 pts with 42 total pts and a win% of 52.3% to 47.6%
SU Pick: Washington State
ATS Pick: Washington State+1.5
O/U Pick: Under 54.5

Lending Tree Bowl
Sou miss wins by 9.98 pts with 48 total pts and a win% of 57.0% to 42.9%
SU Pick: Southern Miss
ATS Pick Southern miss-7
O/U Pick: Over 46.5

New Mexico Bowl
Smu wins by 0.79 pts with 75 total pts and a win% of 50.07% to 49.92%
SU Pick: Smu
ATS Pick: BYU+1.5
O/U Pick: Over 71

Frisco Bowl
Boise St wins by 13.46 pts with 56 total pts and a win% of 57.1% to 42.8%
SU Pick: Boise State
ATS Pick: Boise State-10
O/U Pick: Under 56.5

WOW! You are predicting that SMU is going to win the game by one point. I am not sure I have ever seen anyone that confident in a score or did you make a mistake.

[woodbinepmi]

With the portal, kids leaving for the draft and teams that don't want to be there, bowls have become nothing but shooting craps.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by zico20

WOW! You are predicting that SMU is going to win the game by one point. I am not sure I have ever seen anyone that confident in a score or did you make a mistake.

It is just a projection of how much "better" a team is vs the other technically not by how much a team is favoured to win by just 1 pt better in this case

I feel that both Smu and Byu are both very much even in that matchup

Hope that makes sense

[Someday Silent]

For the sake of high drama, NC Central beating Jackson State in overtime was everything you could want.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Alright time to see if we can do better than last year

Yesterday I went 1-1 SU 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U

College Football Bowl Season 2022-23
SU: 1-1
ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1

I am also including my projected spreads totals and win % for all games

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
LOU wins by 2.95 pts with 44 total pts and a win% of 51.3% to 48.6%
SU Pick: Louisville W
ATS Pick: Louisville-1.5 W
O/U Pick: Under 44.5 W

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
ORG ST wins by 5.45 pts with 57 total pts and a win% of 52.2% to 47.7%
SU Pick: Oregon State W
ATS Pick: Florida+10 L
O/U Pick: Over 52 L

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
WSU wins by 4.97 pts with 42 total pts and a win% of 52.3% to 47.6%
SU Pick: Washington State L
ATS Pick: Washington State+1.5 L
O/U Pick: Under 54.5 W

Lending Tree Bowl
Sou miss wins by 9.98 pts with 48 total pts and a win% of 57.0% to 42.9%
SU Pick: Southern Miss W
ATS Pick Southern miss-7 W
O/U Pick: Over 46.5 W

New Mexico Bowl
Smu wins by 0.79 pts with 75 total pts and a win% of 50.07% to 49.92%
SU Pick: Smu L
ATS Pick: BYU+1.5 W
O/U Pick: Over 71 L

Frisco Bowl
Boise St wins by 13.46 pts with 56 total pts and a win% of 57.1% to 42.8%
SU Pick: Boise State W
ATS Pick: Boise State-10 L
O/U Pick: Under 56.5 L

SU went 4-2
ATS went 3-3
O/U went 3-3

Bowl Records (as of 12/17)
SU: 5-3
ATS: 4-4
O/U: 4-4

Back on 12/19 no bowls today

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by zico20

WOW! You are predicting that SMU is going to win the game by one point. I am not sure I have ever seen anyone that confident in a score or did you make a mistake.

Originally Posted by CheckMark

It is just a projection of how much "better" a team is vs the other technically not by how much a team is favoured to win by just 1 pt better in this case

I feel that both Smu and Byu are both very much even in that matchup

Hope that makes sense

Wrong team but right score (never in a million years will I get that right again lol)

Screen Shot 2022-12-18 at 9.39.35 AM.png

[zico20]

Worst start ever to the bowl season. 2-6 ATS and 1-7 o/u. If you read my comments you probably noticed that on Saturday there was only one game that I really liked and felt comfortable about and that was Fresno St. That is all that matters when you are betting. Yes, I actually bet every game but most of them I only put $50 on except Fresno St. I always bet BYU in the bowl game whether I like them or not even though I thought SMU would win Saturday.

Today is another horrible game. UCONN isn't very good but I think they are motivated to win as they haven't been to a bowl in years. Marshall beat Notre Dame but have lost their last three bowl games.

UCONN +11 and the over 40

My thought process is if UCONN can score 14 points then Marshall needs to score 26 to cover which puts it at a push at 40. If you are betting both lines and like Marshall I say to take the under and hope UCONN gets shut down on offense which is a definite possibility.

[CheckMark]

These were my predictions yesterday for marshall and UConn

marshall wins by 13.28 pts with 37 total points and a win% of 57.7% to 42.2%

SU Pick: marshall W
ATS Pick: marshall-10 W
O/U Pick: Under 40.5 L

Updated records (I had to redo it)
SU: 6-3
ATS: 5-4
O/U: 3-5-1

Here are the predictions for today's bowls

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
San Jose St wins by 3.8 pts with 49 total points and a win% of 52.4% to 47.5%
SU Pick: San Jose State
ATS Pick: San Jose State-3.5
O/U Pick: Under 54.5

RoofClaimcom Boca Raton Bowl
Liberty wins by 0.37 pts with 49 total points and a win% of 50.2% to 49.7%
SU Pick: Liberty
ATS Pick: Liberty+4.5
O/U Pick: Under 53.5

[zico20]

Went 1-1 yesterday so I am a putrid 2-7 ATS and 2-7 O/U

I confess I do not follow the MAC at all nor do I ever watch a game from the conference. Yes they suck in bowl games but I am taking both of them.

Eastern Michigan +3.5 and the over 53.5
Toledo -3.5 and the under 53.5

Liberty is without their head coach and several players skipping the game due to transferring. They got buried by New Mexico St. who isn't very good.

Everyone knows I bet on college football, the bowls I bet every game, my range is 50-2000 ATS and 25-500 O/U. Most of these games so far have been difficult to predict, but here is what I have bet so far. Every game has been a $25 wager on the o/u so far. Nothing has jumped out at me yet. Both games today are getting the $25.

UAB $50 Lost
UTSA $200 Lost
Cincinnati $50 Lost
Florida $50 lost
Rice $50 lost
North Texas $50 won
BYU $100 won

I always bet on BYU in the bowl, at least a $100 even if I think they are going to lose. I can't bet against my favorite team, some years it works out and other years it doesn't like last year when UAB beat them. I got lucky this time as I would have bet SMU to cover.

UCONN $50 Lost

Fresno St. WON This was one of three bowls as of now I have identified as a slam dunk. It was a big bet, will leave it at that.

Both games today are obviously only $50 since they are teams in the MAC.

[zico20]

Better day yesterday, record now stands at 3-8 ATS and 4-7 O/U.

Take USA -4.5 and the under 57.5

South Alabama has never appeared in a bowl game and they almost beat UCLA on the road earlier in the season. They have the better defense and running game whereas Western Kentucky is more of a pass oriented team.

$25 on the under and $50 ATS

[CheckMark]

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
So Alabama wins by 1.07 pts with 57 total points and a win% of 50.5% to 49.4%
SU Pick: South Alabama
ATS Pick: Western Kentucky+7.5
O/U Pick: Over 54.5

I will update records as soon as I get the chance!