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Old 04-02-2021, 01:03 PM   #46
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhenry81 View Post
Nitro, if those results are typical, you have either arrived or are on your way!
BTW, would you care to loosely share how you arrive at "Par"

jh
The PAR value is established through an analysis of ALL of the money combined from all of the betting pools being analyzed.
Each entry in the race is also provided with individual value at each betting interval.
These values are first compared to each other and then to the PAR value (again at each betting interval).

For the majority of mid-size to large tracks the betting intervals are broken down to 15 mins., 8/9 mins, and 4/5 mins to post.

Reviewing the O.A. intervals of entry and Par values will generally provide a good picture of the betting patterns. If the pattern is clear and the odds value (or Will Pays) of the contenders chosen is decent then it’s a Play. If not it’s a Pass
To get a better idea of what I’ve just described you can view an entire analysis here;
Post #46
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=163892&page=4
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Old 04-02-2021, 01:08 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Tape Reader View Post
Nitro: Is there a user group for the software that you use?
I believe there might be a "User Group" but since I'm not the developer of the tote analysis program I don't have access to that info. From what I've been told the program is no longer available for sale.
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Old 04-02-2021, 01:13 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Yeah, like that would happen.
Damn, if only I'd been around I would have locked it up!
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Old 04-02-2021, 01:37 PM   #49
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Thanks Nitro
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Old 04-02-2021, 04:26 PM   #50
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Damn, if only I'd been around I would have locked it up!
It would have put you in the running for a Nobel
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Old 04-02-2021, 04:27 PM   #51
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Why would anyone lock this thread?

Some people thrive on this kind of content...lol
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Old 04-02-2021, 06:51 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
I believe there might be a "User Group" but since I'm not the developer of the tote analysis program I don't have access to that info. From what I've been told the program is no longer available for sale.
Thanks, Nitro.

Played around with having tote board theories programed a few years ago. Too expensive for an individual.

Very much enjoy your posts.
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Old 04-02-2021, 08:27 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Here's a few examples of the sophisticated Tote analysis I use illustrating the last betting interval prior to post time. I don't rely on late money. I view the betting patterns over an entire betting cycle to determine the contenders for potential Vertical play.
From the information posted below see if you can determine the contenders. Then check the results.

4-1-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for GP Race #1 @ 5 minutes to post –
(Entries w/Computed Values lower than or closest to PAR are always of interest)

Code:

5 Min	Ent#
205	1
353	2
124	3
000	4
191	5
000	6
166	7
198	8
132	9
299	10
000	11
000	12
000     13
000	14
000	15
000	16
161	PAR

4-1-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for GP Race #2 @ 5 minutes to post –
(Entries w/Computed Values lower than or closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:

5 Min	Ent#
99	1
91	2
77	3
93	4
107	5
000	6
000	7
000	8
000	9
000	10
000	11
000	12
000	13
000	14
000	15
000	16
89	PAR

4-1-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for GP Race #3 @ 5 minutes to post
(Entries w/Computed Values lower than or closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:

5 Min	Ent#
000	1
199	2
140	3
167	4
270	5
266	6
139	7
212	8
176	9
181	10
294	11
000	12
000	13
000	14
000	15
000	16
169     PAR
I wouldn’t consider this piece of descriptive analytics to be sophisticated, but to each his own.

I don’t think the $2 bettor causes the late odds fluctuations. I think a critical mass of $2 bettors across the nation coupled with tote processors working in batches do
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Old 04-02-2021, 10:44 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster View Post
I wouldn’t consider this piece of descriptive analytics to be sophisticated, but to each his own.

I don’t think the $2 bettor causes the late odds fluctuations. I think a critical mass of $2 bettors across the nation coupled with tote processors working in batches do
You might have my missed previous comments emphasizing my use of the final betting interval (@ 5 Mins to post) in the analysis rather than any late money viewed in just the Win pool (the Odds) as a superior indicator. That's why I only posted that interval portion of the analysis.

Rather than offering a trivial comment you might have guessed that the actual sophistication is built into the analysis itself and the results of course speak for themselves.

Just consider that at specific betting intervals a snapshot of all the money in each of the betting pools being monitored is retrieved. All of that data is then digested and analyzed using specific proprietary formulas to provide a simple output in the form of a numerical value for each entry and Par. The output is then reviewed at each betting interval for the comparisons I mentioned previously.

Yes the output certainly appears unpretentious, so much so that it makes the reviewing process during a typical betting cycle a very quick, easy and ordinary task. Yes, they're even color coded. Just what you need to avoid making judgement errors.

An example of a complete analysis follows:
Hong Kong – Sha Tin – 3-28-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 1 – (Entries w/Values lower than & closest to PAR are always of interest)

Code:

PK	FIN		0	4min	10min	15min	Ent# 
 	 	 	497	541	523	526	1
4	 	 	414	518	480	439	2
 	 	 	547	520	527	514	3
1	1	 	425	291	274	265	4
 	 	 	677	602	556	545	5
3	 	 	463	379	381	370	6
 	 	 	601	617	638	636	7
6	3	 	420	404	401	402	8
2	2	 	489	325	303	312	9
5	4	 	503	373	347	338	10
 	 	 	484	557	571	548	11
 	 	 	527	442	444	417	12
 	 	 	615	551	580	571	13
 	 	 	530	549	536	529	14
 	 	 	476	398	386	378	PAR

Results: 4-9-8-10 – BIG Dutch WIN 122% Profit Margin - PLAYED /
$31.80 Quinella & $162.20 Triple BX & ($717.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!


BTW - Thanks for confirming exactly what I thought you meant by your earlier post (#4).
However, you might want to reconsider your naïve position about the $2 bettor.
Just view the Win and Place pool totals for this race alone in HK:
WIN - 21,476,638 HK$ = 4,295,327 US$
PLC - 22,708,456 HK$ = 4,541,691 US$
,
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Old 04-03-2021, 12:26 AM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster View Post
I don’t think the $2 bettor causes the late odds fluctuations. I think a critical mass of $2 bettors across the nation coupled with tote processors working in batches do
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I am willing to bet my bottom dollar that there isn't even a single person on this board who thinks that these drastic odds dropdowns that we so often see are caused by a mass of small bettors. And I know this because we've discussed this topic here ad nauseam. EVERYBODY here knows that these dropdowns are caused by some ultra-sophisticated hi-tech bettors.
So much for that bet!

This topic may have been "discussed here ad nauseam."
Perhaps Turf Monster missed every one of those conversations.
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Old 04-03-2021, 10:24 AM   #56
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Nitro, would you care to share your $1 returns for all of your various bets with us, for say the last 500 to 1000 races.

thanks
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Old 04-03-2021, 05:05 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
You might have my missed previous comments emphasizing my use of the final betting interval (@ 5 Mins to post) in the analysis rather than any late money viewed in just the Win pool (the Odds) as a superior indicator. That's why I only posted that interval portion of the analysis.

Rather than offering a trivial comment you might have guessed that the actual sophistication is built into the analysis itself and the results of course speak for themselves.

Just consider that at specific betting intervals a snapshot of all the money in each of the betting pools being monitored is retrieved. All of that data is then digested and analyzed using specific proprietary formulas to provide a simple output in the form of a numerical value for each entry and Par. The output is then reviewed at each betting interval for the comparisons I mentioned previously.

Yes the output certainly appears unpretentious, so much so that it makes the reviewing process during a typical betting cycle a very quick, easy and ordinary task. Yes, they're even color coded. Just what you need to avoid making judgement errors.

An example of a complete analysis follows:
Hong Kong – Sha Tin – 3-28-21
TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 1 – (Entries w/Values lower than & closest to PAR are always of interest)

Code:

PK	FIN		0	4min	10min	15min	Ent# 
 	 	 	497	541	523	526	1
4	 	 	414	518	480	439	2
 	 	 	547	520	527	514	3
1	1	 	425	291	274	265	4
 	 	 	677	602	556	545	5
3	 	 	463	379	381	370	6
 	 	 	601	617	638	636	7
6	3	 	420	404	401	402	8
2	2	 	489	325	303	312	9
5	4	 	503	373	347	338	10
 	 	 	484	557	571	548	11
 	 	 	527	442	444	417	12
 	 	 	615	551	580	571	13
 	 	 	530	549	536	529	14
 	 	 	476	398	386	378	PAR

Results: 4-9-8-10 – BIG Dutch WIN 122% Profit Margin - PLAYED /
$31.80 Quinella & $162.20 Triple BX & ($717.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!


BTW - Thanks for confirming exactly what I thought you meant by your earlier post (#4).
However, you might want to reconsider your naïve position about the $2 bettor.
Just view the Win and Place pool totals for this race alone in HK:
WIN - 21,476,638 HK$ = 4,295,327 US$
PLC - 22,708,456 HK$ = 4,541,691 US$
,
The methodology seems unpretentious. A sophisticated predictive analytics package would look forward and not back in time. Again, to each his own. I’m simply adding this to explain that there are people doing this and you would likely make more money if you employed it, if done properly

Last edited by The_Turf_Monster; 04-03-2021 at 05:06 PM.
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Old 04-03-2021, 05:47 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Why would anyone lock this thread?

Some people thrive on this kind of content...lol
There would be three more just like it in no time.
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Old 04-03-2021, 11:49 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Nitro, would you care to share your $1 returns for all of your various bets with us, for say the last 500 to 1000 races.

thanks [/B]
To be honest I would have no interest generating that type of information. Converting all of my plays to illustrate just $1 returns is asking a bit much. However, be my guest for you or anyone else in using the PA “Search” engine to review all of my posted selections (well over 1,000) with their results. All you have to do is enter “Tote Analysis” if you’re logged in and add “Nitro” if you’re not. BTW I have nothing to prove to anyone but myself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster View Post
The methodology seems unpretentious. A sophisticated predictive analytics package would look forward and not back in time. Again, to each his own. I’m simply adding this to explain that there are people doing this and you would likely make more money if you employed it, if done properly
Apparently you’ve once again misinterpreted the entire purpose and function of the tote analysis I’m using. It has absolutely nothing to do with making predictions. It provides very meaningful information about potential contenders during the actual betting cycle in real time. It’s up to those using that information for the potential prediction and perhaps betting purposes.

There’s no reason to further complicate this excellent methodology with a “predictive analytics package”.
As my mentor has pointed out in the past it was always his goal to use a proven engineering philosophy when he developed his tote program. Maybe you’ve heard of it? It’s called the “KISS” principle. (Keep It Simple Stupid”).
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Old 04-04-2021, 10:26 AM   #60
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You can keep it as simple as you want, I’m merely pointing out that the quants that don’t keep it simple are taking money out of the people in the pools that do. Part of me feels bad when I write a machine learning algorithm that advises me to take money out of others’ pockets in the mutuels but the indignantly stubborn opinions from people like you help get me over it
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