jockey usually isn't a big deal.
if Irad Ortiz would've managed to make a matrix-like perfect last move with your 3/1 closer in the original post's scenario, then Miguel Vasquez probably sits a vaguely similar trip and moves a little sooner, but both hit the board.
got a unique situation in Laurel. Rodriguez is so much better he's doing things that others can't.
In some of these races, Rodriguez is the only jock with the magic, and the others are like NPC Non Player Characters.
In the first replay I posted he uses every inch of the 7 furlong race aboard
Mavilus (shout outs to my homeboy, the great Billy Crystal! "Mavilus" so smooth).
this 2nd replay posted he's on
Only Child 1/16/23
he's 11/1 because the form isn't great relative to the field.
it's a 2-turn dirt race, 9 furlongs, and Jaime Rodriguez uses the early speed and the inside draw to his advantage.
Grabs the lead with a balance of aggression and staying within the
's scope of performance.
This has an effect on the entire field, because the good horses are now forced to cede the early position, (or to use horse or go wide).
A smooth professional move, and he actually may even
Win the race right there, if not for a 30/1 bum attempting to press him.
Good move by JR, but I'm selecting races to illustrate the whole jockey picture there and attempt to teach how it can be more of an impact than a normal generic how much do a jockey impact? situation.
So he established a strong beginning to put an 11/1 into contention... Then the jock of the
has a perfect trip and with the better horse should pass the
and probably win if no one else comes up.
So nice start by Rodriguez to run about third w/ an 11/1 shot.
Rewind a touch on the backstretch after the first turn. -
As soon as the first turn is over, the lower odds horses/jockeys should be advancing as much as possible without losing control.
1st Turn was the
barrier, the factor that prevented the good horses from getting up near the lead in striking range (because you lose ground and energy trying to pass 11/1 and 30/1 shots who have nothing to lose), but once that turn is over, you can't just accept the bad position in a coma, you have to go
take it back. As long as you do it before the 2nd turn, you are good to make a middle move for position, and Laurel colony did not show this happening.
You then have MORE factors that help J Rod (not crazy about calling every Rodriguez a "Rod", but it's popular and if you are reading this, you may be a lowest common denominator type of guy)(, or maybe not and you appreciate what I'm sharing)...
You've got a strung-out field which usually means that the pace will be relatively fair to mid-pack and stalking types. However, even though it's strung out, the race still turned out to be relatively forward flow favoring..
the stretched out field is not just an honest pace here, it's very much because of the lack of awareness of the rival jockeys to move up contending horses as soon as the 1st-Turn was cleared. Also has to do with some of the poor performances of the lower-priced horses in here.
All this stuff works together.
Back to the
Uncommon Valor. He has the winning position on the back stretch. He will go on to win this race in an alternate reality, but here, his jockey goes from a 'sit tight!' position and starts subtracting lengths like crazy because of mistakes.
Premature Move - Humphrey starts a drive BEFORE the 2nd turn here
. He's CLUELESS as to what is in front of him. Ugly to see this error.
The other fkup is that in his desperation to move way before he should, he also swings wide and loses significant ground.
Then the horse displays a slight flaw of swapping leads for a stride (probably magnified because he's being asked to do some running, as opposed to a projected efficient ride where he just sits behind the leaders and mows them down once straightened into the stretch run).
So the
is a loser now and we've reached the stretch.
I wouldn't post this video had the 8 gotten a good ride (he wins).
Now we're in the stretch and Rodriguez is AGAIN exaggerated in his talent, because no good horses are firing. One long shot horse is firing, the
Love Machine.
has all the momentum and looks like he'll win, but Rodriguez (who has been lugging out in order to herd the
who never showed up) has a combination of having saved a tiny bit of horse, and also knowing the wire and the timing required.
wins a close photo and only those couple of strides would win, as
goes by.
Mildly impressive is that the segmented replays show the
to have the momentum, but if you watch the race, the
clearly has the momentum. Was a decent last effort by Rodriguez to pull of this illusion.
