Tampa Derby Pick 5

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

To determine what the fair value on this pick 5 we have to convert each horses codes to his before takeout odds.

That's what I do.

I have a spreadsheet where I plug in the Win payoff in each leg, the WPS take at that track, and the payoff.

It tells then me the fair price for the Pick X based on the win prices, the expected price given the take on the Pick X, and the expected ROI.

I can also tinker with the numbers a little. Suppose some horse in the sequence paid $4.00, I think that was a wild underlay, and $6.00 was a more reasonable price. I can plug $6.00 into that leg and it will do a quick recalc. Same in the other direction if I think 1-2 legs contained huge overlays. I can see what the ROI was based on my personal opinions as opposed to the public's.

Doing this has little value before the race, but after the race if you want to determine whether you were better off in the horizontal or just betting any overlays to win, you can calculate ROI estimates based on your opinions going in.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's what I do.

I have a spreadsheet where I plug in the Win payoff in each leg, the WPS take at that track, and the payoff.

It tells then me the fair price for the Pick X based on the win prices, the expected price given the take on the Pick X, and the expected ROI.

I can also tinker with the numbers a little. Suppose some horse in the sequence paid $4.00, I think that was a wild underlay, and $6.00 was a more reasonable price. I can plug $6.00 into that leg and it will do a quick recalc. Same in the other direction if I think 1-2 legs contained huge overlays. I can see what the ROI was based on my personal opinions as opposed to the public's.

Doing this has little value before the race, but after the race if you want to determine whether you were better off in the horizontal or just betting any overlays to win, you can calculate ROI estimates based on your opinions going in.

Sounds like you have it down. Just providing info for anybody interested in the subject. Just to correct my last post (when I post on my phone sometimes words get changed) the word codes should be odds. Sound like you have been charting payoffs for a while. Do you find that a typical pick 5 does indeed pay around double a parlay like it should or do you find they typically pay less or a lot less?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Sounds like you have it down. Just providing info for anybody interested in the subject. Just to correct my last post (when I post on my phone sometimes words get changed) the word codes should be odds. Sound like you have been charting payoffs for a while. Do you find that a typical pick 5 does indeed pay around double a parlay like it should or do you find they typically pay less or a lot less?

Fixed it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Sounds like you have it down. Just providing info for anybody interested in the subject. Just to correct my last post (when I post on my phone sometimes words get changed) the word codes should be odds. Sound like you have been charting payoffs for a while. Do you find that a typical pick 5 does indeed pay around double a parlay like it should or do you find they typically pay less or a lot less?

To be honest, I never look at the parlays, but what you are saying looks good to me.

What I've used it for is to spot check whether it makes more sense for me to bet Win/Verticals or Horizontals when I have opinions.

This isn't necessarily applicable to everyone because I don't have a lot of value oriented opinions, but I'm usually better off in the Verticals. To add value in the horizontals I have to have value opinions in multiple legs of the sequence and play pretty tight tickets. I'd rather just focus on the race in question and try to crush that race instead of wasting time adding legs where I'm bringing nothing to the table that's adding anything.

But some people have an opinion in almost every race (or at least think they do ), want to make huge scores, focus on carryovers etc.. . So they should do what suits them better.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Sounds like you have it down. Just providing info for anybody interested in the subject. Just to correct my last post (when I post on my phone sometimes words get changed) the word codes should be odds. Sound like you have been charting payoffs for a while. Do you find that a typical pick 5 does indeed pay around double a parlay like it should or do you find they typically pay less or a lot less?

I started importing exotic payoff data into my database on 11/18/21. I have the Pick 5 payoffs in my database since then. I'll be able to write some queries to look for any patterns in the betting where the payoffs tend to be more generous than expected and especially more generous than fair value. I'm not sure when I'll get to it. I have other priorities to work on, but I'll let you know. This will beat some of my spot checks via spreadsheet.

[classhandicapper]

Poindexter,

I have all the Pick 5 data for NYRA going back to 11/18/21 in a spreadsheet now.

Track, Date, Race, Winning Combo, ML Odds and Final Odds for each winning horse, Probability of the winning Pick 5 coming in based on Final Odds, Fair Price based on probability of it coming in, whether it paid more or less than the fair price, and percentage under or over fair price it was.

You can sort it as you see fit, delete info, add info etc...

So far I've only spent 15 minutes looking for anything useful and found a couple of things to at least think about.

If you are interested in seeing it, send me a PM and I'll email it to you.