Long detailed article about the big teams. How does this grow the game? It doesn't

[classhandicapper]

(anticipating pace casualties and pace beneficiaries and excluding/including them from your play).

That's one of my approaches to finding short prices horses I can leave out of the exotics. I think to some degree those things get built into prices, especially in a potential dominant speed situation. People will use some of the weaker "suck up" horses more underneath than the win odds suggest.

By the way, I agree. That was a very good interview. It contained some interesting insights.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Oh, too bad. I was hoping that you would post in this thread daily keeping it alive forever.

BTW, perhaps I am mentally on the slow side but why do I have such a hard time understanding your racing posts. I gave up years ago. But word is you aren't profitable, so I guess I am not missing out on anything. Maybe you can start a Formula for dummies thread each day that is a little more understandable for us mentally challenged (or perhaps I am the only one mentally challenged).

the formulas are forever evolving, each improving.
but enough said here, the action is in the selection's forum.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

13 bets on the same horse within 40 seconds. Sounds like he is covering layoff bets for other bookmakers😎.
Again if the bet does not win beyond it's fair value, that 7 percent is distributed to the other bets. Bring in the clowns and bring in the whales. To do a true study on the impact of late betting one needs to analyze the wps and exact tote boards. ATRpro could accommodate that. Its a lot of work but it takes the discussion beyond the conversation mode

I'm sorry to prolong the agony, but what are your thoughts why he made 13 bets in 40 seconds. Why not one singular bet.

[Jeff P]

Some of the bets were designed to test or elicit reaction by other large players.

In that last 40 seconds it's likely other large players might react to the first player's bets on Fast Buck by placing large bets of their own - either on Fast Buck or other horses.

If other large players react by making large bets of their own on other horses, then the first player would be in a position to react to that by making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

Otherwise, the first player likely stops making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

The objective would be maximizing returns.

FWIW, that's my understanding behind what drives money flow in the final minute or so leading up to race off.


-jp
.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Some of the bets were designed to test or elicit reaction by other large players.

In that last 40 seconds it's likely other large players might react to the first player's bets on Fast Buck by placing large bets of their own - either on Fast Buck or other horses.

If other large players react by making large bets of their own on other horses, then the first player would be in a position to react to that by making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

Otherwise, the first player likely stops making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

The objective would be maximizing returns.

FWIW, that's my understanding behind what drives money flow in the final minute or so leading up to race off.


-jp
.

wow, i did not know the tracks publish the win pool dollars that often.
i have been using ATRpro for a few months, and it generates the win pool dollars ever 15 seconds.

So its whale against whale is it. That must make some splash..

back in the day, i had access to the Pari-Mutual room in Aqueduct for a few days.
they understood I was doing research and allowed me in.

I wish they would let me in today.. I do bring a boarder range of knowledge.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Some of the bets were designed to test or elicit reaction by other large players.

In that last 40 seconds it's likely other large players might react to the first player's bets on Fast Buck by placing large bets of their own - either on Fast Buck or other horses.

If other large players react by making large bets of their own on other horses, then the first player would be in a position to react to that by making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

Otherwise, the first player likely stops making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

The objective would be maximizing returns.

FWIW, that's my understanding behind what drives money flow in the final minute or so leading up to race off.


-jp
.

Man, those single-digit-$ bets seem like they're just algo-generated, how would they even be noticed sandwiched between the 4-figure bets? Is that the point? Like those $3 and $6 win bets on Fast Buck.

In any event, when you're getting a large rebate what's the difference? It opens up more options you can do with your $$ other than look for +EV bets while minimizing repercussions.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Some of the bets were designed to test or elicit reaction by other large players.

In that last 40 seconds it's likely other large players might react to the first player's bets on Fast Buck by placing large bets of their own - either on Fast Buck or other horses.

If other large players react by making large bets of their own on other horses, then the first player would be in a position to react to that by making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

Otherwise, the first player likely stops making further incremental bets on Fast Buck.

The objective would be maximizing returns.

FWIW, that's my understanding behind what drives money flow in the final minute or so leading up to race off.


-jp
.

That approach is known as "Price Discovery."

It was used by the whales until about 2016.
Back then they were feeding money in minute-by-minute.

Now it all comes down while the horses are loading the gate, so the money you are seeing before the gate opens does not originate from the whales.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I would start with ITP (inside the pylon's) twitter feed. He just did a 3 hour interview and went really in depth (unlike his prior podcasts) into how he bets and thinks etc. (Bet with the best). Supposedly he is a long time winning player and even though he admits the game is much different (tougher) than it was back in the day, you might be able to pick up some ideas and strategies to help your game. It seems like the general gist of his attack is attacking bad favorites. Personally I watch bad favorites win race after race, so he obviously a more gifted handicapper (in the one minute he spends handicapping) than I am . He also touched on something that was interesting. He seems to think that the caw was limited in trifectas (whether still true or not I have no idea) and superfectas because everything they do is probability based and obviously if the two favorites duel each other chances are one may fade out of the superfecta, perhaps leaving some opportunity in that area (anticipating pace casualties and pace beneficiaries and excluding/including them from your play). He also indicated that he felt that smaller circuits were easier to beat then bigger circuits. All circuits have whales, but maybe stronger whales are at the bigger circuits?

Personally I think the biggest opportunities for horse players right now are pick 5's, even selective pick 4's, carryovers, and or course any mandatory payouts. Super high 5 carryovers (if you are selective) can provide great opportunities.

Good luck with it.

Thank you for a thoughtful response Poindexter.

I've been following Pylons on Twitter as well. While I haven't accepted him as my savior or even been blown away by anything novel, it is insightful even to think along with various wagering discussions and opinions.

You are on the right track with attacking bad favorites. It's a new thing or 'rule' that I hadn't known that they supposedly must bet a minimum every race.

Whatever it is, the pools do feature value. The money is wrong at times, and there's a difference between the money being the money being 'wrong' and the money not being right due to normal randomness. An amateur usually won't see the difference.

It's a pari-mutuel game. I read these threads and, tweets, and it broke my ego. I quit playing. I am demoralized.
just kidding

I don't consider the CAW to be very strong in terms of so-called perfection. I could turn to the darkside and increase their ROI by 50%. The tradeoff to that logic (call it conceited, or logic) is that it's a volume churning game, so some of that ROI difference is knowingly and purposely sacrificed by them in order to constantly churn as much volume as possible.

It's a pari-mutuel game. So, very often they are going to be increasing the effective takeout. Less often, when they are wrong, they are going to increasing the pool and sometimes decreasing takeout (or, just call it a nice +ROI opportunity).

I have some other concerns. I believe if I voiced them as 'fact', some would seem on the level of a 'conspiracy theory'. Just the same, I do read the will-pays.

Hope some of this is well-communicated. My health goes up and down, and it's down. Poor concentration.

[Poindexter]

The beating the bad favorite thing is ITP's not mine. I am not in his league. i even went though my database (woodbine mohawk harness) again to recheck. I compared horses in the 1-1 to 9/5 closing odds (this is a group than wins as often as the final odds projects they should win) range and looked at my line on them. Horses I made over twice as high on my line So on a 1-1 I would have had to make the horse over 2-1) which by his definition I believe would constitute a play against (way over bet performed just as well as the rest of the horses (in the top spot, in the 2 hole and in the 3 hole). As a whole this group is in the trifecta 71.5% (winning 39.7%-good luck not using these horses in my pick 5, let alone boxing 5 horses in a trifecta against them) of the time in a sample of 186 horses. His strategy would take me to the poor house very quickly. I take everybody at their word, but what works for him would not work for me. I have mentioned before I can toss over bet horses above 2-1 and do well, but those typically aren't favorites. So whatever you pick up tread carefully until you know it works.