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Old 05-13-2017, 02:54 AM   #1
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To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

I say NONSENSE.

I've been doing just that for 39 days on this website, in the Selections section, in my "Value Races & Horses" threads.

It doesn't matter the distance, doesn't matter the surface and doesn't matter the track. I've been posting picks from Belmont to Will Rogers Downs.

I haven't looked at a single replay. Haven't used a single trip note. Haven't considered a single jockey, trainer or owner. And I haven't looked at a single breeding line (although I don't bet on races where there is a first time starter or a race where there is a horse who hasn't run over dirt if it's a dirt race or hasn't run over turf if it's a turf race).

In short, I have used nothing but TimeForumUS speed and pace figures in my handicapping. And here is my record on my posted plays to date:

Quote:
ALL PLAYS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (39 Days):

124 for 844 | $1688 Wagered | $1574.70 returned | $0.93 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (39 Days):

73 for 352 | $704 Wagered | $776.50 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)
Now granted I am showing a loss on all plays (all plays are any contender that goes off at or above my odds line), but betting only my top pick when it goes off at, or higher than my value odds line, I am ahead by 10% after 352 races and 39 days, and that's with a paltry 20% strike rate. And no, this positive ROI does NOT include Green Gratto, the 50-1 shot I posted as a top pick in another thread. The Carter did not qualify as a Value Races & Horses race. So my 10% ROI is not relying on some freaky 50-1 winner.

Could I be doing better if I was taking trip notes or considering some of the stuff I am ignoring during this experiment? Probably. But that's not the point.

The point is, don't ever let anyone ever tell you what you CAN'T DO in this game if you want to win, unless you try it out for yourself.

YES YOU CAN win by ONLY USING NUMBERS. And if I can do it, you can rest assured there are a bunch of other people ignoring all of the stuff I've been ignoring as well, and still showing a profit.

YES YOU CAN, even in 2017.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-13-2017 at 02:55 AM.
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Old 05-13-2017, 03:11 AM   #2
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It isn't realistic to expect a profit on ALL your overlays, because by wagering in such a manner, you might be betting on half of the horses in the race. Showing a 10% profit on your top pick after 352 races is unquestionably a GREAT handicapping exhibition.

Those who say that watching replays is "a must in order to win" probably need a new set of speed and pace figures...along with some improvement to their figure-interpreting skills.
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Old 05-13-2017, 03:22 AM   #3
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Both above posts are excellent...posted by WINNERS. 👏
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Old 05-13-2017, 03:53 AM   #4
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I keep hearing this "you HAVE to watch replays, etc" stuff and I'm tying to figure out who said it? Who said you can't win using speed figures only?

That's the great thing about this game. There are lots of ways to play it. I'm sure there are people who can show a profit just betting angles (jock/trainer, 1st time blinkers, 1st time lasix, etc).

I think a rational person would agree the best place to view pace for a race would be figures. Just like the best way to judge a bias or tough trip would be on a replay.

What am I missing?
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Old 05-13-2017, 04:27 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 View Post
I keep hearing this "you HAVE to watch replays, etc" stuff and I'm tying to figure out who said it? Who said you can't win using speed figures only?

That's the great thing about this game. There are lots of ways to play it. I'm sure there are people who can show a profit just betting angles (jock/trainer, 1st time blinkers, 1st time lasix, etc).

I think a rational person would agree the best place to view pace for a race would be figures. Just like the best way to judge a bias or tough trip would be on a replay.

What am I missing?
i will admit 5 star post...i just want to add tilt and bankroll management is what destroys a lot sharp players
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Old 05-13-2017, 05:10 AM   #6
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wonderful results.I assume same size flat bet.
can you tell what the results would be for a proportional odds bet?
bet size =1/(odds+1) based on your odds line and then again the public's final odds.
keep up the good work
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Old 05-13-2017, 09:06 AM   #7
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Now if you were betting with one of the high rebate ADW's, you could turn that .93 maybe into a little profit.

Last edited by green80; 05-13-2017 at 09:08 AM.
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Old 05-13-2017, 09:25 AM   #8
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Gotta mix it up a little?....

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Old 05-13-2017, 11:11 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 View Post
I keep hearing this "you HAVE to watch replays, etc" stuff and I'm tying to figure out who said it? Who said you can't win using speed figures only?

...
Maybe not in precisely those words, but it sounded like a rebuttal intended largely for one of your recently departed good pals. There seemed to be a lot of arguments that software/numbers betting was leading to the riches accumulated by the replay watcher sniffing out things you can't see on paper. I could be wrong, but thought maybe he was goading a return appearance.
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:04 PM   #10
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This reminds me of when Kate Jackson, that ugly, thin actress from Charlie's Angels, felt the need to make the public statement that she would NOT be doing nude scenes.

The overwhelming, and by a HUGE amount, majority of players here, and more generally, rely on speed and pace figures. It's how anyone coming to the game is approaching it these days. Even your thinly veiled target relies on speed and pace figures.

So, other than finding yet another way to remind us of your 54:1 win, what's the point, Mike? Not enough visitors to your daily threads?
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:22 PM   #11
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This reminds me of when Kate Jackson, that ugly, thin actress from Charlie's Angels, felt the need to make the public statement that she would NOT be doing nude scenes.

The overwhelming, and by a HUGE amount, majority of players here, and more generally, rely on speed and pace figures. It's how anyone coming to the game is approaching it these days. Even your thinly veiled target relies on speed and pace figures.

So, other than finding yet another way to remind us of your 54:1 win, what's the point, Mike? Not enough visitors to your daily threads?
Oh, there's definitely some serious braggadocio happening on my end. A need for approval. Almost as much as your need to be a total a-hole to those you disagree with or whom you think aren't masters of the game like you think you are with your FAT CHARTS. Although I will admit, you have been much better lately, so I have to give you credit there.

And I couldn't care less about Green Gratto (another reminder). It's not like I haven't posted $100+ horses before in graded stakes races (Take Charge Brandi anyone? ). But the question seems to always come up about my current ROI so I cut it off at the pass now.

But even a casual viewer of this website over the years must admit there have been LOTS of people who would often make the snide comment that you can't win with software or speed figures alone (and ALONE is the key word here). Speed figs can't tell you this or they can't tell you that. A computer can't tell you about this subtly bad trip or that a jockey looked like he purposefully wasn't out there to win, etc. etc.

And no, I wasn't targeting anyone...it's happened often enough over 18 years (another boast - my website's longevity) from many different sources.

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Old 05-13-2017, 12:23 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 View Post
I keep hearing this "you HAVE to watch replays, etc" stuff and I'm tying to figure out who said it? Who said you can't win using speed figures only?
Lots of people on here over the years. I should know. I bristled every time I would read it.
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:27 PM   #13
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Maybe not in precisely those words, but it sounded like a rebuttal intended largely for one of your recently departed good pals.
If you're speaking of EMD, he wasn't the only one it was intended for...there have been a lot of people over the years who would butt heads with people who were claiming the virtues of software programs and figures.
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:36 PM   #14
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Pace this is my basic approach and what you lose in in depth knowledge you make up for in quantity and location. Instead of squeezing blood from the turnip, you just get a dozen turnips. This was the key to my big revelation in 2015 that turned my frustration to gold. There are overlays from sea to shining sea! Looking at more races from all over the place, you don't force close calls. I do a revised and basic ABC 1-2-3 oddsline, bet whichever of my top 2 choices are overlaid or both if such and move on if they are both 3-1 or less. That's it. Plus accessing smaller tracks IMO are where you find a more steady diet of longshots. This year I am exactly 20 for 90 on 9-1 and up odds. Largely at places like Sam Houston, Will Rogers Downs, Mahoning Valley etc. And applying pedigree and specialized turf ratings to smaller turf courses can be magical! Anyway the horseplaying world seems and is opened up as a whole when approaching the game in this manner. Good stuff!

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Old 05-13-2017, 12:39 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Oh, there's definitely some serious braggadocio happening on my end. A need for approval. Almost as much as your need to be a total a-hole to those you disagree with or whom you think aren't masters of the game like you think you are with your FAT CHARTS. Although I will admit, you have been much better lately, so I have to give you credit there.

And I couldn't care less about Green Gratto (another reminder). It's not like I haven't posted $100+ horses before in graded stakes races (Take Charge Brandi anyone? ). But the question seems to always come up about my current ROI so I cut it off at the pass now.

But even a casual viewer of this website over the years must admit there have been LOTS of people who would often make the snide comment that you can't win with software or speed figures alone (and ALONE is the key word here). Speed figs can't tell you this or they can't tell you that. A computer can't tell you about this subtly bad trip or that a jockey looked like he purposefully wasn't out there to win, etc. etc.

And no, I wasn't targeting anyone...it's happened often enough over 18 years (another boast - my website's longevity) from many different sources.
Just for verification purposes do a search and see how many times you've mentioned Green Grotto in threads other than the original one. Thinks it's more than zero?

I don't buy the rest of your argument. Figures dominate the game and any exchange about it.
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