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View Poll Results: Which closer do you think is best?
Gunnevera 46 46.94%
McCraken 15 15.31%
Hence 15 15.31%
Lookin at Lee 10 10.20%
Sonneteer 8 8.16%
Untrapped 0 0%
Tapwrit 3 3.06%
J Boys Echo 1 1.02%
Voters: 98. Non-members may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-02-2017, 03:49 PM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
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Best Closer?

Figured Id start a poll as in the Closer you expect to finish the best.
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Old 05-02-2017, 09:38 PM   #2
boys at tosconova
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back of the pack closers have little shot in the derby. i don't even need to throw out names. these types rarely finish 1st or 2nd.

what i find important is finding the strongest closer that's in the best position. one of them might be in the 10/13 spot early.

regardless of how strong gunny might be. i just can't see him overcoming his style of racing in such a big feld, being virtually last. same goes for LaL. i don't give sonny any chance as well

but there's a couple in that list that might utilize their natural speed for position
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Old 05-02-2017, 09:52 PM   #3
jettroofer
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Wasn't Exagerator a deep closer? He was in 15th place 17 lengths back at 1C last year, 8th place 9 lengths back at 2C, and closed into a 2nd place finish.
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Old 05-02-2017, 10:50 PM   #4
boys at tosconova
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Originally Posted by jettroofer View Post
Wasn't Exagerator a deep closer? He was in 15th place 17 lengths back at 1C last year, 8th place 9 lengths back at 2C, and closed into a 2nd place finish.
obv it can happen. but it doesn't happen often and the last 2 times it did was unusual circumstances. the first was a compromised pace and last year was an awful derby on many levels. where the fav's were standout from the rest

Last edited by cj; 05-02-2017 at 11:52 PM. Reason: Delete quote of deleted post.
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Old 05-03-2017, 12:15 AM   #5
Lemon Drop Husker
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
obv it can happen. but it doesn't happen often and the last 2 times it did was unusual circumstances. the first was a compromised pace and last year was an awful derby on many levels. where the fav's were standout from the rest
Closers have won 8 of the last 15 Derby's. Not finish in the money, not finish 4th or 5th, but WIN.

Not sure why this whole myth exists that closers can't/don't win in the Kentucky Derby.

2002: Monarchos
2005: Giacomo
2007: Street Sense
2008: Big Brown
2009: Mine That Bird
2011: Animal Kingdom
2012: I'll Have Another
2013: Orb

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 05-03-2017 at 12:18 AM.
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Old 05-03-2017, 01:03 AM   #6
boys at tosconova
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Closers have won 8 of the last 15 Derby's. Not finish in the money, not finish 4th or 5th, but WIN.

Not sure why this whole myth exists that closers can't/don't win in the Kentucky Derby.

2002: Monarchos
2005: Giacomo
2007: Street Sense
2008: Big Brown
2009: Mine That Bird
2011: Animal Kingdom
2012: I'll Have Another
2013: Orb
c'mon....you know what i mean. i made a whole big thread about with charts examining positioning and finishing. i'm not even going to poke holes in several of those horses which don't even fit the parameters or even debate the stance.

if you want to think otherwise because of mine that bird, just be prepared for the worst playing those horses that will be 15> for most of the race. and in every KD there seems to be 5-8 closer types that appeal to some.

if this race had speed bunnies and spanish chestnut i would give them more of a chance. but it seems as if those days and derby's are gone
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Old 05-03-2017, 01:10 AM   #7
Lemon Drop Husker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
c'mon....you know what i mean. i made a whole big thread about with charts examining positioning and finishing. i'm not even going to poke holes in several of those horses which don't even fit the parameters or even debate the stance.

if you want to think otherwise because of mine that bird, just be prepared for the worst playing those horses that will be 15> for most of the race. and in every KD there seems to be 5-8 closer types that appeal to some.

if this race had speed bunnies and spanish chestnut i would give them more of a chance. but it seems as if those days and derby's are gone
This race has 9 E6 or E/P 6 or above horses that will go to the gate. Feel free to bet all 9 of them.

Make sure to wager Always Dreaming as your lock to win.

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 05-03-2017 at 01:15 AM.
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Old 05-03-2017, 01:41 AM   #8
boys at tosconova
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
This race has 9 E6 or E/P 6 or above horses that will go to the gate. Feel free to bet all 9 of them.

Make sure to wager Always Dreaming as your lock to win.
i don't put much credence in : e, or l's...those num's are not very valuable imo. all i need to look at are vids, fractions and final time as it pertains to the scope of each racer. not numbers placed on intervals.

and always dreaming rates a strong figure. have to use him as well.

but that won't stop me from playing a couple of horses that will pay big with him/iwc should they lose.

object is to win. not complain if an iwc and ad exacta come outs and only pays 40 bucks.
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Old 05-03-2017, 01:57 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by jettroofer View Post
Wasn't Exagerator a deep closer? He was in 15th place 17 lengths back at 1C last year, 8th place 9 lengths back at 2C, and closed into a 2nd place finish.
And Suddenbreakingnews just missed 3rd by a head after being even further back early than Exaggerator last year. Commanding Curve had 1 horse beat in the early running of the 2014 Derby and he also rallied for 2nd. 2013 had the pace meltdown where all three top 3 finishers came from way back. Went the Day Well just missed 2nd by a length after sitting back in 17th early in the 2012 Derby. Ice Box rallied from 19th to finish 2nd in 2010. Mine That Bird in 2009. Dennis of Cork was sitting dead last and finished 3rd in 2008. Street Sense in 2007. Etc., etc. These deep closing types can certainly do okay in the Derby.
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Old 05-03-2017, 12:10 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Closers have won 8 of the last 15 Derby's. Not finish in the money, not finish 4th or 5th, but WIN.

Not sure why this whole myth exists that closers can't/don't win in the Kentucky Derby.

2002: Monarchos
2005: Giacomo
2007: Street Sense
2008: Big Brown
2009: Mine That Bird
2011: Animal Kingdom
2012: I'll Have Another
2013: Orb
I agree 100% with you. Going back further in time, Unbridled, Ferdinand (and from the 1 post) and Gato Del Sol. I thought Sea Hero and Grindstone came from fairly far back as well.
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Old 05-03-2017, 12:12 PM   #11
Valuist
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Figured Id start a poll as in the Closer you expect to finish the best.
I'd have to think Practical Joke is a better closer than most of the horses listed in the poll.
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Old 05-03-2017, 12:22 PM   #12
PowerUpPaynter
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I'd have to think Practical Joke is a better closer than most of the horses listed in the poll.
isnt he kinda more a mid pack tho?
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Old 05-03-2017, 12:54 PM   #13
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isnt he kinda more a mid pack tho?
Anything over 10 lengths out is a deep closer, IMO.
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Old 05-03-2017, 04:09 PM   #14
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Master Plan if he draws in...
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Old 05-04-2017, 03:06 AM   #15
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McCraken... since i wont be on here till after derby .... that's my official pick to win! i'm heading to CD in the morning .. good luck all
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Which information is more valuable in handicapping the derby?
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