Is it harder or easier to win than it used to be?

[Imriledup]

For you handicappers who have been at this for over 10 years, do you feel that its getting easier to win or harder to win and why.

[Overlay]

I'd say that the information now available makes it easier to find the horse that's most likely to finish first in a race from a "handicapping" standpoint (which to me is not really handicapping, but just "picking winners"). But it's harder to come out ahead from a betting standpoint, unless you take winning probability and betting value into account -- not just with respect to the most likely winner, but considering all the horses in a field.

[peakpros]

easier....

partly due to the fact fact I have better info and figs...

and partly due to being more mature and much more patient...

I know my strengths and weaknesses...and I bet accordingly.

[cmoore]

Easier...Information and also what PeakPros said...know your strengths and focus on that part of the game...

[raybo]

With quality data availability being much better now than years ago it is easier to project order of finish but it has become more difficult to show a positive ROI. Factors that worked in the past, more often than not, don't work as well today because those factors have become overbet resulting in lower payouts regarding those factors.

Value betting has become essential to producing a positive ROI. By value, I mean wagering on horses that have been underbet, regarding their success probability, by the public. Or value could mean migrating from win, place, show betting to the exotics.

Some can still produce a positive ROI with time honored methods simply by churning, wagering on many tracks per day and accepting extremely small average payouts, compared to what they could have received several years ago. Internet wagering and advanced handicapping software that speeds up the handicapping process have made this possible.

[Bobzilla]

Been a fan of the sport since the golden seventies, a serious player since the late eighties. I believe there was much more dead money in the pools during my first ten years. The typical player today has a degree of sophistication markedly higher than those who constituted a majority of the action twenty or even ten years ago. Helpful information to the player is universally available and meaningfully parsed via database/internet technologies. With that said, I believe the typical player of today will enjoy more hits than his predecessors of yesteryear, though paradoxically the ability to acquire an edge has diminished, which combined with the depressive forces of higher takeout makes the game in the long run more difficult to beat. The ability to manage one's bankroll and recognize value are all the more important.

[lamboguy]

i think its alot harder. even if you get a large rebate, i think the bet after the bell hurts you. if your horse breaks bad the price goes up, if he breaks good it goes down. it happens every single time. if they would close the pools down, and not allow access into them 2 minutes before the bell goes off, i would rebate the track 5% instead of getting one and come out way ahead.

[rastajenk]

Oh, brother. What nonsense.

[ryesteve]

I'm going to say harder, because the money in the pools is smarter than it used to be. Not only is it smarter, it has more leverage. Someone who's getting an 8-12% rebate can afford to bet enough to turn profitable situations into breakeven or -5% situations (pre-rebate) which kills the edge that a like-minded small player used to have.

[jonnielu]

It is much harder when you bring the 70's perspective to the modern game. The modern game differs in ways that a change of perspective is well beyond called for.

For the 70's player that is able to tune in to the changes in the modern game, and adapt, picking winners is much simpler. And, is best done in simple ways. Mostly because the consistencies of horse racing haven't changed at all.

This is clearly evidenced by the results of handicapping contests, where quite often the best past performance handicappers regularly fall to the better shot takers.

jdl

[kenwoodallpromos]

I find it easier as I incorporate more info and factors into my handicapping.
Meanwhile, mainly just the horses' names and the track speed/conditions change.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

The modern game differs in ways that a change of perspective is well beyond called for. Mostly because the consistencies of horse racing haven't changed at all

Interesting...

[peakpros]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i think its alot harder. even if you get a large rebate, i think the bet after the bell hurts you. if your horse breaks bad the price goes up, if he breaks good it goes down. it happens every single time. if they would close the pools down, and not allow access into them 2 minutes before the bell goes off, i would rebate the track 5% instead of getting one and come out way ahead.

well said about the late money

[classhandicapper]

I'm a much better handicapper and have much better information, but it's tougher. If I knew 15 years ago what I know now, I would have had a much easier time winning.

[cnollfan]

I think it's the same. Of course, if we knew then what we know now it would be easy to kill them then, but that's true about life in general.

It's still a zero-sum game (minus the track take). As certain handicapping styles and factors come into fashion, those horses pay less than they would have previously. Meanwhile, other methods, also valid, fall out of fashion, and those horses pay more than they used to.