My Official Derby Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

Not that we need another opinion on this race, but it is my site, and I guess I should let my opinion about the Derby be known......however wrong it may turn out to be....

First off, Sinister Minister has zero shot to hit the board, let alone win. If he finishes better than 9th, I'd be shocked. If ever there was a horse labeled a "contender" more unsuited to get 10f at Churchill Downs, I don't know who it might be. This guy has one of the worst late figs in the field, and there is no doubt he will be part of a hot pace. Total toss for me.

Main Contenders (in no particular order):

The other horse coming into this race off a "monster" win, Sweetnorthernsaint, is quite intriguing. He's the only horse in the race who consistently seems to get faster from the middle to the end of the race. For you Sartin fans, I used both his Illinois Derby and Gotham pacelines, and see his F2=53.16 and his F3=53.57 Very unusual, and probably quite beneficial in a race such as this. He's got a big shot.

Barbaro along with Brother Derek are the two biggest threats (no surprise there). I think Barbaro is the better of the two, and may offer a better price. If it weren't for the constant press thrown at his trainer, Michael Matz, his price would probably be a lot bigger come Derby day. After all, he only won the Florida Derby by a 1/2 length, and his 103 Beyer fig is certainly not a standout in this field. Anything over his morning line is value. Barbaro is the only horse in the race with a quality turn time that also backs it up with a solid final fraction time. He'll be making his move at the right time and have enough left late. The trip for him will be the key.

Speaking of trips, Brother Derek certainly has been getting plenty of good ones lately, against short California fields. No doubt he has the talent and has every right to be the favorite, but do you really want to back a favorite in a 20 horse field who

1. probably will be about 5 lengths off the early pace
2. suffered his only two career losses when more than 1/2 length out of it at the first call
3. is breaking from the 18 post.

When one considers point #3 in light of points #1 and #2, one wonders how Alex Solis is going to conjure up another dreamy trip for Brother Derek.

Sharp Humor is my "PaceAdvantage.Com Longshot" And why not? He only finished 1/2 length behind one of my major contenders, Barbaro, and he's going to get lost in the betting shuffle, and may end up 25-1. Probably the best value play of the field. The only reason he isn't my top pick is because he is much more vulnerable to getting cooked on the front end, as he has shown nothing but an affinity to battle early. If Guidry can get this boy to rate, look out.

Other horses with a chance to fill out the exotics: Point Determined (great running style for this race, but perhaps a tad too slow compared to the main contenders), Bluegrass Cat (throw out the Blue Grass, ironically, and you have yourself a possible sleeper), Deputy Glitters & Jazil (these two WILL be there late, but traffic and too much ground to make up may take its toll).

One other horse getting a lot of play from the "wiseguys" is A.P. Warrior, and I for one just don't get it. Yes, he's got the Derby winning trainer from last year, and yes he's sired by A.P. Indy, but seriously, where has he shown ANYWHERE that he wants to go a mile and a quarter? In every one of his last FOUR races he has lost ground late. In seven of his eight lifetime races, he has failed to register above 51fps in the final fraction (another Sartin velocity reference). There are too many other quality closers in the race to seriously think A.P. Warrior is the one to beat late. Yes, he has very good turn time, but that won't help much during the final eighth....

What about Lawyer Ron you ask? Too slow. Period. The underlay of the day. 14 races under his belt coming into the Kentucky Derby, and racing EVERY MONTH since August of 2005. If this horse were trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the ASPCA would have to hire additional help just to handle all the complaints they'd be getting. Selling a majority interest in him BEFORE the Derby was a shrewd move. He reminds me of a male version of Meadow Star.

So, enough of my prognostications. Bottom line, here are my picks for Derby 132:

1. Barbaro
2. Brother Derek
3. Sweetnorthernsaint
4. Sharp Humor

[JPinMaryland]

Not bad. But give me one reason to keep Bluegrass cat in my exotics.

[kingfin66]

I found your analysis both well thought out and well written. I also agree with much of what you said, but have a few points and questions.

First, just as you say that if one likes Barbaro they should also like Sharp Humor, so too should people who like Point Determined also support A.P Warrior. They have very similar talent levels. One thing about the Sharp Humor/Barbaro pairing. You have that whole Florida Derby 5-week thing to deal with. There may or may not be validity to it, but I don't expect both of those horses to hit the board. I agree with Barbaro being top notch and will take the position, as you seemingly have, that Sharp Humor either can't get 1-1/4 or will be hurt by the pace, or both.

Why throw out Bluegrasscat's BlueGrass Stakes? It does not look as though he had an excuse. Personally, I don't think it matters what race is used, he comes up short. Neither of the Tampa runners fared well once they took on stiffer competition. I feel comfortable tossing both Bluegrasscat and Deputy Glitters.

I believe you are dead on about Brother Derek. I really like this horse and was convinced that he was going to win the Derby. The 18 hole is a lot to overcome even for a great horse, which I think he is even if others do not.

Lawyer Ron - too slow period. Isn't that something, a horse has six straight wins, is the one of the favorites to win the race, and you call him too slow? Once again, I am in agreement and consider him a toss.

I can't find the quality closers in the race. I don't think much of Jazil or Steppenwolfer as closers in this race. Steppenwolfer reminds me of Borrego (my total bust of a Derby horse from 2 yrs ago), while Jazil closed into leaders that looked like they were going to drop dead on the track in the Wood. Both of those also get buried on the rail ensuring that they will have a long way to come if they want to achieve glory. One interesting closer is the Hollendorfer/Baze runner Cause to Believe. He has shown that he can close on the California tracks which are not known for closers. I will cut him slack for the Illinois Derby performance due to the slower than normal (for him) pace.

I see this Derby being won in a similary fashion as Smarty Jones/Funny Cide. A horse will need to be near (within 4-5 lengths of the lead) to have a shot, then pounce.

I too like Sweetnorthernsaint and will likely key him in a trifecta with Bro D, Barbaro, Cause to Believe, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior and two others, for a total of 7. One note about 'Saint. I think he will actually run a little bit more like a closer than he has shown. His demonstrated ability to rate will serve him well and his lack of exceptional speed will put him midpack - not a bad place to be in this field. He can then use that middle and late energy to cruise to victory.

Good luck on Saturday, and once again, thanks for an insightful analysis.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

Not bad. But give me one reason to keep Bluegrass cat in my exotics.

To me, his speed figures scream of a horse ready to run a new high. Plus he has shown the ability to rate, and his late numbers aren't all that bad. Don't forget the monster price.

I've given you 4 reasons....dang!

(This all assumes his last race is an aberration)

[JPinMaryland]

what is he supposed to be a stalker? front runner? E/P? weird.

[DrugSalvastore]

A. P. Warrior is the horse I will be betting in this years Kentucky Derby. Sweetnorthernsaint is the horse I fear most. I think it is a race that anyone of ten different horses can run 3rd---but I see AP War and SNS as the big two.

As for the KY Oaks---no need to get real fancy with my exotics in that one. Balance over Wonder Lady Anne L. and cold.

Oaks-Derby Double: Balance and Wonder Lady Anne L. OVER AP WAR and SNS

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

what is he supposed to be a stalker? front runner? E/P? weird.

I don't understand the question. It's pretty obvious what Bluegrass Cat's running style is, isn't it?

I'm not sure why there is so much focus on Bluegrass Cat. I merely mentioned the colt as a possible fill for trifectas and superfectas. And it's not like he's a bad horse. He threw in a bit of a clunker last time, but then again, Sinister Minister went all freaky on us, and I firmly believe SM has absolutely no shot to win. Bluegrass Cat will be a monster price, and has a very real shot at hitting the board. That's all I'm saying.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore

A. P. Warrior is the horse I will be betting in this years Kentucky Derby.

Really? I don't see it at all. You're in good company though, I suppose. AP is Beyer's pick as well as Grening's and Litfin's.

Lightning isn't going to strike twice for Shirreffs, and anyone who thinks this horse is a powerful late threat is deluding themselves. The pace numbers just don't support this contention.

[OTM Al]

A.P. Warrior is on nearly everyone's picks in the DRF and like you PA I just don't get it either. The more I look at him the more I see a horse that is quitting down the lane. He lost ground in every single race that he did not have P Val on his back. Even if he is up near the leaders coming home, I expect him to be getting passed early and often. He won't be on my tickets and he is the wiseguy horse of this Derby without question

[rrpic6]

Not that we need another opinion on this race, but it is my site, and I guess I should let my opinion about the Derby be known......however wrong it may turn out to be....

First off, Sinister Minister has zero shot to hit the board, let alone win. If he finishes better than 9th, I'd be shocked. If ever there was a horse labeled a "contender" more unsuited to get 10f at Churchill Downs, I don't know who it might be. This guy has one of the worst late figs in the field, and there is no doubt he will be part of a hot pace. Total toss for me.

Main Contenders (in no particular order):

The other horse coming into this race off a "monster" win, Sweetnorthernsaint, is quite intriguing. He's the only horse in the race who consistently seems to get faster from the middle to the end of the race. For you Sartin fans, I used both his Illinois Derby and Gotham pacelines, and see his F2=53.16 and his F3=53.57 Very unusual, and probably quite beneficial in a race such as this. He's got a big shot.

Barbaro along with Brother Derek are the two biggest threats (no surprise there). I think Barbaro is the better of the two, and may offer a better price. If it weren't for the constant press thrown at his trainer, Michael Matz, his price would probably be a lot bigger come Derby day. After all, he only won the Florida Derby by a 1/2 length, and his 103 Beyer fig is certainly not a standout in this field. Anything over his morning line is value. Barbaro is the only horse in the race with a quality turn time that also backs it up with a solid final fraction time. He'll be making his move at the right time and have enough left late. The trip for him will be the key.

Speaking of trips, Brother Derek certainly has been getting plenty of good ones lately, against short California fields. No doubt he has the talent and has every right to be the favorite, but do you really want to back a favorite in a 20 horse field who

1. probably will be about 5 lengths off the early pace
2. suffered his only two career losses when more than 1/2 length out of it at the first call
3. is breaking from the 18 post.

When one considers point #3 in light of points #1 and #2, one wonders how Alex Solis is going to conjure up another dreamy trip for Brother Derek.

Sharp Humor is my "PaceAdvantage.Com Longshot" And why not? He only finished 1/2 length behind one of my major contenders, Barbaro, and he's going to get lost in the betting shuffle, and may end up 25-1. Probably the best value play of the field. The only reason he isn't my top pick is because he is much more vulnerable to getting cooked on the front end, as he has shown nothing but an affinity to battle early. If Guidry can get this boy to rate, look out.

Other horses with a chance to fill out the exotics: Point Determined (great running style for this race, but perhaps a tad too slow compared to the main contenders), Bluegrass Cat (throw out the Blue Grass, ironically, and you have yourself a possible sleeper), Deputy Glitters & Jazil (these two WILL be there late, but traffic and too much ground to make up may take its toll).

One other horse getting a lot of play from the "wiseguys" is A.P. Warrior, and I for one just don't get it. Yes, he's got the Derby winning trainer from last year, and yes he's sired by A.P. Indy, but seriously, where has he shown ANYWHERE that he wants to go a mile and a quarter? In every one of his last FOUR races he has lost ground late. In seven of his eight lifetime races, he has failed to register above 51fps in the final fraction (another Sartin velocity reference). There are too many other quality closers in the race to seriously think A.P. Warrior is the one to beat late. Yes, he has very good turn time, but that won't help much during the final eighth....

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What about Lawyer Ron you ask? Too slow. Period. The underlay of the day. 14 races under his belt coming into the Kentucky Derby, and racing EVERY MONTH since August of 2005. If this horse were trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the ASPCA would have to hire additional help just to handle all the complaints they'd be getting. Selling a majority interest in him BEFORE the Derby was a shrewd move. He reminds me of a male version of Meadow Star.

So, enough of my prognostications. Bottom line, here are my picks for Derby 132:

1. Barbaro
2. Brother Derek
3. Sweetnorthernsaint
4. Sharp Humor

Selling Lawyer Ron before the Derby has nothing to do with being shrewd. Since the untimely death of James Hines, his family is in the process of downsizing their racing interests. If he's alive, he keeps everything the same. Lawyer Ron has won 6 straight on dirt, yet he's being dissed because of his average speed figures. He's been winning very professionally and efficiently. This will come in handy when 150,000 people are screaming when the horses turn for home. Al Davis said "just win baby", and that's what Lawyer Ron likes to do. Plus you gotta love his name, I sure do.

[chrisg]

I like your analysis PA; thanks for posting that.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

Selling Lawyer Ron before the Derby has nothing to do with being shrewd. Since the untimely death of James Hines, his family is in the process of downsizing their racing interests. If he's alive, he keeps everything the same. Lawyer Ron has won 6 straight on dirt, yet he's being dissed because of his average speed figures. He's been winning very professionally and efficiently. This will come in handy when 150,000 people are screaming when the horses turn for home. Al Davis said "just win baby", and that's what Lawyer Ron likes to do. Plus you gotta love his name, I sure do.

I'm flattered you quoted my entire post.

With that said, I have nothing personal against the horse or want to make light of the situation the family is facing since the death of James Hines. However, that isn't going to change my objective opinion about the horse. He's too slow, and unless something miraculous occurs Saturday, he's up the track.

Regardless of the family's intentions, it's still a shrewd move. They are getting maximum value for the horse by selling him prior to his more than likely failed Derby attempt.

[Turntime]

On A.P. Warrior:

Watching the replay of the San Felipe I get the impression that he's anything but a quitter. He accelerated nicely in the 4 path going into the turn past a well placed Point Determined, then recharged inside the 1/16 pole when hooked by that one (it appeared, as they say, that they could have gone around again and he wouldn't get caught). He won't be forced into a watchdog role as he was in the SA Derby (I believe the plan is to sit around 10th early) and his push button acceleration may help him make the winning move if the speed collapses as predicted.

The fact that so many 'experts' are picking him does not sit well, but otherwise I think he gets the 1 1/4 mile distance and is a big threat to hit the board.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Turntime

On A.P. Warrior:

Watching the replay of the San Felipe I get the impression that he's anything but a quitter. He accelerated nicely in the 4 path going into the turn past a well placed Point Determined, then recharged inside the 1/16 pole when hooked by that one (it appeared, as they say, that they could have gone around again and he wouldn't get caught).

Oh yes, A.P. Warrior has excellent turn time, so I'm not surprised with your visual description above. It's his final fraction number that worries the hell out of me. I guess we'll see how it plays out tomorrow....

[Turntime]

PA:

Agreed. Since I have a $300 future bet at 22-1, I'm hoping he can redistribute some of that turn energy to later in the race.