you do realize that half the field wants to be last early on.

[boys at tosconova]

okay,....maybe that's a little more emphasis and nudge one way than true/needed. but to say they want to come from behind is an understatement...whether is from 15-20th spot it's almost all the same

i can't remember ever seeing this many of these types in the KD w/ a fighters chance to hit the board.

i would not be surprised to see some horses walk out of the gate just so they don't get messed up

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

okay,....maybe that's a little more emphasis and nudge one way than true/needed. but to say they want to come from behind is an understatement...whether is from 15-20th spot it's almost all the same

i can't remember ever seeing this many of these types in the KD w/ a fighters chance to hit the board.

i would not be surprised to see some horses walk out of the gate just so they don't get messed up

I count 11 horses who will not be close to the lead early. 1 need the leader. Wouldn't be surprised if they run 123, 321, 142, 152, 512 etc.

Lining up 20 15, 15 20 and then the stalkers. Don't see a hot pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

I see Danzig & Nyquist right behind him. I don't see Outwork too far behind or even ahead of Nyquist.

Closers on the inside & pace setters on the outside, will be a fun race!

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I see Danzig & Nyquist right behind him. I don't see Outwork too far behind or even ahead of Nyquist.

Closers on the inside & pace setters on the outside, will be a fun race!

i mean,..lol the horse 11th at the 1/4 will prolly be too close for their liking

that is unless we're talking huge gaps and/or divisions

[dballard125]

Great thread. I see the race playing out one of two ways.

Option 1:

- DC runs out to the lead.
- Outwork settles in somewhere a length or two off.
- Nyquist settles in a length or two behind Outwork.
- A pack that includes Destin, GR, Whitmore, Toms Ready, Lani, Mohaymen, Shagaf, and Mor Spirit right behind.
- Then the closers spread out at the back.

They run semi-moderate fractions.
Outwork takes first run at DC and gets a head in front on the far turn.
Nyquist waits a split second and then goes with him.
The mid pack stalkers and closers then start their runs.
Nyquist puts a head in front of Outwork in the stretch and wins.
Outwork runs on gamely and stays up for 2nd or 3rd.
One of the mid pack stalkers gets past Outwork for 2nd, or runs 3rd.
One of the closers fills out the super.

Something like Nyquist, Outwork, Gun Runner, SBN/Brody/Mo Tom/MMS

Option 2:

DC sets a quick pace.
Outwork can't help himself and chases closely.
Both fade late.
Nyquist falters in the stretch, but still runs in the money.
A bomb stalker or closer gets up to win.

Something like Gun Runner, Nyquist, SBN/Brody/Mo Tom/MMS, SBN/Brody/Mo Tom/MMS

[AlBundy33]

For whatever reason, this year's Derby reminds me of the 2002 Derby where no one wanted the lead......with Danzing Candy being the exception starting from the concession stands.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by AlBundy33

For whatever reason, this year's Derby reminds me of the 2002 Derby where no one wanted the lead......with Danzing Candy being the exception starting from the concession stands.

Sidneys Candy was pure speed, way faster than Danzig Candy, he came out of post #20 in 2010, finished 17th by 54 1/2 lengths

[Redboard]

Another thing to consider is what happens if Laoban joins the fray. As of now, there’s only two speedballs, but having another one crash in from the outside has got to screw up Outwork’s chances. I can see Outwork letting Danzig Candy pass him, but not both of them.
It seems like there always is a late scratch every year, which is why they have the alternates these days.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Another thing to consider is what happens if Laoban joins the fray. As of now, there’s only two speedballs, but having another one crash in from the outside has got to screw up Outwork’s chances. I can see Outwork letting Danzig Candy pass him, but not both of them.
It seems like there always is a late scratch every year, which is why they have the alternates these days.

I love everything you are saying.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I love everything you are saying.

Good closer trifecta box Creator, Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Sidneys Candy was pure speed, way faster than Danzig Candy, he came out of post #20 in 2010, finished 17th by 54 1/2 lengths

That's because Sidney's Candy didn't make the lead. Speed horses need the lead, otherwise they quit.

[fiznow]

Maybe this sounds strange. But if nobody wants the lead would't it be a wise tactic to do excactly that, to go to the lead? Somehow I wouldn't wonder if they tried that with Nyquist. He has won the Florida Derby wire to wire too. However, I still think Majesto will get him in the finish.

[Redboard]

Here's the bris running style ratings, from stone deep closer(S0) to speed of the speed (E8). These seem to agree with dballard125 Option1 analysis except for Whitmore & Tom's Ready who Bris believes will be with closers at the back. I think Lani belongs to the S0 group based on his last race where he came way from behind.

PP-HORSE Running Style
8-Lani N/A
10-Whitmore S0
2-Suddenbreakingnews S0
3-Creator S0
19-Brody's Cause S0
4-Mo Tom S0
6-My Man Sam S0
22-Cherry Wine S0
12-Tom's Ready S1
1-Trojan Nation S3
17-Mor Spirit P3
18-Majesto P3
11-Exaggerator P3
5-Gun Runner P4
7-Oscar Nominated P5
9-Destin E/P4
16-Shagaf E/P4
13-Nyquist E/P5
14-Mohaymen E/P6
21-Laoban E6
15-Outwork E8
20-Danzing Candy E8


From brisnet.com:

[ E] A winner exhibiting a typical 'E' (or Early) run style would show the horse leading or battling for the lead through the duration of the race. An 'E' horse is any horse which typically vies for the early lead or whose better races are run on the lead. Most 'E' horses are need·the·lead types which can not reasonably be expected to successfully rate behind a pacesetter.

[ E/P] A winner exhibiting a typical 'E/P' (or Early/Presser) run style would show the horse running 2nd or 3rd and within a few lengths early before making the winning move. A 'E/P' horse, like an 'E' horse , may also run on the frontend. However, unlike an 'E' horse, it can reasonably be expected to successfully lay just behind a pacesetter.

[ P ] A winner exhibiting a typical 'P' (or Presser) run style would show the horse running in the middle·of·the·pack early before making his winning move. A 'P' horse may at times run close to the pace but rarely, if ever, challenges for the lead early. Unlike a'S' horse, the 'P' horse doesn't typically run from the rear-of·the·pack in it's better races.

[ S ] A winner exhibiting a typical 'S' ISustain or Closer) run style would show the horse running in the back·of·the·pack early before making his late winning move.

[ NA] A 'NA' or Not Available) run style is used for first-time-starters and those horses without any meaningful running lines to accurately assess the horse's preferred run style.

[ Early Speed Points] Ranging from a low of 0 points to a high of 8 points, this measures the Early Speed ability of the horse based upon its running position and beaten lengths at the 1 st Call in recent races at today's distance. The higher the points, the more early speed the horse has shown in recent races. The Early Speed points are displayed in the past performances after the horse name and in parenthesis alongside BRIS Run Style -
e.g. (P7).

[ten2oneormore]

I think several of the horses who appear to be take back- one run closers are capable of getting more involved early . Given most of these jocks are the best there are they will most likely come to the conclusion that this is the best option. Not pressing the leaders by any means but midpack instead of almost last.

Suddenbreakingnews , Mo Tom , Creator , Whitmore , Exaggerator all have the capabilities to be closer to the front than they have been. Plus given the nature of the derby other closers could decide to be in front of the dead closers which would put them more midpack.

[pele polo]

If something happens on the outside, such as Candy stumbling at the start of Outwork getting squeezed- Gun Runner could inherit the lead.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these "closers" much closer than anticipated such as :

My Man Sam, who began his career at 6f late last year or even Trojan Nation who has been close to the pace before and may need to scoot out early to avoid a bad trip.

Watch out for Oscar Nominated to try and spoil many peoples chances and try to get out early. This horse has never taken dirt in his face and I'm sure they don't want to discourage him too bad by taking loads of it in his first dirt trip. THEY HAVE BOTHING TO LOSE and that's scary to think about, like how they may compromise other's chances.