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04-30-2015, 06:34 PM
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#1
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Derby 2015: Shopping for some value
This year Derby will be one of the best since many years... I think that there are two longshots that might attract my betting dollar: Itsaknockout and Upstart ..
At this pint I have not done the undercard, but there might be some interesting horizontal bets, leading to some big scores..
Read my detailed analysis here:
http://www.themindofagambler.com/201...ky-derby-2015/
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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04-30-2015, 07:43 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 91
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
This year Derby will be one of the best since many years... I think that there are two longshots that might attract my betting dollar: Itsaknockout and Upstart ..
At this pint I have not done the undercard, but there might be some interesting horizontal bets, leading to some big scores..
Read my detailed analysis here:
http://www.themindofagambler.com/201...ky-derby-2015/ |
Don't forget about Frosted.
Can't remember where I read but he's the only one, according to this number cruncher, who has no red flags at all in the three most important categories.
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What is clear enough is that the Federal Reserve was established to remove the Constitution as the controlling agency in national monetary policy and to guarantee, instead, that certain special interest groups were disproportionately, in fact monopolistically represented in determining that policy, for the special benefit of those groups and at everybody else's expense.
- Dr. Edwin J. Vieira, Jr.
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04-30-2015, 09:49 PM
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#3
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RoyalHeroine
Don't forget about Frosted.
Can't remember where I read but he's the only one, according to this number cruncher, who has no red flags at all in the three most important categories.
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He's a horse. Check.
Has all 4 legs in working order. Check.
Is in The Derby. Check.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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04-30-2015, 10:09 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 873
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
This year Derby will be one of the best since many years... I think that there are two longshots that might attract my betting dollar: Itsaknockout and Upstart ..
At this pint I have not done the undercard, but there might be some interesting horizontal bets, leading to some big scores..
Read my detailed analysis here:
http://www.themindofagambler.com/201...ky-derby-2015/ |
Upstart might get bet. A lot of people like him.
To me it's pretty crazy how similar he is to last year's Violette/J Ortiz horse Samraat.
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Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.
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04-30-2015, 10:40 PM
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#5
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RoyalHeroine
Don't forget about Frosted.
Can't remember where I read but he's the only one, according to this number cruncher, who has no red flags at all in the three most important categories.
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Yeah! He ran huge in the Wood and if he repeats he probably can become a player..
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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04-30-2015, 10:51 PM
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#6
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ten2oneormore
Upstart might get bet. A lot of people like him.
To me it's pretty crazy how similar he is to last year's Violette/J Ortiz horse Samraat.
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I think you are right.. M/L has him @ 15-1 which is less than natural odds... I am not sure he is a bargain in this level... Let's see how the pool will evolve..
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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04-30-2015, 10:54 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
He's a horse. Check.
Has all 4 legs in working order. Check.
Is in The Derby. Check.
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What happens if he has a 5th leg?
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04-30-2015, 11:14 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
What happens if he has a 5th leg?
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Well Animal Kingdom didn't do so hot with it in his last race.
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04-30-2015, 11:19 PM
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#9
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
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Relying in the last race of the horse, is a very good way to end up with the same picks as the crowd.. You need to think a little bit more and be ready to forgive bad recent races, if you want to find some juicy prices...
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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04-30-2015, 11:30 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 315
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Since we're talking long shots I have to go with El Kabeir. 
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04-30-2015, 11:41 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 5
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by razorback5
Since we're talking long shots I have to go with El Kabeir. |
There we go! Good luck on Saturday. 
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05-01-2015, 07:43 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: toronto
Posts: 545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
He's a horse. Check.
Has all 4 legs in working order. Check.
Is in The Derby. Check.
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THANKS FOR THE LAUGH, GREAT START TO MY DAY 
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05-01-2015, 07:44 AM
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#13
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
What happens if he has a 5th leg?
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That's not a "leg". 
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-01-2015, 07:50 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: toronto
Posts: 545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by razorback5
Since we're talking long shots I have to go with El Kabeir. |
I REALLY LIKE HIM. HE WILL BE CHARGING!!!!!!!!!
Was a speed horse. Very successfully reversed style to come from behind and has shown he can be patient. The BIG question is does he flatten out in the last eighth against these? The good news is you will get paid if your right.
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