My Official Derby Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Turntime

PA:

Agreed. Since I have a $300 future bet at 22-1, I'm hoping he can redistribute some of that turn energy to later in the race.

22-1 probably isn't a bad price considering all the play this horse has been getting in the DRF....hell, he's the top Consensus selection!

[Bruddah]

This race screams "TOTAL MELTDOWN" and "Puking the Bit" after 9f. Not just because of the pace, but the Prep races scream it, as well. There is only one horse in the race, which has signaled, they are capable of the Ky Derby distance and pressure. As for me, I am going with Jazil. His final 1/4 times in the Wood and FOY, both a fast and sloppy surface are 24.7 and 24.8, respectively. He also has the Raise A Native sire line, plus a preferred running style. (JMHO) and Good Luck to all.

[NYPlayer]

My analysis using Sheets (primarily).

Sweetnorthernsaint - Has some of the best numbers with no significant reactions to top efforts. Has shown balanced speed and off the pace style before. I expect a stalking trip will be employed.

Barbaro - A forward move seems imminent after breaking through slighty from 2yo top by a point (on Sheets). Trip should be from off the pace. Prime for exacta over and under.

Bob & John Excellent condition line (no bounces) and could make another forward move. Pacewise he likes to stay close, but he's shown he can race at close quarters and still win. Also has off the pace style. Exacta contender both sides.

Point Determined - Very Similar line to B&J. Obvious closer. Exacta contender.

Keyed Entry - Had two competitive tops, then bounced, but not too badly. Can rebound ro possilby make a new top. Marginal exacta contender but will include for a small piece a long price.

Key Throw outs

Sinister Minister - Huge effort last out. A big reaction seems certain, but could be setting the pace for most of the way.

Brother Derek - Has yet to eclipse his 2yo top, running style is typically close to the pace (tough if Sinister Minister and AP Warrior are on the pace and, especially difficult to get any kind of good trip from post 18.

[PaceAdvantage]

The more I look at SNS, the more I think this horse could be something really special. I think my money is going to be going on Barbaro and SNS, although it seems like SNS is getting a lot of early support in the betting.....

Forget about Sinister Minister being a freak, I think the real potential freak is Sweetnorthernsaint.

[Tom]

Wasn' he gelded just before that big win?
He looks to me to be the horse that is going to come out on top of this crop.
7-1 right now.....

[toetoe]

This year, for a change, I'm crazy about a horse, instead of looking at a bunch of plugs, trying to get 50/1 so as to justify playing him. 'Saint will be canonized.

[linrom1]

Private Vow They don't breed them like that anymore. Belmont is in the bag, and KY is just a prep race for Belmont. Two bookends of a Triple Crown at decent odds. $$$$$

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

This race screams "TOTAL MELTDOWN" and "Puking the Bit" after 9f. Not just because of the pace, but the Prep races scream it, as well.

This is the one feature of the race that seems entirely predictable. The rest of this affair is wildly up in the air, but I'll be very surprised if we don't see a sub-1:10 6f (assuming a relatively normal track speed).

I went through the last 40 Derbies and only one horse-- Spend A Buck-- won after running less than 1:10 2/5 to 6f.

[rrbauer]

PA writes:
"First off, Sinister Minister has zero shot to hit the board, let alone win. If he finishes better than 9th, I'd be shocked. If ever there was a horse labeled a "contender" more unsuited to get 10f at Churchill Downs, I don't know who it might be. This guy has one of the worst late figs in the field, and there is no doubt he will be part of a hot pace. Total toss for me."

Comment:
Watch the Bluegrass replay. Consider that GG was gearing him down after they passed the 1/8 pole. I don't know which "late fig" you're looking at. He and Sweetnorthernsaint both qualify for my "front-runner that closes" label and earn identical power figs from their respective last races. The most discouraging thing to me is that on Friday SM was being bet! These two are the only ones that do not need to improve to win!

For those that think there will be a big pace meltdown why would you leave out Jazil?

[Dave Schwartz]

Preliminary Contenders

I will revise this after scratches and track conditions.

For now, it would appear that Brother Derek is the horse to bet against.

CD 10  (o:Line$)  Val=0)  Bet Int=20            Min=+ 7:58:56
Prg Horse                Cont Odds Prob    $Net    Opt%  Fair Odds
  8 Barbaro                 C   4  16.1   $1.61    -4.9       6
 11 Sweetnorthernsaint      C  10  15.1   $3.32     6.6       6
 18 Brother Derek           C   3  14.2   $1.14   -14.3       7
  6 Showing Up              C  20  12.4   $5.21     8.0       8
  3 Keyed Entry             C  30  11.1   $6.91     8.2       8

Cont Prob=   69.0  Odds=0.45:1  Book Pct= 62  Dutch=   0.61:1

[TomC]

Hi All:
I have about 2 dozen e-mails asking what I am playing in the Derby, so I thought I would post them here just for fun. They are, in order:

#4 Sinister Minister
#11 SweetNorthernSaint
#18 Brother Derek
#3 Keyed Entry
#17 Lawyer Ron
#8 Barbaro

I bet the 4 and 11 to win.
I boxed the top 3 in a tri and exactas
I boxed all 6 in a tri
I keyed the 4 & 11 in tri's and supers

Just my opinion, and fun to watch on TV.

Good luck to all.

TomC

[JPinMaryland]

"I went through the last 40 Derbies and only one horse-- Spend A Buck-- won after running less than 1:10 2/5 to 6f." Rxb.

Right. ANother astute comment from Rxb, one of many that are right on.

But you've sort of waffled on a couple of horses though. I think you are holding out your real favorites from us.

[RXB]

Not waffling, JP. Honest opinions. Nothing inspires a lot of confidence. The horses on/near the front should fold, but I'm also struck by the weaknesses of the closers (and reputed closers-- still waiting for someone to explain how Point Determined is a legit closer).

If it were just a matter of matching up final times and finishing ability, Sweetnorthernsaint would look like a standout. But since I can't be sure that he can rate midpack and win, I don't have tons of confidence in him.

The rest of them all have major question marks.

[JPinMaryland]

There's at least one horse, I was thinking, "you know this guy might be a real good pick, if only he had xyz but everyone says he's bla bla" ...so I looked again at the PPs and the film and thought no he does have xyz. I go back to the message board and I see you had mentioned the very same thing! Viola, definitely thinking on the same page.


Probably a coincidence but He's one I'm keying on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by rrbauer

I don't know which "late fig" you're looking at. He and Sweetnorthernsaint both qualify for my "front-runner that closes" label and earn identical power figs from their respective last races.

I'm looking at the F3 numbers with HTR. Unless HTR is completely wrong, there is absolutely no comparison between the two horses. SM has only once in his life ran a race with an F3 ABOVE 50!?! And that was his last race, and even then, it was barely above 50....it was something like 50.27

In comparison, SNS has only ONE F3 BELOW 53!!! And that was in his second career start. His F3 numbers absolutely BLOW AWAY Sinister Minister. In fact, SNS has more than once run F3 numbers HIGHER than his F2 numbers. I find this quite unusual, and indicative that this horse may truly be a FREAK.

One of us is either very right or very wrong. Here's hoping I'm the one who is right....lol

My actual wagers are going to be keying Barbaro and SNS. I don't think there will be any value in Brother Derek, although I think he is a very talented colt.