BC Turf Mile - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

ten2oneormore · 10-28-2015, 03:54 PM

Can someone help me make sense of this race? I feel like all 12 horses have around the same chance to win.

Tom · 10-28-2015, 04:07 PM

I'm looking at the

and the

pretty closely.
Good odds, best closers.

Rex Phinney · 10-28-2015, 04:15 PM

I'll bet this one like I do all the other BC turf races.

Pick every Euro in the field, exacta box.

Done. LOL

NorCalGreg · 10-28-2015, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

I'm looking at the

and the

pretty closely.
Good odds, best closers.

Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t

. I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/new..._Meltdowns_123

Spalding No! · 10-28-2015, 05:11 PM

If the Euro form holds Make Believe will win. Reportedly likes it soft and there is rain in the forecast at Keeneland all week.

He dominated the French 2000 Guineas winning wire to wire, pulling throughout. New Bay came back to win the French Derby and the Prix Neil before running third to Golden Horn in the Arc. Highland Reel went globetrotting and took down the Secretariat at Arlington before running third in the prestigious Cox Plate in Australia. Muhaarar has won 4 straight Group 1s sprinting since the race.

Andre Fabre reportedly was only going to enter the mare in the race, but this horse showed up when post positions were drawn.

letswastemoney · 10-28-2015, 05:28 PM

Tepin won on this course by seven lengths. That is fairly significant for a turf race, even though it was against females.

I like her to win.

Impassable and Karakontie my other two.

NorCalGreg · 10-28-2015, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Tepin won on this course by seven lengths. That is fairly significant for a turf race, even though it was against females.

I like her to win.

Impassable and Karakontie my other two.

Using strictly class ratings, picked Mondialiste in that big Woodbine Mile Stakes Race that Wise Dan owned until recently --I'll try to go 2 for 2 w/Mon' again.

Lemon Drop Husker · 10-28-2015, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Using strictly class ratings, picked Mondialiste in that big Woodbine Mile Stakes Race that Wise Dan owned until recently --I'll try to go 2 for 2 w/Mon' again.

Yep.

Mondialiste was a 2nd/3rd tier turfer on the Euro scene, but was able to win as easily as a 1/2 length winner of a G1 at Woodbine last out with a somewhat troubled trip.

Esoterique and Make Believe will get solid action, but Time Test may well be the value of the race.

I'll play with Obviously or Tourist on the front end that may be able to steal it.

ebcorde · 10-28-2015, 06:58 PM

he comes with two top Horses. Maybe 1-2. Racingpost RPR rates the Horses within several points apart. But I'm hearing talk that the track favors the Americans , Horses that ran well on the surface. Tepin on paper NO WAY. Tepin with a track bias in his favor different story.

I'll probably stick with Fabre, and the 5. Make Believe ran great. Would love to hear what the Euro's think of the course. if anyone knows their opinion I hope they reply

Time test 2 lengths behind Golden Horn
The #4 took Lea out.

I surprised by the amount of quality Euro's that showed up. My guess is they like the track and they think the Americans are weak or

picks: 5,3,9.

ebcorde · 10-28-2015, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I'll bet this one like I do all the other BC turf races.

Pick every Euro in the field, exacta box.

Done. LOL

me too.

ebcorde · 10-28-2015, 07:23 PM

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live....424&category=0

ebcorde · 10-28-2015, 07:38 PM

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/ca...-10-31&tab=sc_

Golden Horn RPR highest by 10 points over the field.

Grits · 10-28-2015, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If the Euro form holds Make Believe will win. Reportedly likes it soft and there is rain in the forecast at Keeneland all week.

He dominated the French 2000 Guineas winning wire to wire, pulling throughout. New Bay came back to win the French Derby and the Prix Neil before running third to Golden Horn in the Arc. Highland Reel went globetrotting and took down the Secretariat at Arlington before running third in the prestigious Cox Plate in Australia. Muhaarar has won 4 straight Group 1s sprinting since the race.

Andre Fabre reportedly was only going to enter the mare in the race, but this horse showed up when post positions were drawn.

Spalding, in looking at DRF, TFUS, and Bris, could it not be possible that Fabre's 3, Make Believe, is in the race for the benefit of his 9, Esoterique, the mare? Neither get lasix, but this is only the 3--the colt's, 2nd time facing older. The 9 with 16 starts has 5 this year, ITM with 2-2-1. Also, Esoterique is out of a mare by Dancing Brave. The other Euros look of lesser class. While our runners always do better on firm turf which they're not likely to get on Saturday, will the front end serve those on the lead well should the turf be yielding or soft? Hhhmm. Make Believe appears to be an on or near the lead type.

Flaxman's 11, Karakontie who won this race last year is coming in 3rd off layoff, could he not run back to his figure of last year? He and the 4, Mshawish (this one could be the sleeper with Dettori) have the two highest late speeds, 113 and 129, respectively.

Grits · 10-28-2015, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t

. I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/new..._Meltdowns_123

I never write my handicapping thoughts on here. I don't bother. I've done so, and now I see this. Hell, I'm scared to read it. Matter of fact, I won't.

Tom · 10-28-2015, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t

. I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/new..._Meltdowns_123

Thanks for the link. Good article. I have the Condensed figs and this race came up as interesting. I haven't done the numbers analysis yet, but the CSP and running styles are a good way to did the races to drill deep in.