Jockey Factor

[classhandicapper]

Has anyone ever tried to isolate the value of the jockey by doing a somewhat controlled study?

By that I mean, handicap the race without looking at the jockey factor at all, then seeing how much more successful your selections are when ridden by a red hot jockey, a top 5 jockey, an average jockey, a very low percentage jockey etc...

[HUSKER55]

if push comes to shove, I give the edge to jockeys over 12%. For jockeys to make it they have to get some good mounts.

But that is just me...

[aaron]

Noel Michaels has a book on the jockey factor. Has anybody read it ?

[pondman]

Yes-- in context with my own play, which are generally singles to win.

If you are referring to ROI, my best results are somewhere at the medium, with jockeys that are competent by not superstars. Some of my methods have switches, and I would prefer to see someone little known. Another method requires the same jockey, and generally those are cellar jockeys that don't get enough mounts and are trying to pay their bills. It depends on the conditions and the track.

I'm not sure why, but I do have a number of reoccurring jockeys on singles. I've been very fortunate that I've had Gary Stevens ( he's a superstar) show up on the types of horses I single. I don't have an explanation for it. There are other jockeys I'll go all year and never bet once. Could be their style of riding. Don't know why.

There are singles I avoid. I won't play a single if Russel Baze shows up on a mount in North California. He's just too good in relationship to the other jockeys. But I'll hammer other jockeys at GG if they show up on my single-- again preferring someone further down in the standings.

I also won't play a single if a low % jockey or apprentice shows up riding on the rail, or in a race that's going to take more technical skill, such as a classic distance, and I don't think they are capable of winning.

[Robert Fischer]

a general statistical study will probably not find anything

most of the time it makes almost no difference

very few are completely incompetent and usually hurt the performance

even fewer are so elite that they promote significant move-ups

the rest comes down to specific situations that call for a specific skill.
Just like the general abilities, specific skills have a range of proficiency.

[stuball]

I wish there was a way to get the jocks agent list there is value there but
I have not figured out how to do what I want to do............
Stuball

[eurocapper]

In late biased racing (such as turf and harness) I believe it's more of a factor. If a jock can win all the races of a day then they must have some significance. They may actually have psychological "form cycles" too, will they take it easier after winning big earlier in the day.

[Overlay]

I don't think that the jockey as an isolated factor is able to make a likely winner out of a horse that figures as a longshot based on other handicapping elements -- especially since multiple top riders will normally be competing against each other in any given race. However, I still think that, between the fact that a handful of jockeys typically dominates the in-the-money standings at almost every race meeting (which I attribute to a combination of individual ability and the skill of the jockey's agent), plus the value of the selected jockey as an indication of trainer/connection intent, the jockey certainly merits weight and consideration.

I have no statistics at hand, but I would estimate the rider's overall value at about 12% of the total picture, with more influence (say around 15%) in sprints (where the effects of mistakes are magnified by the shorter distance) than in routes (maybe 9%).

Within those percentage ranges, I would view ratios of approximately 5-4-2 as applying respectively to a top-five jockey at the current meeting, a rider who has finished in the money with the horse, and a non-leading rider who has never ridden the horse previously, or else ridden it but not been able to finish in the money.

[classhandicapper]

It's an interesting issue.

I've seen instances of a jockey getting so red hot that every horse he was on was getting pounded at the windows, but they seemed to be winning at a much higher rate than the PPs suggested. So I guess it was warranted.

But it gets very hard to separate what part of it is some jockeys getting better mounts that you can see right in the PPs, what part is them actually contributing to the outcome with skilled riding, and what part might be signaling trainer intent or information that is NOT available in the PPs.

[Halyard]

[QUOTE=classhandicapper]Has anyone ever tried to isolate the value of the jockey by doing a somewhat controlled study?


No, but my guess is that the jockeys who handicap for a sense of pace in the race probably have things go their way more often. Obviously.

For anyone who may have missed this feature on Russell Baze in the news...

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/2013...t=introduction

[JohnGalt1]

One thing I note is jockey/trainer combined, if 30% with at least 4 wins at either the current meet or the last 65 days.

It's not an automatic bet, but if I play a pick three/four etc. will usually include, even if the horse has weak pp's.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by stuball

I wish there was a way to get the jocks agent list there is value there but
I have not figured out how to do what I want to do............
Stuball

Some track's Web sites provide this. I haven't clicked the link, but I've seen it on Gulfstream's site.

[Midnight Cruiser]

I think there is also such a thing as jockeys for courses. For example, the 6.5 sprint on the grass down the hill at Santa Anita seems to be dominated the last couple of years by Bejarano, Talamo, Stevens, Nakatani and Smith. Gomez used to be in the conversation as well..

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by stuball

I wish there was a way to get the jocks agent list there is value there but
I have not figured out how to do what I want to do............
Stuball

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Some track's Web sites provide this. I haven't clicked the link, but I've seen it on Gulfstream's site.

I see the Gulfstream one was edited on 1-11-14, so it's kept up to date.

At Santa Anita there is no formal posting on the web site I could find so if one wants to keep track of something like this I'd check the overnight entry sheet. On the page that has the race extras on it are stake closings & any notes, & any agent changes are listed there.

I'd also go to " the press box " & check the stable notes. Ed Golden does a good job of getting info on upcoming races & connections.

[eqitec]

My software includes a Rider Performance Index (RPI) calculated as follows:
Rider's Win % + (.3 X Place %) + (.1 X Show %).
Depending on the time year and how early it is in any given track's meeting, I apply this calculation to the rider's performance for the full last year, or the full current meeting, or an average of the two. I store the results of this calculation for reference in future races. The rider must have a threshold number of starts for the RPI to be considered.

Within each race, I sort the RPIs from highest RPIs to lowest and assign factor analysis points in that order. I do a manual upward factor analysis point adjustment for wicked hot riders at any particular meeting and another adjustment using a Trainer-Rider (combination) Performance Index (TRPI) calculated in a similar fashion as the RPI.

Most importantly, when today's rider is not the same as the rider in the horse's last race, I compare their RPIs and calculate the RPI delta between the two riders. Additional factor analysis points are added when the delta is significant. Another adjustment is calculated when today's rider outperforms his/her own RPI at certain distances, surfaces and meetings. Joe Bravo on the turf at Mth is an example where such an adjustment is applied.

One of these days I will take some time do a study of RPIs vs. finishing positions over a large sample of races. Until then, from a gut feeling standpoint, the priority order of the variables is as follows:
1. Significant RPI delta between today's rider and the horse's last race rider.
2. Significant TRPI
3. Wicked Hot Rider
4. Overall RPI

I also do all of the above for trainer performance using a TPI calculation.