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12-28-2012, 06:32 AM
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#1
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Registered User
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Location: MI
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Sacred Cows -- Track Variants and Speed
Trifecta Mike had the right idea when he started his thread TRACK VARIANTS - REAL OR BOGUS. There was a lot of good supporting proof given as to why variants are real. Ron Tiller(?) showed that variants correlate to profits. Thus one could conclude case closed. Too easy. Where Trifecta Mike was right was in challenging the premise. Allow me to make a case that Trifecta Mike never made.
Charles Carroll in his book 'Handicapping Speed' on page 138 has a graph depicting world records in real time seconds (Y axis) over distance in furlongs (X axis) resulting in a linear formula, Y = -5.5846 + 12.2X with a correlation coefficient of .9994. That's pretty tight for a correlation. Now the question becomes if variants influence speed figures why is that real time on its own correlates so well? Shouldn't this graph be all over the place without variants needing adjustments?
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12-28-2012, 07:40 AM
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#2
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
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No, because he is plotting the fastest ever - the best. If he plotted average time, they probably would be all over the place.
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12-28-2012, 07:50 AM
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#3
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
No, because he is plotting the fastest ever - the best. If he plotted average time, they probably would be all over the place.
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If variants affect speed shouldn't races ran all over the world at different tracks show a little bump at least in their correlation? If not, why not? Doesn't the surface or the wind matter to champions? Even between other champions?
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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12-28-2012, 08:28 AM
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#4
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The Voice of Reason!
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You are talking the fastest time ever run, no matter what track or when. you are factoring out all races that are not the optimal.
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Last edited by Tom; 12-28-2012 at 08:32 AM.
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12-28-2012, 08:39 AM
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#5
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
You are talking the fastest time ever run, no matter what track or when. you are factoring out all races that are not the optimal.
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Isn't this too much of a coincidence? Optimal -- what is it? Isn't a variant a guess at optimal?
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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12-28-2012, 08:50 AM
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#6
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Registered User
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Isn't this too much of a coincidence? Optimal -- what is it? Isn't a variant a guess at optimal?
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Tom has given you the answer. Less than optimal tracks have been factored out.
The equine species has physical genetic limitations. As they approach the fastest possible speed on an optimal energy track, they are limited by their biomechanics, lung - heart capacity and biochemistry.
The only way those speed records can most likely be broken is coming up with an even faster track.
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12-28-2012, 09:05 AM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
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You are looking at every single race over every single track under every single condition and selecting the fastest for each distance.
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12-28-2012, 09:18 AM
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#8
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
You are looking at every single race over every single track under every single condition and selecting the fastest for each distance.
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Bringing up the track on which the race was run, shouldn't this along cause a variant no matter how good a horse is?
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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12-28-2012, 09:31 AM
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#9
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
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It does.
Most tacks do not show up on the list.
The absolute fastest 6 furlong time ever run at Finger Lakes might be well below the average time at Golden Gate.
You are not looking at tracks, you're are looking at all times as a population.
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12-28-2012, 10:18 AM
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#10
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Tracks are involved. I can understand the perfect surface and no wind. But don't the tracks themselves have an inherent resistance that differers from one to the other? For one thing all soil composites differ in substance and depth and in turn sharpness and stretche and layouts. How could they all fit from different tracks at different distances? We are talking about a physical structure that is imposed upon every horse running on a particular track, a track resistance so to speak.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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12-28-2012, 11:18 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
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Maybe track bias is something that matters more for low class horses (in the same realm as blinkers on/off). Some harness horses seem sensitive to shoeing too.
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12-28-2012, 11:26 AM
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#12
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The Voice of Reason!
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Quote:
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How could they all fit from different tracks at different distances?
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They don't. Only the absolute fastest are used.
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12-28-2012, 12:18 PM
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#13
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Capper Al...is it your contention that track variants are unnecessary?
And you do know that Carroll himself has gravitated to track variants too?
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12-28-2012, 03:59 PM
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#14
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Capper Al...is it your contention that track variants are unnecessary?
And you do know that Carroll himself has gravitated to track variants too?
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No, I use track variants also. But this is an opportunity to learn when we see something that doesn't make sense. It kind of reminds about light theory. Is light particulars or waves? Is there a different resistance of time from track to track or not? How can it not be with the champions of champions? An argument was wanted for track variants being bogus, and here it is. Discussion open.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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12-28-2012, 04:30 PM
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#15
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
No, I use track variants also. But this is an opportunity to learn when we see something that doesn't make sense. It kind of reminds about light theory. Is light particulars or waves? Is there a different resistance of time from track to track or not? How can it not be with the champions of champions? An argument was wanted for track variants being bogus, and here it is. Discussion open.
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We are talking world records, with no timeline, no nothing. So of course over a very large sample enough very good horses are going to catch very fast tracks that world records line up. For the most part, I've used them as the basis for my speed charts, but that doesn't come close to meaning variants aren't useful.
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