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12-22-2012, 06:48 PM
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#16
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MightBeSosa
No fancy stats 4 ya , but I figured out long ago that one of the worst bets you can make is on a closer JUST because there's a ton of paper speed in the race. You'd best like them on their own merits, not to pick up the pieces of some imagined melt down, which happens much less often than expected.
Sure, once in a while they win, but not nearly enough.  |
I have discovered that closers are seldom good bets, but they have better chance if there is only one speed horse and that horse quits. With a bunch of early speed, they almost never win, at least for me.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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12-22-2012, 07:44 PM
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#17
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Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
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Randy Giles
Covers this in his E book when speed is king,and when pressers and closers come into play. One of his main points is you add all the early speed point five and above and at certain toal number the speed kills and the closers and pressers ome into play.If you are speed or pace guy it is intresting information he calls it PPG.
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12-24-2012, 08:15 AM
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#18
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Speed points are only a portion of the early speed equation. Just because horses have 6 speed points doesn't mean they actually have the ability to lead or contend through the first 2 calls. Yes almost any horse can run well to the first call and still finish well, but can they run well to the first AND 2nd call, and finish well? IMO, the first call is half the early speed equation, 1st call to 2nd call is the other half. So, flag those with the speed to the 1st call, then flag those with the speed from 1st to 2nd call, then look at which horses are flagged in both fractions. Those are the horses likely to tire and back up in the stretch.
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12-24-2012, 09:11 AM
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#19
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage
I suspect MANY times that SUPPOSED speed duel on paper did NOT ACTUALLY occur during THAT particular race...
There could be SEVERAL reasons for this...the most logical answer IS obvious!
To further complicate things...could be track bias or just flat out class differences in the race or ....
Pure figures by themselves are some what interesting...but you NEVER get the WHOLE picture/story!
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As you say, I don't think that the question can be addressed purely in terms of early speed propensity or individual running styles. Class, condition, and the ability of the jockey to make appropriate decisions during the race are also relevant.
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12-24-2012, 09:21 AM
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#20
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Overlay
As you say, I don't think that the question can be addressed purely in terms of early speed propensity or individual running styles. Class, condition, and the ability of the jockey to make appropriate decisions during the race are also relevant.
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How many time have I been screwed by Alan Garcia on front runner on track where wire to wire was the rule? He is the king of backing off when he should be going full bore.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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12-24-2012, 11:26 AM
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#21
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
How many time have I been screwed by Alan Garcia on front runner on track where wire to wire was the rule? He is the king of backing off when he should be going full bore.
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Hey, nobody said if you use running styles, early speed points, fractional pace figures/adjusted times/velocities that you won't lose races, due to things out your control. But, if you do it well, and are consistent and disciplined in the races you play, and you look for value, you certainly can win more money than you spend.
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12-24-2012, 12:05 PM
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#22
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
Hey, nobody said if you use running styles, early speed points, fractional pace figures/adjusted times/velocities that you won't lose races, due to things out your control. But, if you do it well, and are consistent and disciplined in the races you play, and you look for value, you certainly can win more money than you spend.
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Thank you for also mentioning value as a factor in assessing horses that are likely to duel.
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12-25-2012, 12:32 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 93
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I would prefer individual timing for the last fraction. If a horse gained lengths in the stretch on a tiring leader I don't believe lengths back are accurate even with the photo finish. Might also want to focus on tracks without a turf course (or not much turf racing) and more western tracks (as Beyer mentions in Beyer on Speed).
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12-25-2012, 12:52 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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IMO, one of the biggest mistakes bettors make is when they see 2 horses who appear to be need the lead types, to automatically assume they will duel. If we are talking about conventional dirt, being on/near the lead is usually the best place to be. And when there's two clear speeds, one is often just plain faster than the other, or one of them decides to rate off the pace.
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12-25-2012, 01:04 PM
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#25
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by eurocapper
I would prefer individual timing for the last fraction. If a horse gained lengths in the stretch on a tiring leader I don't believe lengths back are accurate even with the photo finish. Might also want to focus on tracks without a turf course (or not much turf racing) and more western tracks (as Beyer mentions in Beyer on Speed).
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Agree!
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12-25-2012, 01:07 PM
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#26
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
IMO, one of the biggest mistakes bettors make is when they see 2 horses who appear to be need the lead types, to automatically assume they will duel. If we are talking about conventional dirt, being on/near the lead is usually the best place to be. And when there's two clear speeds, one is often just plain faster than the other, or one of them decides to rate off the pace.
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Totally agree with this one! A "need to lead" horse must have the speed to get the lead, but even if he has it, another may press him hard enough to tire him, and then that may not happen. Each race is an individual event and anything can happen, but long term, these things tend to even out and a successful method will persist.
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12-25-2012, 01:08 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
IMO, one of the biggest mistakes bettors make is when they see 2 horses who appear to be need the lead types, to automatically assume they will duel. If we are talking about conventional dirt, being on/near the lead is usually the best place to be. And when there's two clear speeds, one is often just plain faster than the other, or one of them decides to rate off the pace.
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There are not as many "need the lead types" as we have been led to believe.
The vast majority of these types of horses are fully capable of winning from a few lengths off the pace... if given a more patient ride.
Shortcuts don't work in pace handicapping...IMO.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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12-25-2012, 01:40 PM
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#28
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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One thing I have learned (the hard way) is that a good number of those need to lead horses end up not really needing it. 
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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12-25-2012, 01:42 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
One thing I have learned (the hard way) is that a good number of those need to lead horses end up not really needing it. |
That's right.
These cookie-cutter labels don't work so well in real life.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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12-25-2012, 03:00 PM
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#30
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
One thing I have learned (the hard way) is that a good number of those need to lead horses end up not really needing it. |
That's is very true!
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