Predicted duel ??? who to bet..

[teddy]

I think this info is interesting regarding hot pace or duels. My software was set to only pull predicted duel races where there were at least 3 horses with 6 speed pts. Here was the results


race style races winners w wp wps roi

RS= F 03314 00543 16% 29% 39% 0.80 0.73 0.71
RS= E 12255 01776 14% 28% 41% 0.82 0.80 0.79
RS= P 08936 01064 12% 25% 39% 0.76 0.79 0.80
RS= S 06704 00619 09% 20% 33% 0.71 0.74 0.76
RS= R 01243 00093 07% 16% 28% 0.63 0.66 0.68
RS= N 01098 00067 06% 13% 20% 0.68 0.60 0.60

The public overbet the closers and even pressers, due to predicted speed battles. Look how bad the deep closers did! .63 for a dollar.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by teddy

I think this info is interesting regarding hot pace or duels. My software was set to only pull predicted duel races where there were at least 3 horses with 6 speed pts. Here was the results


race style races winners w wp wps roi

RS= F 03314 00543 16% 29% 39% 0.80 0.73 0.71
RS= E 12255 01776 14% 28% 41% 0.82 0.80 0.79
RS= P 08936 01064 12% 25% 39% 0.76 0.79 0.80
RS= S 06704 00619 09% 20% 33% 0.71 0.74 0.76
RS= R 01243 00093 07% 16% 28% 0.63 0.66 0.68
RS= N 01098 00067 06% 13% 20% 0.68 0.60 0.60

The public overbet the closers and even pressers, due to predicted speed battles. Look how bad the deep closers did! .63 for a dollar.

?
I don't speak Mandarin or Greek and haven't a clue what RS is offering your here.

[cj]

I suspect a LOT of bad horses get lumped into the closer category.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I suspect a LOT of bad horses get lumped into the closer category.

You beat me to it.

[eurocapper]

What's closer - c ...

[sammy the sage]

I suspect MANY times that SUPPOSED speed duel on paper did NOT ACTUALLY occur during THAT particular race...

There could be SEVERAL reasons for this...the most logical answer IS obvious!

To further complicate things...could be track bias or just flat out class differences in the race or ....

Pure figures by themselves are some what interesting...but you NEVER get the WHOLE picture/story!

[098poi]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

I suspect MANY times that SUPPOSED speed duel on paper did NOT ACTUALLY occur during THAT particular race...

There could be SEVERAL reasons for this...the most logical answer IS obvious!

To further complicate things...could be track bias or just flat out class differences in the race or ....

Pure figures by themselves are some what interesting...but you NEVER get the WHOLE picture/story!

This I find interesting and frustrating. Sometimes I will handicap a race and get an idea of pace scenario, maybe there's a front end fail (speedster burnout) and 2 or more stalkers, mid packers who run evenly with each other and may burn each other out setting up for closer or WHATEVER. Sometimes (there's that sometimes again) the horse I like will win but the race bears no relation to how I projected. When I look at the chart half the field may have run a completely different paceline then they ever have so I don't know if I picked the winner or just lucked into him. Mysteries abound! For some reason you can look back at data, results etc. and get patterns and profiles etc. but when you look forward it isn't so easy to translate that into reality. Someone needs to get "in front" of there data base and see what it looks like instead of looking backwards. Hope that makes sense.

[tophatmert]

How many speed points to you give to a horse that is running today for David Smith ,first off the claim ,taken from Rudy Rodriguez? My point is that when you claim from some guys they keep the speed for themselves and that needs to be dealt with.I like to focus on the trip that the best early speed horse will get and work from there.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I suspect a LOT of bad horses get lumped into the closer category.

I agree.

He might want to run the same scan but qualify the horses as contenders and non contenders and then see how just the contenders did.

One thing I would not be shocked by is if the public overrates closers in races with only 2 really hot speed horses. In those races one outruns the other, one gets out of the gate badly, one goes off form etc.. often enough that the duel doesn't materialize nearly as often as people think. I prefer projecting when there are 3, 4 or more speeds or one is clearly dominant over the others.

[teddy]

rs is racing style.... F = front E = early, p = presser... S = sustained R = Rear N = no clue..lol

Yes this is an all burger pull. Many bad fronts and many bad closers. IF you pull just favorites in this same pull, you get pretty good return on closers to place and show. Point was that the public is overbetting all closers in these races to win.

[mistergee]

ever try race with two 8"s

[mountainman]

The tote is now sooo style-oriented that lone closers are overbet. Especially in sprint races. Lone speed that's easy to isolate has been underlaid for quite sometime now.

Want contrarian payoffs? Well, that takes a contrarian approach to race flow and running style-a seasoned knack for looking beyond the ovious when predicting pace-scenarios and race- flow. It also takes imagination, and an understanding of how riders think.

It's rarely the lone speed in a sluggish field-or the only finisher in a speed-laden race that affords value. It's the loose leader that nobody else thought could clear, or the speedball that you suspected could flip to a stalking mode, or maybe a meltdown that few others saw coming.

Sometimes pace surprises are buried deep in a horse's history. That's one reason i always recommend that viewers pull up a horse's lifetime pp's-just to see what variety of running styles an animal may have been successful with. In other instances, a deliberate and result-altering change of tactics can lead to scores. Riders LOOOVE to be seen as the reason a horse won, and to improve on other pilots. Some automatically switch strategies when picking up a new mount. Especially if the horse has been running poorly.

Don't get me wrong: The basics still matter. But the tote will reflect what running style has the obvious advantage in a race, so any pace scenario that jumps off the page is nearly worthless. At least in my opinion.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The tote is now sooo style-oriented that lone closers are overbet. Especially in sprint races. Lone speed that's easy to isolate has been underlaid for quite sometime now.

Want contrarian payoffs? Well, that takes a contrarian approach to race flow and running style-a seasoned knack for looking beyond the ovious when predicting pace-scenarios and race- flow. It also takes imagination, and an understanding of how riders think.

It's rarely the lone speed in a sluggish field-or the only finisher in a speed-laden race that affords value. It's the loose leader that nobody else thought could clear, or the speedball that you suspected could flip to a stalking mode, or maybe a meltdown that few others saw coming.

Sometimes pace surprises are buried deep in a horse's history. That's one reason i always recommend that viewers pull up a horse's lifetime pp's-just to see what variety of running styles an animal may have been successful with. In other instances, a deliberate and result-altering change of tactics can lead to scores. Riders LOOOVE to be seen as the reason a horse won, and to improve on other pilots. Some automatically switch strategies when picking up a new mount. Especially if the horse has been running poorly.

Don't get me wrong: The basics still matter. But the tote will reflect what running style has the obvious advantage in a race, so any pace scenario that jumps off the page is nearly worthless. At least in my opinion.

Good stuff Mark.

If there's "too much" speed in a race on paper, sometimes a horse will get loose and go all the way. I have also seen your 'lone closer' phenomenon, good players used to be able to get value on 'race shape' horses, but no more.

[Robert Goren]

It has been my experience that lone speed "winning a lot" is track specific. Generally but not always, the shorter the track the more likely they are to win. Columbus, Ne is one thing and Belmont is quite another.
When Connecticut started its telephone service many years and I found a way to get PPs by fax. I thought I had died and gone to heaven. I tried betting every lone speed horse that looked like it had even a remote chance. It was a lesson I learned with real money the hard way. It was one of the few losing years I have had betting the ponies. I also figured out that a some horses will quit no matter how easy the pace. Gold mines are sometimes filled with Fool's Gold.

[MightBeSosa]

No fancy stats 4 ya , but I figured out long ago that one of the worst bets you can make is on a closer JUST because there's a ton of paper speed in the race. You'd best like them on their own merits, not to pick up the pieces of some imagined melt down, which happens much less often than expected.

Sure, once in a while they win, but not nearly enough.