having a terrible year, thinking of giving it up

[Half Smoke]

__________


I've had a quite a few good years and believed I could be profitable betting racing

my confidence is now shaken

this year, it seems like everything I do is wrong

seems like every horse I bet fades badly in the stretch - I should post my picks so my pick can be eliminated_________________)~:\

I always did much better betting sports, but I liked racing a lot more

I don't know what the reason for this is, probably just a statistical anomaly

maybe I'll just paper bet for a while to try to figure out what's going on



.

[PaceAdvantage]

The problem with becoming profitable with racing, as I see it, is the total lack of quality tools at our disposal to craft a long term, winning strategy.

When it comes to trading the equity markets, which many have rightly compared to betting on horses, there are a wealth of tools at ones disposal. Commercially available software that can easily download DECADES of data in seconds that you can in turn analyze and backtest and craft a strategy.

How many commercially available pieces of software (along with data sources) are there for doing the same when it comes to racing? And more importantly, MODERN, advanced, AFFORDABLE pieces of software?

For many people, including myself, this is what it would take to become profitable. Something that I can sit here with for weeks and months...easily testing various ideas and strategies over years of data. Thousands and thousands and thousands of races at a time.

Certain people don't need this to be profitable, but I am not one of them. These kinds of people are blessed with an ability that I don't have. And what I require doesn't really exist at the moment.

This is my concise perspective on the state of the game. I could go on, but my time is limited this morning.

[classhandicapper]

You can build your own database using Formulator PPs and the charts (or other chart services). That's what I did. There are also a few other database services. I think those are all good learning tools, but I'm so sure there's much there anymore in term of automated profitability. Once those tools are out there a lot of people are looking at the same data. I think this game is about zigging when everyone else is zagging. There are multiple factors and for some of them multiple ways of measuring the same things. Whatever is becoming more popular is losing value. You want to move away from the crowd.

[classhandicapper]

Half Smoke

If you had several good YEARS before this you are probably on firm ground. That sounds like like a bad run of luck. I would start by reviewing my bets to see if I changed anything that could account for it.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

...I would start by reviewing my bets to see if I changed anything that could account for it.

The game is something that is constantly evolving.

Analyzing one's wager history is a really good suggestion.

JCapper WagerHistory Module Help Doc:
http://www.jcapper.com/helpDocs/JCap...oryHelpDoc.htm

Screenshot of my own tickets broken out by Negative UDM Count from the Hist section of the document about three quarters of the way down from the top:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/...eportGen02.jpg

Screenshot of my own tickets broken out by PaceFit numeric value from the Retooling section of the document towards the end:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/...eportGen18.jpg

Even though I wrote the above Help Doc about 10 years ago, analyzing your wager history is still very much relevant today.

I liken not (at least occasionally) analyzing the tickets in your wager history to crossing a busy street while blindfolded.

Except that on a busy street most of the drivers will brake or swerve to avoid you.

Whereas the other players in the parimutuel pools care not if you are treated harshly.



-jp

.

[Bustin Stones]

There are 2 separate concepts here. One is cashing winners and the other is uncovering value. I believe with all the AI work done that studying history gets you winners, but studying different angles of which horses are near the peak of their form cycle will get you value. You'll need value to bet profitably. And there are a ton of ways to interpret form cycle. Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Half Smoke

If you had several good YEARS before this you are probably on firm ground. That sounds like like a bad run of luck. I would start by reviewing my bets to see if I changed anything that could account for it.

thanks for the advice - thanks to the other guys too

I'm not sure what I'm going to do from here

the game was fun for me when I was doing better

I need to think this over for a while

pardon me for stating the obvious but the vig on a common sports bet is 4.55% and on a WPS bet in racing is about 16 to 18%_______and much more on the exotics

it's a very high mountain to climb


.

[king kong]

Tn the short term or long .....

[Speed Figure]

Idk what kind of bets you’re making, but maybe you should try head to head play.

[mountainman]

I've been betting horses since I was 10, and the absolute only way I can grind consistent profit is to focus year after year on just one track, sit in creepy dark, almost vacant simulcast centers day after day watching every race intently for the slightest trip or bias nuance, while passing race after race after race....

And even then, my plus margin ain't anything sexy. Not considering all of my time that it eats. And I am much like the classic alcoholic- fighting a constant urge to abandon all discipline and chug the whole bottle.

If I gave in to action bets or even attempted to play tracks with which I'm not intimately familiar, I would get VAPORIZED.

Oddly enough, I've become more open-minded with advancing age to new ideas and fresh spins on old ones. And have finally learned that my mind (and even experience) can work against me by seizing on and contorting certain info and factors, ones that I'm fond of and familiar with and that affirm my belief system.


In other words, sometimes I see what I WANT to see when looking a race over. Some of Jason's posts really drove that home for me, but overcoming cognitive bias is much easier said than done.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by mountainman

...If I gave in to action bets or even attempted to play tracks with which I'm not intimately familiar, I would get VAPORIZED.

Good post Mark,

From the top of the Help Doc that I posted above:

Short Description - All Wagers Are Not Created Equal
The first point I want to make is that all wagers are not created equal.

In the JCapper WagerHistory Module a concept is introduced called a SHORT DESCRIPTION. Simply put, a Short Description equates to THE REASON THE PLAYER HAS FOR MAKING THE BET IN THE FIRST PLACE.

The reason for making a bet varies from bet to bet and from player to player. In the JCapper WagerHistory Module, Short Description Codes are user defined. Short Description Codes must be created ahead of time in the Setup Screen. But once a Short Description Code has been created you can reuse it again and again each time you make a bet for the reason associated with that short description code.

The idea is to create unique Short Description Codes for each of the actual reasons you have for making a bet.

The first screenshot above shows wagering activity for bets that were tagged with a Short Description Code of HUNCH.

The second screenshot above shows wagering activity for bets that were tagged with a Short Description Code of EXASVR.

The screenshots linked to above are actual hunch bets and exacta savers I made.

That old saying about a fool and his money being soon parted?

Speaking from experience it's true.



-jp

.

[classhandicapper]

overcoming cognitive bias is much easier said than done.

+1 from me.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

The game is something that is constantly evolving.

Analyzing one's wager history is a really good suggestion.

JCapper WagerHistory Module Help Doc:
http://www.jcapper.com/helpDocs/JCap...oryHelpDoc.htm

Screenshot of my own tickets broken out by Negative UDM Count from the Hist section of the document about three quarters of the way down from the top:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/...eportGen02.jpg

Screenshot of my own tickets broken out by PaceFit numeric value from the Retooling section of the document towards the end:
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/...eportGen18.jpg

Even though I wrote the above Help Doc about 10 years ago, analyzing your wager history is still very much relevant today.

I liken not (at least occasionally) analyzing the tickets in your wager history to crossing a busy street while blindfolded.

Except that on a busy street most of the drivers will brake or swerve to avoid you.

Whereas the other players in the parimutuel pools care not if you are treated harshly.



-jp

.

Hunch bets made, catalogued, and summarized by a brilliant geek. This is just too cool for school, Jeff.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

pardon me for stating the obvious but the vig on a common sports bet is 4.55% and on a WPS bet in racing is about 16 to 18%_______and much more on the exotics

it's a very high mountain to climb


.

Blockchain predictive markets are one of many emerging technology's that Pari-mutuels should be examining.


Virtually anyone can make a market, take bets and manage payouts with anonymity. Pari-mutuels are anonymous peer-to-peer in the end.. Smart contract technology running on crypto rails makes it possible.

Additionally, DAO's (decentralized autonomous organizations) are ideal technologies for fractionalized ownership of assets.
Almost all of horse ownership is fractionalized.
DAO's could be a shot in the arm for bringing in new owners.

The gambling businesses are going to change or die. Not in the future, or next year , but now. Change now or die.

The Blockchain Vig is 1%.

A peer-to-peer, blockchain-based prediction market is about to change everything


Coming this fall, Augur will allow participants to wager money on any future event of their choosing. Software will set the odds, collect the bets, and disperse the winnings. The price alone should give Nevada sportsbook operators pause; an estimated one percent of every pot will go to keep the system running. The average vig today is about 10 times that.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

__________


I've had a quite a few good years and believed I could be profitable betting racing

my confidence is now shaken

this year, it seems like everything I do is wrong

seems like every horse I bet fades badly in the stretch - I should post my picks so my pick can be eliminated_________________)~:\

I always did much better betting sports, but I liked racing a lot more

I don't know what the reason for this is, probably just a statistical anomaly

maybe I'll just paper bet for a while to try to figure out what's going on



.

Your not alone. I have a few friends who are saying the same thing. Everything they do is wrong