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03-10-2022, 05:08 AM
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#1
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Paladin & Fudge
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 347
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True
True Line hit the #7 horse today @ TPX in the 7th Race for $91.40. TL gave a probability of 6-1, the ML odds were 30-1.
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03-10-2022, 10:19 AM
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#2
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,533
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That's a lotta overlay!
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03-10-2022, 04:14 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crestridge
True Line hit the #7 horse today @ TPX in the 7th Race for $91.40. TL gave a probability of 6-1, the ML odds were 30-1.
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I always like to handicap stuff like this when someone brings it up....
First thing I look at is the favorite......
The 3/5 ML favorite was off for 341 days.....
I don't care if he was Secretariat , a horse like that will not get my $2
DONE!!!
Race gets to be an open and value
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03-10-2022, 05:58 PM
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#4
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Paladin & Fudge
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 347
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george/PA
Good point, suspect coming off injury, etc. PA, yes, when I see this, it's probably worth $2.00. When you see a entrant going off @ 44-1 and win, is not often. However, in the parameters offered by TL, this #7 entrant had the most parameters ranked 1-3, 7 parameters, the closest was #2, with only 6 parameters listed 1-3 (the entrant going off as fav.) No other entrant had more than 2 parameters listed, ranked 1-3. I didn't bet the horse, because I haven't been using this TL program much, but I guess I need to pay attention. The contender selection in this program is very good. If you have this application, you may wish to revisit!!
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03-10-2022, 06:00 PM
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#5
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Paladin & Fudge
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 347
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I lied, the #2 entrant had 8 parameters listed, sorry!!
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03-10-2022, 11:24 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,151
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I had that horse as top rated outside the favorite. The favorite did have an impressive workout tab, but broke through the gate prestart and that is why 1/2 is so dicey. I remember telling a friend one time to pass a race because the favorite was so strong... first stride out of the gate the jockey flew over his head.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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03-11-2022, 07:23 PM
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#7
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Paladin & Fudge
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 347
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ranch
Isn't that always the major question? What's the evaluation of the fav.? It's horse racing, and requires a quant database to answer the question long term ROI. Probably means most will pass on a 44-1 shot, because it's very rare they win. However, when all the pieces are put together, there was certainly a possibility of some good effort. The other entrants didn't show much. So many variables in this challenging endeavor, almost to many.
But I still plug away, trying to learn, something, and this race is a "teacher".
What have I learned? Don't necessarily bypass a big overlay, don't automatically ignore as a possibility, especially when the "quant application" says to "look"!!!
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03-11-2022, 08:20 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,151
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It's all numbers. If you never bet a 44/1, you'll never hit one. If you bet every 44/1, you'll go broke.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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03-11-2022, 10:00 PM
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#9
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Paladin & Fudge
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 347
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Yes, that's so true!
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03-15-2022, 08:16 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: White Plains, NY
Posts: 5,315
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What is True Line? Googled and couldn't find any info on it.
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andicap
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03-15-2022, 08:20 AM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap
What is True Line? Googled and couldn't find any info on it.
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Most likely an old software program....
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03-15-2022, 06:31 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 739
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Yes it's an old software put out by the late Jim Selvedge.
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03-15-2022, 07:24 PM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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And most likely uses feet per second ..
way past its usefulness...
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03-16-2022, 02:01 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
And most likely uses feet per second ..
way past its usefulness...
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If it still picks winners, it isn't past the usefulness of some people.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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03-16-2022, 02:30 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
If it still picks winners, it isn't past the usefulness of some people.
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It probably does pick winners ...
at a 29% clip and a ROI of .81
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