BetMix

[lefty359]

Both Bill and Fmazur came up with some good prices today!

[fmazur]

Churchill 6th
A nice example of the eliminator in use. All but two horses were eliminated and they ran 1/2 I am including my mix for the race.

[fmazur]

Key hit for me was the 3/4/10/11 Ex. Box in the 4th

[lefty359]

I'm beginning to think there's something to BetMix. Had a $54+ winner at GP today with it. Also had a $17+ win at Parx.
Have had several longshots during my testing phase that weren't bet. Won't be letting these slip though my fingers anymore.

[fmazur]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I'm beginning to think there's something to BetMix. Had a $54+ winner at GP today with it. Also had a $17+ win at Parx.
Have had several longshots during my testing phase that weren't bet. Won't be letting these slip though my fingers anymore.

Nice hits. It appears you are seeing how Betmix can point you to some nice long shots. I find most of my long shots show up in turf races, then maiden and maiden claimers, most notably in races rated as chaos. Over the years Betmix has put me on to several $100 plus horses. Best ever (below) where I bet the #2 and #6. The long shot races usually require you to use two and sometimes three horses.

[fmazur]

Make that #4 and #6. The #2 was a bet against chalk.

[lefty359]

I agree. I've always been a 2 horse bettor and sometimes 3. We are on the same wave length

[FocusWiz]

The interface has improved quite a bit since I gave up my subscription 6 years ago. I tried it this past weekend and had a reasonably good hit rate but had a losing result overall. It seems more robust and a bit more complicated than I remember, but they kept my mixes around (if only I could remember which ones I liked the best).

Today, I tried the free race of the day (8th Race at Parx) on my phone (that is convenient) and managed to have the and at the top of my picks. Since they had reasonable ML odds, I placed $2 on each and boxed them with the favorite for an exacta. I forgot about it and went about my day. Imagine my surprise this evening when I saw that the winner was the who paid $52.00 and an $84.40 exacta.

I think this was a bit more luck than I would have liked since I had trouble moving the sliders on my phone and did fewer factors than normal, but I seem to recall that closely tuning the tool creates very chalky picks while leaving out some factors can direct you to horses you may overlook.

Is there a way to tell MixMaker to tune for ROI instead of winners?

[fmazur]

Originally Posted by FocusWiz

Is there a way to tell MixMaker to tune for ROI instead of winners?

Yes, there is. I have found that if you can think of anything data related, Betmix can handle it. Look at the ROI column in the attached file, where I sorted by best ROI. It shows you the positive ROIs.
Click on the image to expand the size for easier reading.

[fmazur]

Originally Posted by FocusWiz

Today, I tried the free race of the day (8th Race at Parx) on my phone (that is convenient) and managed to have the and at the top of my picks. Since they had reasonable ML odds, I placed $2 on each and boxed them with the favorite for an exacta. I forgot about it and went about my day. Imagine my surprise this evening when I saw that the winner was the who paid $52.00 and an $84.40 exacta.

Nice hit. I am amazed the #3 paid so well. Betmix really liked him.

[fmazur]

Another way to get ROIs in Betmix.

[FocusWiz]

Originally Posted by fmazur

Another way to get ROIs in Betmix.

Thanks for your responses. This is certainly a valid way to find this. However, I remember tuning things years ago and trying to find ways to increase the ROI column rather than improve the Win%. It still has tune for First Place or Trifecta. I seem to recall suggesting to them that tuning for ROI might be a good alternative. However, that being said, I found when using QuickHorse (which has that feature) that a single longshot win (which could be a result of a disqualification or other issue) can cause a "mix" to look good from that perspective even though this might be the only time that particular combination would pay off.

Originally Posted by fmazur

I am amazed the #3 paid so well. Betmix really liked him.

I really did not look closely until after the race, but I also would not have expected those odds. I certainly would not have discarded the horse on my first pass through the past performances.

I appreciate your posts. Thanks!

[lefty359]

I played mostly GP Sun and 2 races from Ellis. Had some nice winners but was topped off by a $42.00 winner in 11th race at GP. The horse won easily.
Great program.

[fmazur]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I played mostly GP Sun and 2 races from Ellis. Had some nice winners but was topped off by a $42.00 winner in 11th race at GP. The horse won easily.
Great program.

Betmix can get some really good ones. I bet the #7 and #8 in this race as both
were playable long shots. This is where Betmix works best.

[fmazur]

Betmix makes it easy to find price plays as they list the 10 most likely to produce these wins. Here are their top L.S. races for July 7th along with the winning payoffs. As you can see, a lot of nice pays and only one favorite.

LONGSHOT RACES (JUL. 7)
TRACK RACE DISTANCE CLASS LS SCORE
Woodbine 7 8F Turf Claiming 43--14.90

Woodbine 4 9F Turf Mdn_Claimer 39--42.60

Gulfstream Park 11 7.5F Turf Mdn_Sp_Wt 39--44.00

Gulfstream Park 7 7.5F Turf Claiming 38--20.20

Woodbine 11 8.5F Turf Allowance 37--26.60

Laurel Park 6 8F Turf Claiming 36-- 8.80

Woodbine 6 5F Dirt Allowance 35--12.40

Woodbine 8 7.5F Turf Claiming 35--15.40

Laurel Park 5 5.5F Turf Claiming 35--14.60

Belmont Park 6 6F Turf Mdn_Claimer 34-- 3.40