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Old 05-24-2017, 09:48 AM   #1
Ray2000
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Best Bet of the Day

Weds, May 24
Chester R11......#4 Macon Georgia A-4/1......Miller, David


Non-Winners $7,500 Last 5 Starts.
(Starters in a class higher than NW $10,500 or winners in this
class in their last start are ineligible.) (PA Preferred)
Driver Selections Yannick Gingras: #6 over #4

YG drove Macon Georgia last out and the 7yo showed good improvement.(YR 154->PHL 153->PHL 152)
but Yannick has opted for the Six. Mistake? (I like Miller here)

Comments?

Betting $20 Win/Place on these BB's


Good Luck!
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Last edited by Ray2000; 05-24-2017 at 09:50 AM.
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Old 05-24-2017, 11:08 AM   #2
Jess Hawsen Arown
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Sorry. No opinion. I avoid that track like the plague --unless there is a ship in of a horse I have been following.

Driver choice is far from a magic bullet, so fret not about that angle.
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Old 05-24-2017, 12:31 PM   #3
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Chester Harrah's Philly Race 11
I am betting Win/Place
Alex Bullville (15-1)
Also Box Alex Bullville (15-1) with Macon Georgia A (4-1)
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Old 05-24-2017, 12:42 PM   #4
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Chester Harrah's Philly Race 11
I am betting Win/Place
Alex Bullville (15-1) 5 times winner this year!
Also Box Alex Bullville (15-1) with Macon Georgia A (4-1)
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Old 05-24-2017, 01:28 PM   #5
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He's a solid class 85 winner but this is tougher, 90. Hard to be 'bullish' on 62 yo Keith Torro

I like your Exbox might go 3 box with the 6 (4-5-6)
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Old 05-24-2017, 04:14 PM   #6
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Two long shot 3 (13-1) & 1 (40-1) got it and paid $319.80
We can only settle for 3rd and 4th.. LOL
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Old 05-24-2017, 04:16 PM   #7
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Stepped on a bomb,

#3....$29.60 $14.60 $4.80

$2.00 EXACTA 3-1 $319.80

Box 3 should get 1 of them on the board???....guess not.
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Old 05-24-2017, 07:06 PM   #8
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liked your horse but when they backed up the truck on it i just could not bring myself to bet an odds on fav
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Old 05-25-2017, 07:06 AM   #9
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Best Bet for today, Thursday May 25

I was going to go with this one, picked 3rd by the Morning Line,
but after looking at the program he'll be 1/9...
Saratoga R2......#6 Horsing Around-4/1.......Aldrich, Bruce Jr



So I'll try to get even with this one

Chester R6.......#4 Mcfoolery-8/1............Miller, Marcus

Fillies and Mares, Non-Winners $4,500 Last 5 Starts. (Starters in a class higher than NW $7,500 or winners in this class in their last start are ineligible.) (PA Preferred) NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER Driver Selections Andy McCarthy: #3 over #2, #8

I'll give this 6yo pacing mare a Mulligan in last race (bled?). Crowd noticed her class drop on May 15 and bet her down to 4/1. Gets 1x Lasix today. It will be sloppy and she's just so-so on the off-track, (42% OTB) Tetrick drives the best mudder,#7 (73% OTB) and a definite contending long shot at 12/1

Betting $20 Win/Place on these BB's (down $40) + 5$ Ex Box 4-7-2
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Old 05-26-2017, 06:34 AM   #10
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$60 in the red on BB's...Mcfoolery fooled me.

Best Bet for today, Friday May 26....$20 W/P
Scioto R10.......#3 Cantab Lindy-4/1.........Wrenn, Ronnie Jr
OPEN II,... POST POSITIONS MAY BE ASSIGNED C.PAGE LISTED 2-7
(I don't know what the "Listed 2" means, draw?... Infiniti As is assigned pp7)
Short 7 horse field, but all contenders.

Cantab gets a driver change from Pantaleano to R Wrenn and post relief from last week's Open II
Also playing double Wrenns (Pete/Ron) in the Exacta box, 1-3


Other possibles, (not tracking these)
Western Fair R9..#4 Top Royal-9/2.................Shepherd, Robert H

The BigM R9......#6 Hes An American-4/1.......Miller, David
The BigM R10.....#6 Macjestic Toddy N-6/1....Callahan, Corey

Yonkers R8.......#4 Prejudice-9/1...................Dube, Daniel

Mohawk R5........#5 Dreamfair Mesa-5/1.......Macdonald, James A

Hawthorne R6.....#7 Jj'S Ken-5/1..................Warren, Ridge

Best of Luck on Best of Bets to all
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Old 05-26-2017, 05:17 PM   #11
Jess Hawsen Arown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000 View Post
$60 in the red on BB's...Mcfoolery fooled me.

Best Bet for today, Friday May 26....$20 W/P
Scioto R10.......#3 Cantab Lindy-4/1.........Wrenn, Ronnie Jr
OPEN II,... POST POSITIONS MAY BE ASSIGNED C.PAGE LISTED 2-7
(I don't know what the "Listed 2" means, draw?... Infiniti As is assigned pp7)
Short 7 horse field, but all contenders.

Cantab gets a driver change from Pantaleano to R Wrenn and post relief from last week's Open II
Also playing double Wrenns (Pete/Ron) in the Exacta box, 1-3


Other possibles, (not tracking these)
Western Fair R9..#4 Top Royal-9/2.................Shepherd, Robert H

The BigM R9......#6 Hes An American-4/1.......Miller, David
The BigM R10.....#6 Macjestic Toddy N-6/1....Callahan, Corey

Yonkers R8.......#4 Prejudice-9/1...................Dube, Daniel

Mohawk R5........#5 Dreamfair Mesa-5/1.......Macdonald, James A

Hawthorne R6.....#7 Jj'S Ken-5/1..................Warren, Ridge

Best of Luck on Best of Bets to all
At first blush, the BigM on Friday looks like chalk heaven. But under closer scrutiny I see some sub-even money favorites who might have longshot competition.

Race 1 -- Another Dave Brower qualifier miss might produce a longshot here. (4) ROSESAREEXPLOSIVE 10-1 has a charted break in the qualifier. Brower adds to the mistake by acknowledging the break in his program analysis. The fact is, the filly broke because the horse in front of her broke. It was clearly an interference break. Of course, this does not guarantee that this 3yo filly trotter making her first start of the year will stay flat, but based on her 2yo form, and Tetrick staying with her over two other choices, the value is there over the obvious favorites, 1 and 6.

Race 2 -- May be looking at 1-9 on 3yog (6) EVERY WAY OUT. It sure looked like Tetrick was looking over at Miller and laughing as he went by easily -- and this is exactly the same field. If all odds were equal, you would bet the 6 with both hands. But (5) PRAIRIE MCDREAMY (5) sure had a lot of pace from way back and the price is right. And can Miller's horse (2) DEO GALILEO improve enough in his third start to turn the tables?

If the 1-6 double comes in, it will pay less than $4.


Race 5 -- Another big fave (8) GLITZY GAL who won for fun. However, Svansdedt actually pulled the pocket early with (1) ICE ATTRACTION as if he thought he could beat ARIANA G last week. She broke. Two other longshots are not ridiculous in the race (5) DREAM BABY DREAM (10-1) loaded with trot getting out late last week and (6) EVELYN (12-1) who was a personal fave of mine last year and was short in her first start. Again, a big fave to try to beat.

Race 6 -- Another potential 1-9 shot looms. It is (2) WHAT THE HILL. (1) KING OF THE HILL was backing up against him BEFORE he broke last week. Does that make him a value throwout for the $4 exacta. Maybe. But this week he adds lasix, and more importantly, adds Brian Sears. Let's see where the value lies.

Don't like either of your Big M horses. But the horse I like in the 9th are the two faves (1) and (3) so you get some value. And I think your "longshot" in the 10th will be overbet. Looking at 2, 4 or 5.
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Old 05-27-2017, 07:09 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown View Post
......And I think your "longshot" in the 10th will be overbet. Looking at 2, 4 or 5.
I hope you did more than look at , #2 paid $17.60

As for my Best bet of the Day
Friday, Cantab Won, paid. . $5.80 . $3.60

So far, Best Bets.. 3 days @ $20 W/P
Bet $120 . . Return $94

Best Bet for today, Saturday May 27
Saratoga R6...#5 Ideal Race-8/1....Devaux, Jim
Colts & Geldings - Non-Winners $3,000 last 4 starts Non-Winners 2 last 4 Allowed $400
AE: N/W $630 per start in 2017 (Minimum 10 starts) Opt. Clm. Alw. $10,000
NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER


I like both old timers here who are in for the optional 10 claim.
#1, a 14 yo who is "Claim proof", has top driver Billy Dobson
and #5, a 11yo shipper from Plainridge who gets Jim Devaux.
If TrackMaster class ratings are correct, Ideal Race has been facing tougher at PRC

Hard to use a longshot for Best Bet but this one can surprise ...Apr 24th @18/1




Others to consider:

Hawthorne R3.....#5 Young American-6/1.......Petrelli, Frank

Flamboro R3......#1 King Of Magic-5/1...........Shepherd, Robert H
Flamboro R11.....#4 Mack The Knife-10/1......Henry, Travis J

Mohawk R11.......#6 Lonewolf Currier-6/1......Ryan, Jason D

Pocono R3........#2 Dr C'S Z Tam-5/1............Miller, Marcus

Yonkers R1.......#4 Canbec Kingkazimir-6/1...Kakaley, Matt

GLA
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Old 05-27-2017, 10:03 AM   #13
Jess Hawsen Arown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000 View Post

I hope you did more than look at , #2 paid $17.60

As for my Best bet of the Day
Friday, Cantab Won, paid. . $5.80 . $3.60

So far, Best Bets.. 3 days @ $20 W/P
Bet $120 . . Return $94
You ARE Mr. Best Bet. Yes, I did play the 2 in the last race as he finished off a $56 double and a $41 pick-3. I missed the late pick-4.

Hopefully some of you heeded my early numbers as the $800 pick-5 did not take many combos to hit. As mentioned, ICE ATTRACTION was well meant in her last race against ARIANA G, and with that great filly not in this race, IA won for fun. The 7-1 win price was the longest price winner in the pick-5.

Meanwhile IA was the third leg of the $87 pick-4. and the second leg of an amazingly priced $224 pick-3 despite a 1-9 winner in the last leg. You simply never know what payoffs will be with horizontal bets.

And now its time to look at tonight's card.
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Old 05-27-2017, 11:04 AM   #14
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Ray, do have stats on Jordan Stratton, can u tell me wins by pp, wins by ML Rank, &which trainer he had the most wins with, thanks in advance.
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Old 05-27-2017, 12:31 PM   #15
Ray2000
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Ray, do have stats on Jordan Stratton, can u tell me wins by pp, wins by ML Rank, &which trainer he had the most wins with, thanks in advance.
tyler

Most of the data I collect is on horses that I have picked/bet to win.
I don't have info such as what happened to Stratton in a race where I didn't pick him,
that would require complete charts which I refuse to buy.

Stats for my pick when Stratton drove...(447 races is bare minimum needed)

1$bets . . .447
Wins . . . .136
Win% . . . .30%
1$return . $417.45
ROI . . . .0.93

Win % By ML Rank
1 . . . 122 . . .50 . . 41% (Morning Line Fave)
2 . . . 119 . . .45 . . 38%
3 . . . 65 . . . 12 . . 18%
4 . . . 50 . . . 9. . . 18%
5 . . . 36 . . . 8. . . 22%
6 . . . 28 . . . 8. . . 29%
7 . . . 22 . . . 4. . . 18%
8 . . . 5 . . . 0 . . . 0%


Win % By Post
1 . . . 81 . . . 24 . . . 30%
2 . . . 81 . . . 32 . . . 40%
3 . . . 57 . . . 18 . . . 32%
4 . . . 69 . . . 29 . . . 42%
5 . . . 51 . . . 11 . . . 22%
6 . . . 35 . . . 10 . . . 29%
7 . . . 28 . . . 7 . . . 25%
8 . . . 41 . . . 5 . . . 12%

I don't have the associated trainer on these 447 races.
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