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Old 05-07-2017, 01:55 PM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
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what did this derby teach you?

What did u learn this derby season that will benefit you in future derby wagers? For me its the following:

1. Horses dont need an "education" or to "face adversity" that's just something people say to sound smart.

2. Respect the RAN sure line.... Even more than I do...

3. Until something changes with the points system bet the horse that wins his final prep that can break well and sit off the pace and make his move around the turn.

4. Watch how Pletcher enters his horses for futures bets, he knew what he had and was no rush in running him in anything that matters until his final prep.

5. The pts system needs serious tweaking.

6. Completely dismiss the Bluegrass and Wood horses.

7. Completely dismiss any success at Tampa.... Although already knew this.
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Old 05-07-2017, 02:31 PM   #2
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It will certainly tone up my wagering for next year.
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Old 05-07-2017, 02:45 PM   #3
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Once again, the exacta consisted of two last out Brisnet 95+ LP. Once again, the exacta (and tri + super) consisted of RAN sire line. Once again, exacta consisted of two runners with fast final 3/8th in big 9F prep. Once again, TAP wins with a colt that was deserved to be one of the favorites. People who speak of his Derby record never discuss the chances of his starters. Once again, the Florida Derby winner scored. I believe that's now 6 of 14 since 2001.

I made plenty of money with a $13 AD/All Others in Future pool 4 but could have loaded up by making that wager in pool 3. I will play those smarter next year.
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Old 05-07-2017, 02:47 PM   #4
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I really thought this derby would have more pace early even in the slop...I thought the slop would serve to make the race more chaotic and that a longer price would end up in the top slot...I don't quite know why I threw AD out when I had indications that he would run well...in the back of my mind, I play out this recording that says "play longshots here...its very competitive and there's lots of horses, why accept 9/2 here...? I can get 9/2 anytime, right...?"
This, I believe, is faulty thinking...disappointed to say, I had those prices for 2nd and 3rd on my tickets...but didn't include the most probable winner in the top slot, even though I put other contenders there...crazy stuff but just real dumb on my part....
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:05 PM   #5
Gerard02
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I stuck to my guns, despite the slop. The data was too strong to back off AD. Thanks to SbCaris and his system. The data does not lie. I have to tweet my triples and supers a bit more, but I'm getting closer. At least, my exacta part wheels have paid off the past four years. Congrats to all of you who made money, yesterday.
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:49 PM   #6
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toss every foreign shipper ever, no matter what. did this anyway. now i cant feel confident about it and never second guess myself.
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:53 PM   #7
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In a really heavy slop, half the field won't even be in the race. 3 yr olds with little experience aren't going run through it from the back. This is the most water I've ever seen on the track during the Derby.

I was contemplating canceling my tickets but it's a 1.5 hour drive round trip to cancel. So I sat on my butt. Had less than a hundred in the race, but the weather really screwed this race. I don't think too many could have gotten close to the winner, but at least ten horses never had a chance
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Old 05-07-2017, 04:13 PM   #8
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The outside PP aren't as good as everyone says and the inside PP are not the kiss of death Oh the dreaded 1 hole
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Old 05-07-2017, 04:18 PM   #9
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This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race
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Old 05-07-2017, 04:31 PM   #10
dilanesp
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Don't assume any "trends" are anything other than statistical variance.
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Old 05-07-2017, 05:03 PM   #11
Mc990
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We learned the rail was good yesterday, especially for the derby. Period.

The points system makes it a more truly run race? Nonsense. Look at the tri and super yesterday... Certainly not formful.

The new points system slows the pace? Nonsense. They went 46.53 to the half. 2013 and 2015 were among the fastest opening half miles in history.

The 1 hole is ok? Nonsense. The 2 horse pulling up out of the gate certainly helped lookin at Lee grab a little more breathing room than he otherwise would have had.

As far as 5 favorites in a row... Nothing more than a statistical anomaly.

Congrats to anyone who hit the race but it's nothing more 1 data point to consider moving forward.
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Old 05-07-2017, 06:13 PM   #12
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I've suspected Irish War Cry's limit is 1 1/8 miles, and that he'd be much happier at 1 1/16 miles or shorter like his sibling Irish Strait. I think I was right.

Curlin isn't everything. There's an entire dam side to analyze.
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Old 05-07-2017, 06:21 PM   #13
thaskalos
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This Derby reminded me of something that I already knew:

After every race...another "system" is born.
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Old 05-07-2017, 06:24 PM   #14
Ruffian1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990;2164595[B
]We learned the rail was good yesterday, especially for the derby. Period. [/B]

The points system makes it a more truly run race? Nonsense. Look at the tri and super yesterday... Certainly not formful.

The new points system slows the pace? Nonsense. They went 46.53 to the half. 2013 and 2015 were among the fastest opening half miles in history.

The 1 hole is ok? Nonsense. The 2 horse pulling up out of the gate certainly helped lookin at Lee grab a little more breathing room than he otherwise would have had.

As far as 5 favorites in a row... Nothing more than a statistical anomaly.

Congrats to anyone who hit the race but it's nothing more 1 data point to consider moving forward.
Actually, we learned that on Wednesday when we knew the heavy rain was 100% for Thursday and Friday and maybe Saturday. Prior to the rain starting was when the track was graded. It was evident in both Thursday and Friday charts.

I wrote about this before and during last years Preakness if anyone is interested in better understanding track maintenance.

Hope that helps.
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Old 05-07-2017, 06:36 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race
Care to expound ?
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