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Old 05-06-2017, 06:55 PM   #1
dilanesp
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the best horse won

He duplicated his excellent Florida Derby. Congrats to Pletcher.
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Old 05-06-2017, 06:57 PM   #2
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Terrible crop.
Both horses and riders!

So many stupid rides.....where do you begin?
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Old 05-06-2017, 07:04 PM   #3
Rex Phinney
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What is that like 50 years in a row the favorite has won?

These merry go round races on dirt are getting old. I don't know what they need todo to these tracks to change it but it's awful. It eliminates any strategy from the races just go to the front and watch the track carry the speed.
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Old 05-06-2017, 07:08 PM   #4
dilanesp
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What is that like 50 years in a row the favorite has won?

These merry go round races on dirt are getting old. I don't know what they need todo to these tracks to change it but it's awful. It eliminates any strategy from the races just go to the front and watch the track carry the speed.
Great lesson in statistical variance for horseplayers. Something like 5 favorites in a row, but 26 consecutive favorites lost in the 1980's-2000's and the favorite did well in the 1970's.

Don't believe in "trends" produced by 20 races or something.
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Old 05-06-2017, 07:15 PM   #5
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He duplicated his excellent Florida Derby. Congrats to Pletcher.
I concur.
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Old 05-06-2017, 07:56 PM   #6
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While he was best today this is the type of horse people who make a profit in this game love to best against.

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop) combined with Pletcher's lack of foundness for the Preakness he's a play against as the favorite next time.

I mean it's hard to get excited about a horse who tripped out and still only ran 2:03 and a half.

Horses can improve rapidly but right now he's probably 20+ lengths slower than Arrogate.
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:05 PM   #7
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Fortunately for him, there aren't any Arrogates to beat.
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:31 PM   #8
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Fortunately for him, there aren't any Arrogates to beat.

At the moment he's certainly the tallest midget in the group.
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:38 PM   #9
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While he was best today this is the type of horse people who make a profit in this game love to best against.

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop) combined with Pletcher's lack of foundness for the Preakness he's a play against as the favorite next time.


I mean it's hard to get excited about a horse who tripped out and still only ran 2:03 and a half.

Horses can improve rapidly but right now he's probably 20+ lengths slower than Arrogate.
I have a hard time believing that the "profitable players" are lining up in order to bet against Always Dreaming in the Preakness. There ARE other races for the winning players to turn to for their profit...you know.
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Old 05-06-2017, 08:39 PM   #10
v j stauffer
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney View Post
What is that like 50 years in a row the favorite has won?

These merry go round races on dirt are getting old. I don't know what they need todo to these tracks to change it but it's awful. It eliminates any strategy from the races just go to the front and watch the track carry the speed.
Yep. Just like the Oaks yesterday.
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Old 05-06-2017, 09:52 PM   #11
dilanesp
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I have a hard time believing that the "profitable players" are lining up in order to bet against Always Dreaming in the Preakness. There ARE other races for the winning players to turn to for their profit...you know.
Agreed. He is the likely winner of the Preakness at 3 to 5.
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:30 PM   #12
n.c
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if CE had finished 3rd , how much would

the trifecta had paid??any guess????...had him at the third leg
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:18 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by SuperPickle View Post
While he was best today this is the type of horse people who make a profit in this game love to best against.

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop) combined with Pletcher's lack of foundness for the Preakness he's a play against as the favorite next time.

I mean it's hard to get excited about a horse who tripped out and still only ran 2:03 and a half.

Horses can improve rapidly but right now he's probably 20+ lengths slower than Arrogate.
I've heard the "tripped out" now for two races. Isn't the saying really good horses rarely get a bad trip?
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Old 05-07-2017, 01:54 AM   #14
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Don't all the outside speeds and pressers come 'crashing down' on the inner lanes runners? Where was everyone from the outside? We're the outer paths in the homestretch so 'dead' that nobody could reach early?
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Old 05-07-2017, 07:36 AM   #15
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Raw Time

Once again the actual final time proved to be a factor in handicapping the Derby. The most important prep races are the 9 furlong races. Always Dreaming won the Florida Derby in 1:47.2, a fast time, and the fastest 9 furlong prep race. I recall the 2015 Florida Derby won by Materiality, who unfortunately passed away, in a very slow time. The Beyer speed figure for the 2015 Florida Derby was a very strong 110, even thought the race was very slow, 1:52.3. The thinking was that the time was slow because of the track, but the time was slow because the horses were slow. The 2015 Florida Derby proved to be a negative key race.

As I've said before, the actual fractions and final times do matter.
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