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Old 03-29-2017, 01:45 PM   #1
f2tornado
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Florida Derby

1. State of Honor, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 8-1
2. Talk Logistics, Eddie Plesa Jr., Joe Bravo, 30-1
3. Charlie the Greek, Mikhail Yanakov, Leonel Reyes, 50-1
4. Always Dreaming, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 4-1
5. Quinentos, Enrique A. Sanchez, Carlos Montalvo, 50-1
6. Coleman Rocky, Gustavo Delgado, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
7. Unbridled Holiday, Patrick Biancone, Nik Juarez, 30-1
8. Impressive Edge, Dale Romans, Corey Lanerie, 12-1
9. Battalion Runner, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 3-1
10. Three Rules, Jose Pinchin, Luis Saez, 8-1
11. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano, Javier Castellano, 9-5

A couple quick notes:
Another Mr. P on top and Buckpasser-x. Dosage numbers look good.
I despise Storm Cat on top but he's got the Buckpasser-x and Dale Romans has a knack of screwing up my tickets.
Nicely bred Mr. P on top, Buckpasser-x. Lots of dosage points including 2 professional suggests horse could go long.
The favorite looks vulnerable from this post. The FOY was slow but was it the track or the horse? The dosage on this one suggests he can go far with 30 total including the rare 2 solid and 3 professional points. If there was a Belmont future wager I'd already be considering this one. He's got the Buckpasser-x as well.

Maybe I'll box those four and call it a day. I'll anxiously await the fractions for my future wagers. Fast closers in the Florida Derby have performed phenomenally on the triple crown trail.

Last edited by f2tornado; 03-29-2017 at 01:55 PM.
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Old 03-29-2017, 02:30 PM   #2
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Battalion Runner im pretty sure is scratching and either going to the Wood or to Arkansas
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Old 03-29-2017, 02:30 PM   #3
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Tornado: Always Dreaming, the 4 horse does not have Buckpasser in the X passing position.
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Old 03-29-2017, 03:49 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Battalion Runner im pretty sure is scratching and either going to the Wood or to Arkansas
Just curious PUP, what would lead you to believe that that may be possible, the scractch and journey elsewhere?...
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:37 PM   #5
f2tornado
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Tornado: Always Dreaming, the 4 horse does not have Buckpasser in the X passing position.
Correct and thanks for the note. No dam side Buckpasser period. Not sure what the heck I was looking at but it wasn't the pedigree for Always Dreaming. The horse also has a DI of 5.00 which typically doesn't bode well for the distance. I might have to toss that one from the win pool.

Last edited by f2tornado; 03-29-2017 at 05:39 PM.
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Old 03-29-2017, 06:03 PM   #6
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I'm ready to bet the house on Battalion Runner if he runs here.
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Old 03-29-2017, 08:02 PM   #7
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So. Much. Speed. In. Here.

And then we throw 9Fs for the first time at these?

Almost seems like a layup for Gunnevera, but 9Fs out of the 11 hole at GS presents many problems no matter the running style.

I'm looking at Impressive Edge as a decent shot in here. Yeah, yeah, he beat nobody last out, and in the Swale he got flat out spanked.

I'll need 8/1 at worst, but 12/1 or more and I see it as a solid WP wager.

Legit contenders in the are of front running style. That is 2 legit contenders on the rough outside at GS at 9Fs. Throw in the , and likely some others, and this thing screams meltdown.

If everybody and their dog sees that, and we get a walk, the Always Dreaming becomes a bit appetizing.
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:26 PM   #8
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While 11 were entered in the Florida Derby, only 10 are expected to start. Always Dreaming and Battalion Runner both passed the entry box for trainer Todd Pletcher, but he is expected to only send out allowance winner Always Dreaming Saturday. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez is named on both colts.

As per Bloodhorse
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:46 PM   #9
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1. State of Honor, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 8-1
2
3
4. Always Dreaming, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 4-1
5
6
7
8. Impressive Edge, Dale Romans, Corey Lanerie, 12-1
9
10. Three Rules, Jose Pinchin, Luis Saez, 8-1
11. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano, Javier Castellano, 9-5


wow....5 of the easiest tosses i've ever seen. only reason i didn't auto toss the 8 is because he shown a lil' more than them, but this horse is not only cheap but distance challenged well...he really belongs in the auto toss category as well.

the 1 and 10 don't look like the eventual winner, only possible 2nd/3rd.....and the 9 is scratched.

that leaves pletcher on the 4...who still has some questions,,,and the favorite 11.
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Old 03-30-2017, 12:02 AM   #10
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The Unbridled Holiday looks all set to run a good race, ML 30-1
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:47 AM   #11
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Always

Opinions
Always Dreaming = monster. Should bury this field.

Biancone's horse holiday? Is good enough to hit board.
Rocko Coleman closed against slow pace, have to watch replay and form opinion.
Guinever is a solid G2 type of router, but Always Dreaming is just way too good, the post draw hurts, and the odds will be way to low.
Three Rules has puncher's chance. FFOY was dominated by late/middle moves PJ and G= leaving door open for Three Rules upgrade.

Always Dreaming crushes , +becomes one of the hype horses.
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:30 PM   #12
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Additional thoughts:

I'm not big playing flattery but in his last two starts he was beat by arguably two of the best 3 year old colts in the country. Trainer 28% turning the lights back on. Decent work last Saturday. Leparoux has done well this year so I will grudgingly call the pilot a plus.

I like the sire line but the dosage is tough for the distance. Brisnet speed figures are weak but he was essentially unchallenged last out. JV has been hot at the track ending up in the winners circle more than 1 in 5 shots. Front running style could be deceiving as there was no hot pace last out. I expect a run more like his maiden races sitting just off the leaders. I predict he fades in the final panel.

Assumed to scratch otherwise intriguing.

Gotta admire the class. Speed figures decent as well. He's also what I call the horses for courses never missing the board at the track.

I don't like the outside at Gulf but I think it's a minor player given he's more of a closer. Superior and gradually albeit slowly improving speed figs and only missed the board once at the track early in career. JC also hits the winners circle about 1 in 5 shots there. I think this is a slightly vulnerable favorite but see nothing else to take a firm stand against. He will be my exotics key for most wagers.

// is probably my tri wager.
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:54 PM   #13
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// is probably my tri wager.
Fixed. Romans regularly screws up my tickets which means the 8 will place.
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Old 03-30-2017, 06:04 PM   #14
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I see a replay of the 2011 Florida Derby, with Gunnevera reprising the role of his sire, and State of Honor playing the role of a stubbornly game Shackleford.
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Old 03-30-2017, 06:16 PM   #15
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Quote:
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I see a replay of the 2011 Florida Derby, with Gunnevera reprising the role of his sire, and State of Honor playing the role of a stubbornly game Shackleford.
Really really interesting thought right there senor.

Only problem is State of Honor isn't 80/1.
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